Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

I am without my PC as the keyboard is dead.I am on another PC that I have to use briefly.But i expect that later today or tonight to be back at my PC with a new keyboard.

OK no problem Luis, i will try to take the relay as usual my friend
Friendly
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

TD 7 quickly forms...

000
WTNT22 KNHC 072033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 24.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 072037
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTH OF THE 2009
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. EARLIER TODAY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER NOW THE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION
...BUT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...BOTH CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.0...YIELDING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CUTS-OFF NEAR 27N40W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY
ACCOUNTS FOR INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LONGER RANGES MORE ACCURATELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE HWRF AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
WHICH BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2-3 DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 12.5N 24.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TD 7 loop.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080122 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 PM AST MON SEP 7 2009

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO AFFECT PARTS OF ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AFFECTED AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
DOMINATES THE REGION.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT LOCALIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM AST MON SEP 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEEK ON TAP...MOSTLY DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
EFFECTS WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SIGNIFICANT WAVES TO SPEAK OF.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF TROPICAL ATLC
NORTH OF 20N...SHOULD BE A VERY UNFAVORABLE WEEK OR TWO FOR ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF RELEVANCE TO OUR REGION. NEXT FEW DAYS
SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT...WITH MOISTURE ON THE DECREASE AS A TUTT
LINGERS NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. REALLY NO PATTERN CHANGE TO SPEAK OF
INTO LATE WEEK...TUTTS STAY TO OUR NORTH...SHEAR REMAINS VERY
STRONG...AND A FEW WEAK LOW LEVEL TUTT REFLECTIONS MAY MOVE
OVERHEAD BY LATE WEEK.

VERY CALM SEAS IN STORE NEXT 7 DAYS...MAX WAVE HEIGHT LESS THAN 4
FEET ALL WATERS.

AVIATION...IFR AT TJMZ THRU 22Z...VFR ALL OTHER SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 90 / 40 40 40 40
STT 78 88 79 88 / 30 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

10/17

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 072146
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 PM AST MON SEP 7 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITHOUT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST AT BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY...TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Pacific Linda and a new Atlantic T.D.
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 7, 2009 6:22 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This system is centered about 160 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. It is moving west at 16 mph and is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. The name would be Fred.

The depression is bringing heavy, squally rain to the southern Cape Verde Islands Conditions should improve on the islands Tuesday. The storm should be picked up by an upper trough in the Atlantic and should be no threat to any land masses.

[Gustywind]

Good night all...seems that TD 7 should not be a threat for the islands (an upper trough in the Atlantic shoud allow TD 7 for a recurve on the NW then N given the first TWD forecasts):D Whereas as you known we will keep a very small eye on this in case of...as we're approaching closely the peak of the hurricane season and because Mother Nature has always surprises in store. Let's wait and see, even if we're currently very far away from any threat .

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 26.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

309
WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

A RECENTLY RECEIVED TRMM PASS FROM 2324 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED
BAND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOCATION OF THE SUSPECTED CENTER.
BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FRED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CURRENTLY ANALYZES EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS OVER
FRED. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER WARM WATER...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT
TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO ICON FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO LGEM...SINCE THAT MODEL TYPICALLY HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE RECENT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AS THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT CAUSES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD IN NORTH OF FRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 11.8N 26.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 12.0N 28.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 12.6N 30.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 13.6N 31.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 14.8N 32.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 34.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080840
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 27.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTNT22 KNHC 080840
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 27.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


000
WTNT42 KNHC 080841
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

FRED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE STORM IS EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BASED ON THE
BANDING...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE AT LEAST 3.0. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET AT 45 KT.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHORT-TERM
ENVIRONMENT...FRED CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY
3. BEYOND THAT TIME...A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FRED. THAT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN...WILL PROBABLY
INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 DOES NOT
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUITE AS FAST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND
275/13. THE NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
OF FRED IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ERODED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 28N AND 40W. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
FRED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVLOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 WITH A VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HINTS AT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT AT 96-120
HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE FRED MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN 5
DAYS...BUT ARE BEING TREATED AS OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 11.8N 27.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

