Impressive wave about to exit Africa

[BigA]

This thread is to discuss the wave about to emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow morning. All signs indicate that it will be a fish, but it could very well develop. GFS and CMC suggests so. Right now the wave has a swirl and a lot of convection associated with it; we shall see how it holds up over water.

[Macrocane]

Euro supports development too. I really want a strong hurricane in the Atlantic to track and better if it is a fish storm.

[Gustywind]

Euro supports development too. I really want a strong hurricane in the Atlantic to track and better if it is a fish storm.

Hummm...pretty humble Macrocane , amazing humility for sure! Let's wait and see, first, the poof-test...
Don't you think that only Mother has the best answer of your question? No...? I may have it Let's take it easy!

[Gustywind]

Looks like numerous suspicious areas are doting Africa too, thus, pretty south....

[clfenwi]

UKMET has been forecasting development of this for the past three runs (at least) as well. 12Z:

WTNT80 EGRR 051800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 21.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2009 12.4N 21.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2009 13.5N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 13.0N 26.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 14.6N 28.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2009 15.9N 30.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2009 16.8N 31.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 18.2N 32.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2009 18.9N 32.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2009 19.3N 33.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Overall, I would rate it as the best global model agreement on tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic since Bill.

Looking at the Bamako upper air time section, it appears the wave axis crossed there this morning and should be over water tomorrow morning.

Wavetrak shows a good amount of vorticity with this.

Finally, a cool Hovmuller diagram showing the progression of this wave, behind 95L. Also shows the formation of Erika:

[cycloneye]

This image updates every 15 minutes and shows bulilding convection as the wave nears the coast.

[Derek Ortt]

models tend to develop this, but recurve it before 40W.

[hurricanetrack]

At least it will help boost the ACE- we simply cannot go down in history as being worse than 1997. That was, for me, the most painful year on record in terms of tracking hurricanes.

[george_r_1961]

models tend to develop this, but recurve it before 40W.

Which is what I suspect will be the story for anything else rolling off Africa the rest of this year. Early recurvature.

[Gustywind]

[O Town]

Looks pretty good ATM, but wake me up when it gets interesting.

[Macrocane]

Euro supports development too. I really want a strong hurricane in the Atlantic to track and better if it is a fish storm.

Hummm...pretty humble Macrocane , amazing humility for sure! Let's wait and see, first, the poof-test...
Don't you think that only Mother has the best answer of your question? No...? I may have it Let's take it easy!

Don't get me wrong, I was not assuring anything, but models develop this wave into a rather strong hurricane that will recurve, and that's why I meant to say that if it develops I would be very happy trackin it because it may be strong and will be on the open ocean. But you're right only mother nature/God knows what will happen and believe me I am the humblest person in the Universe

[Derek Ortt]

the 0Z NOGAPS yesterday had this approaching Africa for a landfall

[Gustywind]

Euro supports development too. I really want a strong hurricane in the Atlantic to track and better if it is a fish storm.

Hummm...pretty humble Macrocane , amazing humility for sure! Let's wait and see, first, the poof-test...
Don't you think that only Mother has the best answer of your question? No...? I may have it Let's take it easy!

Don't get me wrong, I was not assuring anything, but models develop this wave into a rather strong hurricane that will recurve, and that's why I meant to say that if it develops I would be very happy trackin it because it may be strong and will be on the open ocean. But you're right only mother nature/God knows what will happen and believe me I am the humblest person in the Universe

Ok glad to see that. Just your words tends me to thought that . Whereas don't paid to much attention to models, it's not always the true. Yeah i believe your the humblest person in the Universe, maybe only your words we're not humbles in my interpretation for sure, let me laugh a moment, i can?

[Gustywind]

Always impressive is an euphemisma :cheesy:

[OURAGAN]

GFS develops it pretty quickly:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_12.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_36.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

A low at 1005mb in the next 48 hours, moving west.

[cycloneye]

Impressive circulation.

[Gustywind]

Something to keep an eye on at this period (peak of the season)...

[Gustywind]

Quiet for early September
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 6, 2009 6:49 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
ATLANTIC
An area of low pressure about 500 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is moving to the north-northwest as it is being steered by an upper level trough to its west. It is not expected to develop into a tropical system in the next couple of days.

Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving off the African Coast and should bring some rain to the Cape Verde Islands in the next day or two. It will be monitored for development as it moves into the open waters of the Atlantic.
The remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Erika is being absorbed by an upper low east of the Bahamas.

[Fego]

At 10:45 am ET