Global model runs discussion

Frank2 · #721 Postby **Frank2** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:36 am

I don't know - according to the H5 GFS, it might be an early Fall for the midwest and Gulf coast, especially with the strong cut-off low forecast to drop southward later in the 10-day cycle, so anything that comes from the east is still likely to recurve:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

#722 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:05 pm

Derek,is the mm5fsu right about this wave off Africa passing 40W? I ask because you look at this model a lot.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu-m ... =Animation

Frank2 · #723 Postby **Frank2** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:14 pm

Far out - the NWS Chicago discussion verifies my earlier comment about the strong cut-off low and very cool temps (it seems that would include the northern Gulf coast, since the trough is forecast to extend into the Gulf):

...BUT ADVERTIZING BETTER TSTM CHCS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
FRI-FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF IMPRESSIVE DIGGING UPPER LOW FCST TO DROP
OUT OF SRN CANADA AND INTO UPR GRTLKS BY SATURDAY. ASSD COLD FRONT
LOOKS MUCH STRONGER AND CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
AIDED BY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLO ALOFT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS FCST SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN ITS A DAY 6
FCST...BUT IF NEW MODELS ARE CORRECT...WE`LL REALLY BE IN SOME
FALL WX BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. THOUGH GFS WAS OVERDOING CLOSED
LOW OVR NRN IL BY 180 HRS...BUT NEW EUROPEAN RUN SHOWS SAME
SCENARIO UNFOLDING...ONLY ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN GFS.

#724 Postby **BigA** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:52 pm

GFS and CMC 12Z runs both show a wave behind 96L developing in 5-6 day timeframe and moving more westward.

Derek Ortt · #725 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:36 pm

I dont look at FSUs mm5. I look at the MM5 that I run

blp · #726 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:12 am

00Z GFS keeps pumping out impressive waves of Africa.

384hr (fantasyland) shows one of these waves actually making it to just north of DR and looks strong with a nice High over it. As is typical from the GFS we need about 10 runs in a row to get any kind of confidence on a scenario happening.

#727 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:01 am

06Z now recurves that wave above from the 00Z...far, far out in the Eastern Atlantic.

But given this is very far out, we'll need to see some more runs to be certain.

#728 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:59 pm

12Z GFS also showing a low closing off in the Western Gulf in 5 days! Seems to move it northward toward TX.

jinftl · #729 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:05 pm

What will probably be Fred may have a sister...and possibly a brother....following in his footsteps in the coming days. (The 'noise' close to home in the Gulf and in the FL Straits is lacking consistency between runs and different models for now).

CourierPR · #730 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:48 pm

jinftl wrote:What will probably be Fred may have a sister...and possibly a brother....following in his footsteps in the coming days. (The 'noise' close to home in the Gulf and in the FL Straits is lacking consistency between runs and different models for now).

Where does that system in the FL Straits come from?

jinftl · #731 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:49 pm

rogue model run

CourierPR wrote:
jinftl wrote:What will probably be Fred may have a sister...and possibly a brother....following in his footsteps in the coming days. (The 'noise' close to home in the Gulf and in the FL Straits is lacking consistency between runs and different models for now).

Where does that system in the FL Straits come from?

ronjon · #732 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 5:17 pm

The FL straits and central GOM are phantom storms produced by the NAM which seems to develop every blob of storms out there. It's getting the crazy uncle award this year beating out last year's winner the Canadian model. :lol:

YouTube · #733 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:05 pm

Troughs get too much credit around here. Ask anyone in Port Charlotte about the "fall like" trough in 2004 that "saved" them.

And for people who Ike impacted? Trough. Enough said.

Frank2 · #734 Postby **Frank2** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:01 am

The Western Atlantic view of the 10-day GFS (H5) shows nothing of interest in the tropics, so that's through at least September 19:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500p_10d.html

#735 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:16 am

12z GFS shows low pressure on the WGOM and a new wave in Eastern Atlantic.

#736 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:21 am

GFS still shows some developemts of systems in the Eastern Atlantic in the next 10 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#737 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:11 am

00z NOGAPS develops a closed low in the SE GOM in 144hrs. and from what I have noticed the NOGAPS has not been much on phantom closed lows. Hmmmm.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

#738 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:28 am

I've noticed several runs of the GFS keep wanting to move Fred all the way across the Atlantic towards the Bahamas eventually.

What an unbelievable story if it managed to stay together and get that far west:

That is Fred in 7 days in the Central Atlantic heading west:

#739 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:34 am

Here is the GFS 06Z at 288 hours, with Fred impacting South FL, albeit the model run has low resolution.

It would truly be the story of the season considering everybody has written Fred off as a fish system, only for it to beeline west and make landfall.

What's interesting is run after run after run, the GFS insist it heads west under a ridge for days and days.

#740 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 12:31 pm

12Z shows Fred hitting South FL yet again, OK its peaking my interest:

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