ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Gustywind]

gusty, don't worry, we all do really think of you all there in the islands.

Oh tkanks a lot my friend, i sincerely appreciate this special thought! You're not forgotten too!!! It's the big weather family

Friendly Gustywind


All the carib really tkink of you all there in / the CONUS

[vbhoutex]

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

Don't keep us in suspense!!! What do you know that even the pro-mets don't know?

[leanne_uk]

cant see it heading north just yet. Wouldnt be suprised if this tracks further west for a while longer. It does look like it is still slightly going toward the southwest from the latest images tho
Only time will tell. I look forward to waking up and checking where its at.

[Gustywind]

[expat2carib]

i see this td7 not going were alot you are saying td7 going have supprise for few of you even mets post here keep eye on td7

Don't keep us in suspense!!! What do you know that even the pro-mets don't know?

It's the troll talking A troll knows many things we don't know.

[vbhoutex]

cant see it heading north just yet. Wouldnt be suprised if this tracks further west for a while longer. It does look like it is still slightly going toward the southwest from the latest images tho
Only time will tell. I look forward to waking up and checking where its at.

In spite of the apparent current slightly S of W movement I would expect the turn towards the NW to begin before TD7 gets to 35ºW. The sat photo shows enough out ahead of this one to almost assure that imo.

[Gustywind]

Pacific Linda and a new Atlantic T.D.
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 7, 2009 6:22 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This system is centered about 160 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. It is moving west at 16 mph and is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. The name would be Fred.

The depression is bringing heavy, squally rain to the southern Cape Verde Islands Conditions should improve on the islands Tuesday. The storm should be picked up by an upper trough in the Atlantic and should be no threat to any land masses.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[wxman57]

cant see it heading north just yet. Wouldnt be suprised if this tracks further west for a while longer. It does look like it is still slightly going toward the southwest from the latest images tho
Only time will tell. I look forward to waking up and checking where its at.

In spite of the apparent current slightly S of W movement I would expect the turn towards the NW to begin before TD7 gets to 35ºW. The sat photo shows enough out ahead of this one to almost assure that imo.

Watch out for that IR imagery again. What I see are squalls being displaced southwest of the center. The lower clouds (center) are still moving west or north of west.

[Derek Ortt]

this likely does not make it to 35W. Big trough already digging

[cycloneye]

Best Track was updated with a new position further south below 12.0N.11.7N is the new position.

AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 30, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[wxman57]

Doesn't matter if it's at 10N or 8N. It's not making it to the Caribbean with the steering currents in its path. Its fate appears sealed.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is a fish, without a doubt. Thats all that really needs to be said. It will be nice to track though, at least we should have a storm active as we cross the season's peak.

[cycloneye]

Another Best Track Update has it as Fred at 35kts.This is why the advisory is late,because of these two updates.

AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

[HURAKAN]

That's why the advisories are taking so long. Fred is here!

[HURAKAN]

318
WTNT32 KNHC 080257
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 26.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

305
WTNT22 KNHC 080256
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 25.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.6N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.6N 31.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 32.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 26.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


309
WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

A RECENTLY RECEIVED TRMM PASS FROM 2324 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED
BAND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOCATION OF THE SUSPECTED CENTER.
BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FRED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CURRENTLY ANALYZES EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS OVER
FRED. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER WARM WATER...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT
TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO ICON FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO LGEM...SINCE THAT MODEL TYPICALLY HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE RECENT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AS THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT CAUSES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD IN NORTH OF FRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 11.8N 26.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 12.0N 28.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 12.6N 30.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 13.6N 31.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 14.8N 32.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 34.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

305
WTNT22 KNHC 080256
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 25.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.6N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.6N 31.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 32.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 26.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

Yep, officially Fred. Just got advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

this may need to drop to 5N to avoid the trough (but then of course, we are talking about SA landfall, lol)

[vbhoutex]

this likely does not make it to 35W. Big trough already digging

I was being generous. That trough is so obvious on the sat pics one would have to be almost blind not to see it.