EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
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- george_r_1961
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Conditions appear less favorable now than they did this morning. The flow aloft over this system looks to be cyclonic as per the GOES shear map which for some reason is still showing upper divergence. Just to the north of this is 30-40 knots of shear.
The ridging over New England will slow the systems forward speed and possibly bend it west toward the coast. Even if tropical development doesnt occur this could be a rain event with gale force gusts along the coast of NC up into VA.
Conditions appear less favorable now than they did this morning. The flow aloft over this system looks to be cyclonic as per the GOES shear map which for some reason is still showing upper divergence. Just to the north of this is 30-40 knots of shear.
The ridging over New England will slow the systems forward speed and possibly bend it west toward the coast. Even if tropical development doesnt occur this could be a rain event with gale force gusts along the coast of NC up into VA.
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Last last few hours have spawned a small but well defined circ about 100 off shore Charleston SC.
i know its getting dark but run the loop about 20 images or so and just click near SC
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
clearly see the circ dropping sw for the time being.
or try this one
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html
i know its getting dark but run the loop about 20 images or so and just click near SC
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
clearly see the circ dropping sw for the time being.
or try this one
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
NHC left out this area at 8 PM TWO after being mentioned at the 2 PM one.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
cycloneye wrote:NHC left out this area at 8 PM TWO after being at the 2 PM one.
yeah i noticed that .. I know the shear forecast is not looking good especially if it end up a little farther NE ... farther south and east it makes it the better chance it has.. it clear as a surface circ and pressures are slowly falling. probably not a good idea to not mention it all since it will likely try to at least organize more which im sure will cause them to mention it again since the models forecast the system to be around for at least 3 days..
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- vbhoutex
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.
yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol
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- vbhoutex
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
Aric Dunn wrote:vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.
yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol
Like I said in a post about 96L, I am keeping one of my eyes on it. I better be careful or I could run out of eyes. LOL!!
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
vbhoutex wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.
yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol
Like I said in a post about 96L, I am keeping one of my eyes on it. I better be careful or I could run out of eyes. LOL!!
right.. lol
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well here is a loop that shows the circ pretty clearly..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html
if for some magical way the shear dropped a little then it probably would be something even more worth watching.. and since its drifting SW may allow for more time over water..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html
if for some magical way the shear dropped a little then it probably would be something even more worth watching.. and since its drifting SW may allow for more time over water..
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- brunota2003
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Gaston had 48 hours over water and was a LOT better organized than this...whatever it is you wanna call it.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20047.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20047.asp
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- hurricanetrack
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Well this is perfect. The low is right in my back yard so if, if, if it becomes anything more than it is now, I can take an hour or two and go check it out. How lovely. But hey, I just might do that tomorrow morning. The rain should cause quite a few problems at key intersections around town. We'll see.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
Convection burst closer to the surface feature off Charleston.


Frying pan shoals buoy



Frying pan shoals buoy

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- HURAKAN
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
629
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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- storms NC
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We are get some rain now. Wow You know when they put up a Interest It would go to the other board. Even if there ia not a closed center. And this has a closed center.
So why is it not moved to the other board?
Look 5+ inched from this is not to sneeze at. Flooding will happen.
This out of Wilmington NWC
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED
ABOUT 30NM SE OF CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATIONS INDICATE
THIS CIRCULATION IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WRAPPED AROUND THE N AND E QUADRANT SPREADING N AND NW. IR
LOOPS SHOW A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ALMOST 100NM SSE OF
CHARLESTON SC. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PART OF A BROAD INVERTED
SFC LOW COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY. THE
N-S AXIS OF THIS INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR
BY 21Z ACCORDING TO NAM-12 AND RUC-13 DEPICTIONS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO SE ALONG PENDER NEW HANOVER AND POSSIBLY BRUNSWICK COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTN. BLENDED AMSU/SSMI TPW THIS MORNING SHOWS SOLID 2
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS TODAY WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING SFC TROF AXIS.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH COAST TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INLAND. TROUGH AXIS MOVES LITTLE
TONIGHT SO PCPN FOCUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NC COASTAL ZONES
MOST WITH ONSHORE SHOWERS...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATE

So why is it not moved to the other board?
Look 5+ inched from this is not to sneeze at. Flooding will happen.
This out of Wilmington NWC
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED
ABOUT 30NM SE OF CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATIONS INDICATE
THIS CIRCULATION IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WRAPPED AROUND THE N AND E QUADRANT SPREADING N AND NW. IR
LOOPS SHOW A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ALMOST 100NM SSE OF
CHARLESTON SC. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PART OF A BROAD INVERTED
SFC LOW COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY. THE
N-S AXIS OF THIS INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR
BY 21Z ACCORDING TO NAM-12 AND RUC-13 DEPICTIONS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO SE ALONG PENDER NEW HANOVER AND POSSIBLY BRUNSWICK COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTN. BLENDED AMSU/SSMI TPW THIS MORNING SHOWS SOLID 2
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS TODAY WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING SFC TROF AXIS.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH COAST TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INLAND. TROUGH AXIS MOVES LITTLE
TONIGHT SO PCPN FOCUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NC COASTAL ZONES
MOST WITH ONSHORE SHOWERS...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATE


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- vbhoutex
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT
We are get some rain now. Wow You know when they put up a Interest It would go to the other board. Even if there ia not a closed center. And this has a closed center.
So why is it not moved to the other board?
This will not go to the Active Storms forum until it is declared an Invest or TC by the NHC. That is how we determine which forum it belongs in.
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