EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

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george_r_1961
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#21 Postby george_r_1961 » Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:17 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Conditions appear less favorable now than they did this morning. The flow aloft over this system looks to be cyclonic as per the GOES shear map which for some reason is still showing upper divergence. Just to the north of this is 30-40 knots of shear.

The ridging over New England will slow the systems forward speed and possibly bend it west toward the coast. Even if tropical development doesnt occur this could be a rain event with gale force gusts along the coast of NC up into VA.
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#22 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:57 pm

Last last few hours have spawned a small but well defined circ about 100 off shore Charleston SC.


i know its getting dark but run the loop about 20 images or so and just click near SC
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

clearly see the circ dropping sw for the time being.

or try this one
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:03 pm

NHC left out this area at 8 PM TWO after being mentioned at the 2 PM one.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:NHC left out this area at 8 PM TWO after being at the 2 PM one.


yeah i noticed that .. I know the shear forecast is not looking good especially if it end up a little farther NE ... farther south and east it makes it the better chance it has.. it clear as a surface circ and pressures are slowly falling. probably not a good idea to not mention it all since it will likely try to at least organize more which im sure will cause them to mention it again since the models forecast the system to be around for at least 3 days..
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#25 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:19 pm

Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:27 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.


yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#27 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.


yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol

Like I said in a post about 96L, I am keeping one of my eyes on it. I better be careful or I could run out of eyes. LOL!!
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#28 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:47 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the loops on and off today and especially at the last one you posted Aric I only see, at best, an elongated possible area of low pressure near the coast of SC and it seemed to be opening up to me. When I checked the buoys earlier in the day they gave no real indication of a surface circulation. Doesn't mean it hasn't changed or isn't going to change, but I sure don't see anything spinning up within the next 24 hrs. JMHO.


yeah nothing to impressive but something to watch ..
lol

Like I said in a post about 96L, I am keeping one of my eyes on it. I better be careful or I could run out of eyes. LOL!!


right.. lol
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#29 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:52 pm

well here is a loop that shows the circ pretty clearly..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html

if for some magical way the shear dropped a little then it probably would be something even more worth watching.. and since its drifting SW may allow for more time over water..
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:53 pm

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#31 Postby storms NC » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:40 pm

I was getting my med to go to bed and I heard the News say that there was a closed LLC off the south east coast of SC-NC . We are to get 3-5 + inches of rain Monday and Tuesday. But he said he didn't think they would name it cause it would be over land by the AM. Like the no name storm
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#32 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:44 pm

Anyone else being reminded strongly of Gaston 2004? Same area, though to be a weak TS at best but managed to intensify significantly. Not to say that this will of course, but the geography is enough to remind of it.
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#33 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:55 pm

Gaston had 48 hours over water and was a LOT better organized than this...whatever it is you wanna call it.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20047.asp
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#34 Postby hurricanetrack » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:57 pm

Well this is perfect. The low is right in my back yard so if, if, if it becomes anything more than it is now, I can take an hour or two and go check it out. How lovely. But hey, I just might do that tomorrow morning. The rain should cause quite a few problems at key intersections around town. We'll see.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#35 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:46 am

Convection burst closer to the surface feature off Charleston.

Image

Image

Frying pan shoals buoy

Image
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#36 Postby capepoint » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:36 am

No winds,not even a breeze, but a TON of rain since midnight here. Great Labor Day in store for the tourist! lol
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:42 am

629
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:36 am

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#39 Postby storms NC » Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:31 am

We are get some rain now. Wow You know when they put up a Interest It would go to the other board. Even if there ia not a closed center. And this has a closed center.
So why is it not moved to the other board?
Look 5+ inched from this is not to sneeze at. Flooding will happen.
This out of Wilmington NWC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED
ABOUT 30NM SE OF CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATIONS INDICATE
THIS CIRCULATION IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WRAPPED AROUND THE N AND E QUADRANT SPREADING N AND NW. IR
LOOPS SHOW A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ALMOST 100NM SSE OF
CHARLESTON SC. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PART OF A BROAD INVERTED
SFC LOW COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY. THE
N-S AXIS OF THIS INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR
BY 21Z ACCORDING TO NAM-12 AND RUC-13 DEPICTIONS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO SE ALONG PENDER NEW HANOVER AND POSSIBLY BRUNSWICK COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTN. BLENDED AMSU/SSMI TPW THIS MORNING SHOWS SOLID 2
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS TODAY WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING SFC TROF AXIS.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH COAST TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INLAND. TROUGH AXIS MOVES LITTLE
TONIGHT SO PCPN FOCUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NC COASTAL ZONES
MOST WITH ONSHORE SHOWERS...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATE :?: :?:
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#40 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:03 am

We are get some rain now. Wow You know when they put up a Interest It would go to the other board. Even if there ia not a closed center. And this has a closed center.
So why is it not moved to the other board?

This will not go to the Active Storms forum until it is declared an Invest or TC by the NHC. That is how we determine which forum it belongs in.
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