WPAC:SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (0912/13W/LABUYO)

#61 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:19 am

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 26.5N 136.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 136.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.8N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.2N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.1N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z.//
NNNN

#62 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:19 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 26.9N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.1N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 31.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.6N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 136.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONTINUED LOSS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND A BROADENED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD, AND A 061138Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATING A LLCC AS STRONG AS
40 KNOTS. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM WAJIMA, JAPAN, AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT STRONG WESTERLIES HAVE BEGUN TO
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU. THESE WESTERLIES,
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET MAXIMUM AND BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, WILL
QUICKLY TURN THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36
WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. DUJUAN IS NOT PROJECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND A LESS-SATURATED AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE
ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES SHOULD RETARD THE FORMATION OF (CENTRALIZED)
DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM
WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THEN REMAIN A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
NNNN

Chacor · #63 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:14 pm

Um, it's still a severe tropical storm, why has the topic title been changed back?

WTPQ20 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 27.3N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 30.5N 138.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 090000UTC 34.5N 147.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 100000UTC 45.0N 159.9E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#64 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:37 pm

My bad. The one above posted by Luis only said TS. Fixed.

Chacor · #65 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:39 am

Thanks. JMA are not forecasting any weakening before it goes extratropical:

WTPQ20 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 27.9N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 31.0N 139.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 090600UTC 39.2N 153.7E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#66 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:00 am

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.0N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.1N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 34.8N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 136.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED, BUT A
BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND IS BEGINNING TO WRAP BACK TOWARDS THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, THE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS
STARTED TO EXPAND AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. A 062052Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS AND WITH THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD WITH THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC,
BUT AS THE CENTER DEGENERATES, POSITION CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

#67 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:01 am

ZCZC 552
WTPQ20 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 28.1N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 31.3N 140.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 090600UTC 39.2N 153.7E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

Chacor · #68 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:51 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 28.6N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 31.6N 140.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 091200UTC 38.7N 154.6E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#69 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:45 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 28.8N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 32.3N 142.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 091200UTC 38.7N 154.6E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#70 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:24 am

ZCZC 140
WTPQ20 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 31.4N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 35.9N 152.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 100600UTC 43.8N 164.8E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

#71 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:23 am

ZCZC 590
WTPQ20 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 32.0N 143.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 37.9N 156.3E 130NM 70%
MOVE ENE 31KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 101200UTC 47.2N 168.5E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

#72 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 5:03 pm

Extratropical transition is underway

Chacor · #73 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:59 pm

I disagree. JTWC twice now has tried to kill Dujuan, only to have to issue an amendment increasing its intensity. Dujuan's being a fighter and hanging on.

#74 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:04 pm

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 023
WTPN31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 41.5N 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 150.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

#75 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:31 am

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 35.3N 152.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 152.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.6N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 45.0N 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 154.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PETROPAVLOVSK, RUSSIA HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
34 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 13W REMAINS TROPICAL IN NATURE,
WITH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING A 3 TO 4 DEGREE WARM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ALOFT. THIS WARM ANOMALY HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 24. SOME
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A STRONG (TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS)
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

#76 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:49 am

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 37.2N 156.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 42.0N 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 47.8N 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.4N 157.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 945 NM SOUTH
OF PETROPAVLOVSK, RUSSIA HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 13W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED OVER COOLER WATERS (APPROXIMATELY 24 C) AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING OVER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WARM ANOMALY IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, ALTHOUGH THIS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 19 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#77 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:32 pm

ZCZC 543
WTPQ20 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 38.1N 157.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 34KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 47.8N 172.8E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

#78 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:55 pm

ZCZC 830
WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 43N 164E
MOVE NE 45KT
PRES 978HPA
MXWD 055KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 260NM NORTHWEST =
NNNN

Bye

WPAC:SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (0912/13W/LABUYO)

Re: WPAC:TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (0912/13W/LABUYO)

Re: WPAC:TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (0912/13W/LABUYO)

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