ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[jinftl]

So are you saying this isn't a Gulf threat?

Great! Pure fish storm. That's the kind everyone here likes to track. Should get a lot of chatter here on the forum now, debating back and forth as to whether it recurves at 33W or 38W. I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days.

[somethingfunny]

Great! Pure fish storm. That's the kind everyone here likes to track. Should get a lot of chatter here on the forum now, debating back and forth as to whether it recurves at 33W or 38W. I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days.

LOL

[shah8]

No, we're just going to argue whether the bend back west is significant.

THEN we figure out if it's 33 or 38 degrees W.

[dixiebreeze]

TD 7 change the thread title:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days

Most number of pages in storm threads at Active Storms forum.

2009 gets one into the top ten,Erika.Will future Fred get to the list? It depends on how long it lasts.

1-Ike=676
2-Fay=671
3-Dean=583
4-Gustav=520
5-Dolly=422
6-Ivan=352
7-Wilma=282
8-Chris=265
9-Erika=223
10-Bertha=222

[cycloneye]

TD 7 change the thread title:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

When the advisory is out,then its official.In past years,I changed titles sometimes before advisory time to find out they did not upgrade so its better to wait for the official word.

[dixiebreeze]

The advisory is out to NRL and it will soon be 5 p.m. Likely true, but your call.

[jinftl]

No storm that fails to get west of 50W will crack that list below...there have been many storms with longer lifespans than ones on the list below. All comes down to "location location location" (i.e., storms threatening landfall, esp to areas with many posters on here). Erika is the furthest east of all the storms on that list. No way a storm recurving at 40W or east generates much interest overall....this is a system for the die-hards and for those interested in the life of a system in the middle of nowhere.

I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days

Most number of pages in storm threads at Active Storms forum.

2009 gets one into the top ten,Erika.Will future Fred get to the list? It depends on how long it lasts.

1-Ike=676
2-Fay=671
3-Dean=583
4-Gustav=520
5-Dolly=422
6-Ivan=352
7-Wilma=282
8-Chris=265
9-Erika=223
10-Bertha=222

[senorpepr]

The advisory is out to NRL and it will soon be 5 p.m. Likely true, but your call.

The advisory is not out... just the number change via ATCF. ATCF is what drives NRL.


Our policy is to wait until the actual advisory package is released.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 24.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.5 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 24.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTH OF THE 2009
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. EARLIER TODAY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER NOW THE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION
...BUT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...BOTH CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.0...YIELDING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CUTS-OFF NEAR 27N40W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY
ACCOUNTS FOR INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LONGER RANGES MORE ACCURATELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE HWRF AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
WHICH BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2-3 DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 12.5N 24.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[jinftl]

Last td to form this far east?

TD 10...which became Josephine....formed at 12.4N 23.9 W on 9/2/08. Josephine dissipated due to shear in the atlantic on 9/6/08 (yes, there has been shear in other seasons than the current one!!!) Josephine only made it to 36.9W.....td 7 may not even get that far west (current forecast shows a north motion at 34.5W).

TD 10 forms:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.


And then she fizzles:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[gatorcane]

Great! Pure fish storm. That's the kind everyone here likes to track. Should get a lot of chatter here on the forum now, debating back and forth as to whether it recurves at 33W or 38W. I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days.

I love your sarcasm. Since its not going to threaten anybody in the CONUS or Caribbean, this thread will likely get trumped by some kind of blob closer to the CONUS that has basically little to no chance of development, that is getting ripped by 30K plus shear (that now covers most of the Atlantic except the far eastern Atlantic).

We could have a CAT 5 hurricane out here and the blob would get more attention that this hurricane since it is a fish.

[wxman57]

Great! Pure fish storm. That's the kind everyone here likes to track. Should get a lot of chatter here on the forum now, debating back and forth as to whether it recurves at 33W or 38W. I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days.

I love your sarcasm. Since its not going to threaten anybody in the CONUS or Caribbean, this thread will likely get trumped by some kind of blob closer to the CONUS that has basically little to no chance of development. We could have a CAT 5 hurricane out here and the blob would get more attention that this hurricane since it is a fish.

Sarcasm? I thought I was being serious.

[gatorcane]

You were being serious ? I doubt this storm is going to muster that much attention given how far it is away and how it poses no threat to any of the members that post on this board.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:
You were being serious ? I doubt this storm is going to muster that much attention given how far it is away and how it poses no threat to any of the members that post on this board.

Yeah, just fooling around.

I know that quite a few of the posters here want nothing more than a hurricane hit just to go through one and see what it's like. I used to be like that, wanting each hurricane that developed to head right for me - until I had a house and family and had a lot to lose with such a hit. Going through Ike was certainly exciting, but living with no power for 2-4 weeks across the 4th largest city in the U.S. wasn't too exciting. I think I'd prefer the calm of a fish storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Fred will be coming soon.

[Gustywind]

Looks like a fish given the first models tracks...so very good news for us in the islands. Hope this fishy trend will continue during the next couple of days, whereas as usual we could keep a small eye on TD 7 or maybe Fred?! ( tonight. ).

[Aric Dunn]

consensus .??? the discussion speaks of such a thing that does not exist.. lol
this is probably one of the worst consensus of the models i have seen at least this season and over the last couple. lol

[jinftl]

Regardless of population, weeks without power stinks. Losing your home is an entire other level of 'worse'. No one wants the aftermath of hurricanes. Some are naturally curious to experience the actual hurricane conditions. A season with 20 storms recurving east of 40W would be considered a dud compared to the season with one monster landfalling storm like was the case with Andrew. No shock there. Luckily, we only react, not cause, storms to brew and move where they do.

:uarrow:
You were being serious ? I doubt this storm is going to muster that much attention given how far it is away and how it poses no threat to any of the members that post on this board.

Yeah, just fooling around.

I know that quite a few of the posters here want nothing more than a hurricane hit just to go through one and see what it's like. I used to be like that, wanting each hurricane that developed to head right for me - until I had a house and family and had a lot to lose with such a hit. Going through Ike was certainly exciting, but living with no power for 2-4 weeks across the 4th largest city in the U.S. wasn't too exciting. I think I'd prefer the calm of a fish storm.

[caribepr]

I like fish. Even the ones that get away...