EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA (15E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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HURAKAN
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ABPZ20 KNHC 041137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ABOUT 45
MILES EAST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
ABPZ20 KNHC 041137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ABOUT 45
MILES EAST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
336
ABPZ20 KNHC 041731
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ABOUT 40
MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
ABPZ20 KNHC 041731
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ABOUT 40
MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO.
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA...LOCATED NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO.
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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somethingfunny
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- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
Not much to see.
What is that swirl to the NW of 96E? It almost makes me think of Kevin.
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HURAKAN
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837
ABPZ20 KNHC 051140
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
ABPZ20 KNHC 051140
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
Now "Code Orange"
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
GFS predicts we'll have a TC out of this by Tuesday, but amongst the global models, is alone in this opinion.
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
GFS predicts we'll have a TC out of this by Tuesday, but amongst the global models, is alone in this opinion.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143862
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
Convection is becoming more focused... might be time to go to "Code Red".
04Z TWD:
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N122W MOVING WNW AT A
BRISK 15-17 KT. WHILE THE SYSTEM'S EXACT LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A CENTER MAY BE FORMING CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
MODEST EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW MAY FURTHER DEVELOP IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CURRENTLY... THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
04Z TWD:
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N122W MOVING WNW AT A
BRISK 15-17 KT. WHILE THE SYSTEM'S EXACT LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A CENTER MAY BE FORMING CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
MODEST EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW MAY FURTHER DEVELOP IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CURRENTLY... THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURAKAN
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- Contact:
363
WHXX01 KMIA 061248
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090906 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090906 1200 090907 0000 090907 1200 090908 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 123.2W 15.2N 124.8W 15.7N 126.4W 16.1N 127.9W
BAMD 14.6N 123.2W 15.0N 124.6W 15.4N 125.5W 15.9N 126.1W
BAMM 14.6N 123.2W 15.2N 124.7W 15.7N 125.9W 16.3N 127.2W
LBAR 14.6N 123.2W 15.0N 124.9W 15.9N 126.6W 16.8N 128.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090908 1200 090909 1200 090910 1200 090911 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 129.4W 17.4N 132.2W 19.0N 135.0W 20.8N 136.3W
BAMD 16.5N 126.5W 19.1N 127.1W 24.1N 127.3W 27.9N 123.6W
BAMM 16.7N 128.5W 18.1N 131.4W 20.5N 134.1W 23.5N 135.7W
LBAR 17.6N 129.7W 19.8N 132.6W 23.4N 135.2W 27.5N 135.6W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS 30KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 123.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 119.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 061248
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090906 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090906 1200 090907 0000 090907 1200 090908 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 123.2W 15.2N 124.8W 15.7N 126.4W 16.1N 127.9W
BAMD 14.6N 123.2W 15.0N 124.6W 15.4N 125.5W 15.9N 126.1W
BAMM 14.6N 123.2W 15.2N 124.7W 15.7N 125.9W 16.3N 127.2W
LBAR 14.6N 123.2W 15.0N 124.9W 15.9N 126.6W 16.8N 128.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090908 1200 090909 1200 090910 1200 090911 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 129.4W 17.4N 132.2W 19.0N 135.0W 20.8N 136.3W
BAMD 16.5N 126.5W 19.1N 127.1W 24.1N 127.3W 27.9N 123.6W
BAMM 16.7N 128.5W 18.1N 131.4W 20.5N 134.1W 23.5N 135.7W
LBAR 17.6N 129.7W 19.8N 132.6W 23.4N 135.2W 27.5N 135.6W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS 30KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 123.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 119.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: Invest 96E
Grabbed the wrong set of plots there Hurakan. Those are for the sickly 95L not our (relatively) vibrant 96E 
Quikscat confirms that the center is more or less in between the bulks of convection:
Quikscat confirms that the center is more or less in between the bulks of convection:
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DECREASED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DECREASED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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