EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA (15E)

[Kingarabian]

It looks like a TD to me... When the NHC says "Showers and Thunderstorms" do they mean convection?

[brunota2003]

This system looks pretty good =] It just needs to increase the depth of the convection right over and around the center and I can see it being quickly upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

It seems storms in the EPAC have to meet higher standards than those in the ATL

[Derek Ortt]

especially than storms in the Gulf

[Macrocane]

It looks like a TD to me... When the NHC says "Showers and Thunderstorms" do they mean convection?

Well, convection is a process of the atmospheric thermodynamics, convection can produce precipitation (showers and thunderstorms) but there may be convection without precipitation.

[HURAKAN]

07/0000 UTC 15.3N 124.4W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific



Incredible

[brunota2003]

t numbers saying 30 knot winds, when quikscat is saying 40 knot winds max...which to believe?

A consensus of those two reads 35 knots.

[Kingarabian]

07/0000 UTC 15.3N 124.4W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific



Incredible

I guess we might have the next tropical storm for the eastern pacific. It seems the NHC is in no hurry to name storms in the Eastern Pacific.

[clfenwi]

Just haven't seen that one big center burst that would unquestionably seal the deal.

[clfenwi]

07/0600 UTC 15.4N 125.2W T2.5/2.5 96E -- East Pacific
Rating worthy of a tropical storm from SAB.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Should be a TD by 11 a.m.

[clfenwi]

Bumped up to 30 knots and TD 15 on 06Z best track; apparently a fair bit of difference remains between the TAFB and SAB estimates.

EP, 15, 2009090706, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1253W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M,


(edited to replace Invest best track with TD).

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

...FIFTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON FORMS...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6
WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES...1840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 125.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INCREASE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE OBSERVED A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM 0230 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHEST NON-RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. BASED ON THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. MOREOVER THE
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEIGHBORING STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD DECK INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...PERHAPS AT A FASTER RATE
THAN SHOWN HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER SLOW 285/7. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W-140W LONGITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
DURING THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEVELOPED
BAND...WITH MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 1016 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE
CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...IN SPITE OF THE GENERAL
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. GIVEN THE UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A RATHER SLOW INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 280/07. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 135W. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IN THE SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AN EVEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE THE
DEPRESSION RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS AHEAD OF IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS WEAK TO
MODERATE SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING A
PERIOD OF MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.4N 126.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.6N 127.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.0N 128.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 16.3N 129.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 16.8N 130.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[vbhoutex]

Looking good

No it's not!! It is looking REALLY, REALLY GOOD!

[CrazyC83]

Is that an EYE that I see?

[somethingfunny]

Is that an EYE that I see?

I don't see anything that looks like an eye....a little blowup of thunderstorms in the center of the CDO there, but I'm pretty sure that the circulation center is actually nearer the western edge of the convection.

[RL3AO]

Is that an EYE that I see?

Its an overshooting top.

[HURAKAN]

You're looking very Linda!