Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Wow these remnants don't want to move away? The BVI, PR, and even the Northern Leewards continue to deal with these heavy showers , in spite of hopefully the relative decreasing actitvity...

*

[Gustywind]

Flooding rain hits Puerto RicoWayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 5, 2009 5:22 pm ET
TROPICAL ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

The remnants of Erika have produced flash flooding across parts of Puerto Rico. Rainfall rates as high as 4 inches per hour have occurred just south of the island. Some mountain locations have seen 7.58 inches.

As the Labor Day holiday continues, eastern Hispaniola and the southeast Bahamas could see locally flooding rain as well.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
710 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRC049-147-060200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0248.090905T2310Z-090906T0200Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-
710 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 702 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VIEQUES. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT CULEBRA AS WELL WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA EARLY THIS EVENING. ACCORDING TO LOW TO
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
MINUTES AND AT LEAST THROUGH 10 PM AST THIS EVENING. HALF TO AND
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS ADVISORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Always looking to our east...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 22N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF 10N SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
39W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A MAXIMUM
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 18N24W 15N36W 14N41W
8N50W 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION ABOVE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF ALONG 30N91W 25N95W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-100W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
86W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PORTIONS OF INLAND FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
23N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND
OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N72W
16N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 71W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 62W-66W.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N
W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BEAR 15N74W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 29N64W 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE TROPICS NEAR 17N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W
AFRICA NEAR 19N18W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO TO MOVE W AND
BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 052116
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL 8 PM AST...

OVERCAST SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THOSE ISLANDS...BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA HAVE LINGERED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE LOW LEVEL PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE
HAVE MOVED WESTWARD. THIS REMNANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CREATED THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN VERY
ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY DIFFICULT
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST VERY
CLOSE TO ST CROIX THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAY
IMPACT ST CROIX WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTERWARD...WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE WATERS NEARBY
SAINT CROIX.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

VIC010-060230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0249.090906T0027Z-090906T0230Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
827 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST THE NWS DOPPLER CONTINUE TO INDICATED A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS ST
CROIX AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS..ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 PM AST...SATURDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

Flooding rain Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands
James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 5, 2009 8:53 pm ET
TROPICAL ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

The remnants of Erika have produced flash flooding across parts of Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands. Reports of 1 to as much as 7.58 inches of rainfall have streams and rivers running extremely high and water over streets in some locations.

Residents will need to use extreme caution due to the high water the next day or so here.

As the Labor Day holiday continues, eastern Hispaniola and the southeast Bahamas could also see locally flooding rain as well as the system lifts north and west.

[cycloneye]

Good sunny sunday morning.The sun has peaked out in San Juan,although there are still some clouds.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 AM AST SUN SEP 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY...AS A TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO PULL SOME OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN SO...EXPECT A
FAIRLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS VISIBLE IN TPW
IMAGERY...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE
WILL HAVE TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. IF SKIES
DO CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH...EXPECT THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...AS THE STEERING
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESE TODAY. THIS COULD MEAN A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IN THE METRO AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
SO...WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA FINALLY
LIFTS AWAY...LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEK ON TAP FOR THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND DAILY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. THE NEXT TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...NEAR 31W AND 43W THIS MORNING...ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE MUCH...IF ANY...IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER LATER THIS
WEEK.

[Gustywind]

Hi all my carib friends Hope you're shape Glad to see Cycloneye and all my fellows to the North this morning. This story with the remnants of Erika was so long for you, right now you can have a good breath....especially as there's no fatalities reported:)

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 060805
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST SUN SEP 6 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DOPPLER WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS...BUT OVERALL OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVER
LAND.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEFT BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH DEPARTED THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL WILL LEAVE VARIABLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY AND WILL HAVE NO DIRECT
AFFECT ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS
AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...
AS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

$$

[Gustywind]

Always looking to our east....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM SONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N31W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N. A 2344 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS CONFIRMS THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 14N. A 2344 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMS
THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS TO THE W
OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ
AND A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
43W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO DRY SAHARAN DUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NARROW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 16N24W 18N30W 15N38W
10N46W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 14W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-40W.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS MOIST TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF EXTENDING
ACROSS LOUISIANA FROM 31N90W TO 27N94W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 18N99W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NW
OF A LINE FROM 30N85W TO 19N92W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 30N86W TO 22N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 21N BETWEEN 78W-85W IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF EXTENDING
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N86W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N75W. THIS UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-84W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N75W TO 3N75W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN BECOMING STRONG IN THE E CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HR...EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W TO MOVE INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W
OF 76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N67W INTRUDES INTO THE SW PORTION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N66W TO 29N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS ERN CUBA TO NEAR 22N75W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
72W-78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 61W-66W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 28N67W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 33N55W.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS AXIS ALONG 35N28W TO 20N48W. TO THE E OF
THE TROUGH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N25W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Continuing to monitor the twaves to our east. Whereas a new impressive twave will exit Africa (not mentionned in this TWD but could during the next TWD and TWO) later today or within the next 24-36H... Something to keep an eye on as usual in this period


A member of our tent Ouragan (from Guadeloupe) mentionned its presence, in the appropriate thread this morning,about : "Impressive wave about to exit Africa" :http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106502&p=1921065#p1921065

"GFS develops it pretty quickly

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_12.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_36.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif


A low at 1005mb in the next 48 hours, moving west".


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N32W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 30W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N44W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-12N AND FROM
16N-19N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO DRY SAHARAN DUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NARROW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 13N25W 17N29W 14N38W
10N46W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS MOIST THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
NW GULF HUGGING THE COAST LINE EXTENDING ALONG 30N90W 29N94W
27N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 SE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
CENTERED OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N95W TO 16N95W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N86W TO 23N81W.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF EXTENDS TO ERN CUBA NEAR
23N81W CONTINUING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N86W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N75W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA FROM
22N78W TO 20N79W. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
CONCENTRATED N OF THE BASIN OVER THE BAHAMAS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BECOMING STRONG IN THE
E CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 62W TO CONTINUE WWD ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE FLORIDA E COAST
EXTENDING FROM 27N80W TO 31N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 32N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N67W
INTRUDES INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W TO 29N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS ERN CUBA INTO THE ATLC FROM 22N78W TO NEAR 26N75W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
74W-79W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W...AND A 1025 MB
AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 33N55W. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS AXIS ALONG 36N25W TO 17N51W. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N24W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA...ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH