NW Caribbean TCHP higher this year than in '07 & '08

[jinftl]

With talk of a front possibly clearing parts of the northern Gulf Coast next weekend, this is an early reminder that our attention will need to start turning away from the far eastern atlantic and more towards the NW Caribbean and even Gulf of Mexico instead as we move later into September and especially into October.

Systems developing off of the tail of frontal boundaries in those locations are not unusual. Further, given the predominant east coast trough and flow that systems would take ahead of fronts, any system developing in the NW Caribbean could likely be drawn to the north and northeast, with tracks like Irene in 1999 and Wilma 2005 across Florida.

If shear remains high, development as we move through the next 8 weeks is less likely. If shear does lessen, even for a short time, and there is a disturbance in this area at the time, there is reason for concern regarding the potential strength such a system could attain. The NW Caribbean is no stranger to major hurricanes even in October....take Mitch and Wilma as extreme examples of that.

Add to this that the TCHP (depth of warm water) is much higher both in amount and surface area right now than it has been in the past 2 years on this date. The fetch of high TCHP extends from the Yucatan to Jamaica to south of Cuba, and even reaches toward the FL Keys and the SE coast of Florida. Compare current readings to readings in 2007 & 2008. This area is essentially an area of 'high octane' fuel for any system that traverses it. Rapid intensification is absolutley a possibility provided atmospheric conditions are even marginally conducive for development.


Current TCHP (9/5/09):




TCHP 9/5/08:




TCHP 9/5/07:

[cycloneye]

The TCHP may be the highest ever,but is all about what is going on in the upper levels of the atmosphere and that is the story in 2009.

[jinftl]

True, but as we saw with Bill, with a system that is in the 'right place at the right time'....i.e., in an area of lower shear, there is no reason a quick spin-up to a Cat 4 (or more) isn't possible in the 2009 Atlantic. Where Bill managed that was an area with negligible TCHP compared to the NW Caribbean.

Shear may be predominating, but at any one location, shear changes literally from day-to-day. Timing is everything....and location. With a 'perfect storm' of bad timing (atmospheric conditions less hostile/conducive to development and a disturbance in the area), a beast could take shape without any issue in the Atlantic, esp in this area of super high TCHP.

Take a look at the shear forecast for the next few days, there are certainly areas of the atlantic with less (little) shear. And some of these areas will have much less shear in 72 hours than now (for example, area around Cuba and Hispanola), just as others will have more. Luckily, there are no systems in these areas of low shear (except for possibly 96L off the Cape Verde).

The TCHP may be the highest ever,but is all about what is going on in the upper levels of the atmosphere and that is the story in 2009.

[somethingfunny]

Alot of that TCHP has to do with that at this time in 2008 Gustav had just churned up most of the water in that area, and Dean in 2007 was also pretty fresh at this time.

[JonathanBelles]

It also means nothing when we cannot get anything where the high TCHP is.

[gatorcane]

Well El Nino should prevent anything significant from getting going in the WCAR during the later part of the season. If you look back at El Nino years, the WCAR is basically shutdown late in the season, when typically it would be ative.

[jinftl]

I hope this is a typical late season el nino coming up. One thing that can not be disputed, if you are going to get a Cat 4 or 5 after October 1 in the basin, this is the area it happens.

[Sanibel]

You can never say if the descending of the northern jet will cause a sudden lull in the untypical westerlies and allow a system to form over those high potential waters.

[MGC]

Lets just hope those UL winds keep blowin.....MGC