Hi everybdoy looks like the weather is deteriorating a bit here in Guadeloupe. It's overcast, grey, even pretty moist, wind are calm. Showers seems coming in vicinity of my location.
Given our Pro mets of Meteo-France, we should deal today with numerous and menacing clouds bringing showers and scattered tstorms. During the afternoon things could improve steadily...






http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html
Latest weather conditions in Guadeloupe
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at Sep 08, 2009 - 07:00 AM EDTSep 08, 2009 - Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TFFR 081100Z 12003KT 8000 -SHRA FEW013CB SCT020 BKN043 25/24 Q1013 TEMPO 3000 TSRA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Sep 08 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ESE 3 light rain showers
6 AM (10) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 3
5 AM (9) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2 rain showers
4 AM (8) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) N 3 rain showers
3 AM (7) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm showers in the vicinity
2 AM (6) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) WSW 2
1 AM (5) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm
Midnight (4) Sep 08 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) Calm

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE SEP 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA DRIFTS
SLOWLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A STRONG
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AND HOLDS THROUGH THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE TIP IS WEAK AND IS STILL NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
EXTENDS WEAKLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 14N 60W TO 19N 51W AND IS ADVANCING WEST NORTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 30N AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THE RESULTING FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN
DESCENDING AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STALLS SOME 300-400 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MOISTURE IS NOW EXITING THE REGION AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DUE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN MIMIC IMAGERY AND SHOWS ROTATION AROUND ITS CENTER
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION ALONG A NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST AXIS. THIS ROTATION HAS PULLED SOME DRY AIR ALL THE WAY
AROUND IT SUCH THAT DRY AIR HAS ENTERED BEHIND THE WEST LEG OF THE
WAVE...IN THE CLASSICAL INVERTED-V SHAPE... AND IS NOT ONLY DRIER
THAN THE AIR AHEAD OF IT BUT ALSO THREATENS TO CUT THE MOISTURE
IN THE WAVE IN TWO. THE WEST LEG WILL ARRIVE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB
FOLLOWS THIS EASTERN LEG OF THE WAVE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO WARM
THE NORTHEAST COAST A FEW DEGREES AND BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS...
OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL
FORCE ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
FRONT DOWN TO CUBA AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO OUR NORTH...WITH
LITTLE EFFECT HERE. ALSO MODELS FORM SEVERAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES...ONE OF WHICH HAS DEVELOPED...TROPICAL STORM FRED...BUT
AT THIS TIME M0DEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING THEM CLOSE TO THE AREA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE EFFECT WILL
BE FELT MOST IN THE AREAS THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING
THE SUMMER MONTHS ANYWAY...NAMELY THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS. AT THE
MOMENT FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS IS ALMOST DUE EAST AND IS THREATENING
TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ
BETWEEN 08/16-22Z WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET AS WINDS CONTINUE GENTLE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 40 40 30
STT 88 79 87 79 / 30 40 40 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/12

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 080921
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST TUE SEP 8 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS
UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

FRED...

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 245 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
25W-30W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. CIMSS
WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MAXIMUM OF 850 MB VORTICITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 15N BETWEEN 53W-59W. AS
THE WAVE MOVES BENEATH A MODERATELY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE AS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N53W TO 16N62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATELY
DRY AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. NO DEEP CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 14N23W 8N29W 5N40W
10N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
FRED AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN
12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LEVEL FEATURES AND AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE
CONUS THROUGH 25N90W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
GENERATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WRN GULF FROM 23N-28N W OF 88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TSTMS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN
91W-99W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SRN MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS SW FROM A SW NORTH ATLC UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
25N68W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR COASTAL COSTA RICA. NLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FOUND W OF 80W AND ARE PROVIDING AN OVERALL
SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE
S OF CUBA AND ARE LOCATED FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 77W-82W. MOSTLY
DRY AIR ALOFT ON SWLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 80W. AS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE LOW LEVELS...PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF 14N E OF 70W. ALSO WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 58W...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W AND
EXTENDS SSW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER TO THE
E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N68W AND IS GENERATING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 63W-74W. INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N39W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 25N37W TO 18N38W. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
TROUGH NEAR 20N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY N OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ERN
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NW OF
TROPICAL STORM FRED NEAR 16N33W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
20090908.1015.07LFRED.45kts-1000mb-118N-267W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... p&TYPE=vis

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE