ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cycloneye]

New invest for wave in far Eastern Atlantic.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909061822
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2009, DB, O, 2009090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962009
AL, 96, 2009090606, , BEST, 0, 125N, 140W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0
AL, 96, 2009090612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 160W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2009090618, , BEST, 0, 125N, 180W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Gustywind]

Where are the first plots? Any models?

[cycloneye]

All model runs from tropical and global models here.

[Sanibel]

Maybe the prime season conditions will overcome the negativity that is knocking everything down.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.4N 18.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2009 12.4N 18.7W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2009 12.3N 21.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2009 12.7N 23.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2009 13.5N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 14.3N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2009 15.5N 30.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2009 16.7N 31.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 17.9N 32.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2009 19.3N 32.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2009 19.7N 32.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2009 20.0N 32.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2009 19.6N 32.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Gustywind]

Ok Luis you have open the thread Computers models for 96L. Good job as usual "Superman".

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[Gustywind]

Peak of season only 4 days away
Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 6, 2009 1:34 pm ET
ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
September 10th is the climatological peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. That is the date with the greatest likelyhood of having a hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator. This year there many not be an active hurricane on that date.

A non-tropical low pressure system is forming off the Southeast coast and it should slowly lift northward Monday and Tuesday. Even though this is a non-tropical low, it will combine with an area of high pressure over New England and produce gusty winds over 30 mph at times and rip currents from North Carolina north to Long Island through Monday. Gusty winds and rip currents could extend into southeastern New England (Rhode Island, Cape Coad, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket) Tuesday.

An area of low pressure northwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic has become greatly sheared. Strong southwesterly winds have blown the thunderstorms away from the area of low pressure. These strong shearing winds should prevent any development of the system through at least Tuesday.

A tropical wave and area of low pressure are about to come off the African coast into the eastern Atlantic. There has been a good deal of thunderstorm activity with this system and it will be monitored in the next few days for any development.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

First Bam Model plots

WHXX01 KWBC 061905
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20090906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090906 1800 090907 0600 090907 1800 090908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 18.0W 12.9N 20.9W 13.4N 24.1W 13.7N 27.5W
BAMD 12.5N 18.0W 12.7N 20.7W 13.2N 23.4W 13.9N 25.9W
BAMM 12.5N 18.0W 12.8N 20.7W 13.3N 23.5W 13.9N 26.2W
LBAR 12.5N 18.0W 12.4N 21.4W 12.7N 25.0W 13.0N 28.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090908 1800 090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 31.0W 13.5N 37.0W 13.3N 38.8W 13.7N 34.9W
BAMD 14.6N 28.4W 16.7N 32.9W 19.6N 35.8W 22.1N 36.7W
BAMM 14.6N 28.9W 16.0N 34.2W 17.5N 37.2W 18.8N 36.7W
LBAR 13.8N 31.7W 15.7N 36.9W 17.6N 38.1W 22.3N 38.3W
SHIP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS
DSHP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 18.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 10.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Gustywind]

Winds are abating in vicinity of 96L, maybe a window of opportunity is opening for a possible developpement as the TWD mentionned it:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061827 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...AND THE ITCZ SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

12N16W 12N30W 13N37W 11N42W 9N50W 7N59W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...ACCOMPANYING WHAT IS EXPECTED TO THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE. COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ABOUT 300 NM MORE TO THE WEST.
THE HURRICANE SPECIALISTS ALREADY HAVE PROCLAIMED THAT THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Image does not work, but here's the link well known about the wind shear tendency http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1745 UTC 12.8N 18.8W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[clfenwi]

Already rated classifcation by SAB

06/1745 UTC 12.8N 18.8W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Impressive, good, healthy and seems well trained... The POOF-TEST :cheesy: could be an easy hurddle to jum over if this feature continues to exhibit this nice structure given what my untrained eyes are seeing...
Let's wait and see what happens with 96L during the next couple of days

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather...

[LaBreeze]

Is this expected to be another fish?

[cycloneye]

Is this expected to be another fish?

That scenario is shown by the models (See models thread) as a weakness develops in the Central Atlantic.

[vbhoutex]

NOt trying to be a poo pooer, because this system obviously has a very good structure ATM, but I also see some outflow boundaries heading N from this system. That is usually not a good sign, but I must say that so far this one definitely has at least one of my eyes(can't take them off the rest of the basin(s)). MOre than likely, if it holds onto this structure and/or develops it even more it will go the way of the one ahead of it-fishing.