ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[MGC]

Considering the size of the trough, I would not be surprized if Fred don't hit the Azores or Iberian Peninsula....MGC

[HurricaneRobert]

Fred is the same as Frederick!

[thetruesms]

this likely does not make it to 35W. Big trough already digging

I was being generous. That trough is so obvious on the sat pics one would have to be almost blind not to see it.

I sure wouldn't say that



I think a blind person would even have a halfway decent shot at seeing it

[Cyclenall]

Doesn't matter if it's at 10N or 8N. It's not making it to the Caribbean with the steering currents in its path. Its fate appears sealed.

I haven't read through this thread mostly but don't tell me there was talk of whether or not it could affect the Caribbean . It's like Hurricane Danielle (2004) but maybe weaker?

[caribepr]

No, there was not talk about it affecting the Caribbean. Someone might have mentioned Canada though...

[alan1961]

Considering the size of the trough, I would not be surprized if Fred don't hit the Azores or Iberian Peninsula....MGC

More like the UK MGC, UK takes most of what comes off the atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

Fred looking really good

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 27.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

FRED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE STORM IS EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BASED ON THE
BANDING...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE AT LEAST 3.0. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET AT 45 KT.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHORT-TERM
ENVIRONMENT...FRED CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY
3. BEYOND THAT TIME...A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FRED. THAT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN...WILL PROBABLY
INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 DOES NOT
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUITE AS FAST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND
275/13. THE NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
OF FRED IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ERODED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 28N AND 40W. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
FRED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVLOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 WITH A VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HINTS AT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT AT 96-120
HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE FRED MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN 5
DAYS...BUT ARE BEING TREATED AS OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 11.8N 27.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Fred seems healthy this morning...

[vegastar]

Eye like feature?

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 080840
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 27.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[leanne_uk]

Considering the size of the trough, I would not be surprized if Fred don't hit the Azores or Iberian Peninsula....MGC

More like the UK MGC, UK takes most of what comes off the atlantic.

Oh please dont have this coming towards the uk once it finishes off. We have had enough rain and wind the past few weeks from what was bill and danny. I am enjoying the fact we have high pressure over up right now and sunshine forecast for a few days lol.
Nah i dont care where this heads, lookin forward to seeing where and what fishy fred does

[cycloneye]

Eye like feature?

It looks like an eyewall may be forming in that microwave image.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

There is no time to waste

[attallaman]

There is no time to waste

Meaning exactly what?

[cycloneye]

Meaning exactly what?

He meant what I said 4 posts above.

[Lurker]

Climatology for 9/12/09 is 6/3/1. Fred is looking good this morning and if he becomes a cane as predicted then we'll be 6/2/1. All in all not too far away from where we should be. The next hurricane typically forms by 9/22/09.

[HURAKAN]

Based on satellite images and specially the microwave, the next advisory the intensity will likely be 60-65 mph.