Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[attallaman]

You say possibly moving towards TX then SE/LA? How about coastal MS? Are we talking about a big rain event?

[attallaman]

Nice blow up earlier today, but you can tell by just watching this loop that it is pretty hostile in gulf and BOC.
Worth keeping an eye on tho.

That is interesting. Was this one of the areas of interest Dr. Steve Lyons was discussing on TWC this past Sunday?

[wxman22]

Euro shows a closed low sitting off the upper texas coast...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9090800!!/

[O Town]

Blowing up again this a.m.




Shear has lessened but still pretty strong.

[Macrocane]

Here in El Salvador it's very cloudy at this time with light rain. It seems that moisture is entering from the coast, the wind is coming from the south, generally at this hour it comes from the northeast, I tell you this because this scenario is vey typical when there is a low pressure system in the Yucatan peninsula, Gulf of Honduras or Bay of Campeche, so maybe a low pressure is trying to form on BOC, it would be interesting to confirm or deny that with surface observations.

[wxman57]

If you read my thread that I started last night, this is the first step of the possible NW Gulf development on Friday - movement of a vorticity center into the BoC from the Pacific.. So this thread is about the same threat.

[wxman57]

The first part of the process has begun - the movement of a vort max into the BoC. Next step is for this area of storms to move northward up the coast of Mexico and interact with an approaching front/trof later this week, forming a low east of Brownsville.

[Ivanhater]

Nam 84 HOURS



GFS..180 HOURS



cmc..SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHERN GULF

[Macrocane]

If you read my thread that I started last night, this is the first step of the possible NW Gulf development on Friday - movement of a vorticity center into the BoC from the Pacific.. So this thread is about the same threat.

I read it and it's a very interesting scenario, this thread should be merged with the one you started.

[Ivanhater]

Nam 84 HOURS



GFS..180 HOURS



cmc..SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHERN GULF

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner concerning all the features of wxman57's Topic...

Deep tropical moisture resides along and S of I-10 this morning with local radar showing numerous showers and thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. We shall see a continued threat of daily seabreeze storms through Thursday with PWS lingering in the 1.8-2.2 inch range, little to no capping, and favorable mid level heights. Best chances will be around Matagorda Bay...for a change...with much lower chances inland from Conroe to College Station.

End of the week into the weekend is a real mess at the moment as Gulf surface trough attempts to form a closed surface low off the TX coast and a powerful Fall-like upper air storm system develops over the plains sending a strong cold front southward.

Will try and tackle the Gulf issue first. Nearly all models show the formation of a weak surface low/trough along the Mexico/S TX coast Friday. GFS is the most aggressive in bringing this system up the TX coast as a closed storm. Such patterns are common in September where highly sheared tropical storms will form along an inverted trough axis over the period of several days...usually along the tail end of a frontal boundary and most of the time not purely tropical in nature. Due to the fact that convection continues to cluster this morning in the Bay of Campeche I will buy into this solution of some sort of sheared tropical system near S TX by late Friday moving NE toward SE TX/SW LA this weekend. Wind shear forecasts are not very favorable for development and all factors point toward a highly lopsides system with much of the adverse weather located east of any surface center. At this time the majority of the impacts may well be east of our region...but the potential bears close watch. Will probably need to start bumping the seas from the nearly flat conditions of late into at least the 3-4 foot range Friday into the weekend as coastal winds begin to respond to lowering pressures. With little to no dune protection left in the wake of Ike sustained E to ENE winds may result in coastal overwash issues and this will have to be watched toward the end of the week if tides begin to come up.

As the Gulf system is approaching the area so will be a decent looking cold front. Models are not a strong as yesterday with the frontal push, but feel will the Gulf low passing by Saturday this should help draw the front southward and off the coast. Upstream temps. over FWD on Sunday may only reach the upper 70's...but we should not see such cooling here. Will see how this plays out as models are starting to back away from the idea and the bigger concern is the Gulf surface feature and its late week impacts.

TS FRED:

New tropical storm has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This storm poses not threat to any land areas and should turn northward over the eastern Atlantic into a deep trough.

[lrak]

Can't win for losing, everything always moves in just north of Corpus, well maybe we'll have some swell with offshore winds. That would help the S.TX drought pain...grr.

We've had a few pop up storms but it just makes the grass look half way alive for a few days then its dead and brown again.

[TexWx]

WX:
"I can see a vorticity center move across the isthmus of Mexico tomorrow into the BoC then slowly northward off the coast of Mexico."

I was just about to post that this is happening, and you beat me to it.

[wxman57]

Can't win for losing, everything always moves in just north of Corpus, well maybe we'll have some swell with offshore winds. That would help the S.TX drought pain...grr.

We've had a few pop up storms but it just makes the grass look half way alive for a few days then its dead and brown again.

There may be enough instability along the TX coast to get you some rain. But I think the bulk of the serious rain will be from LA-AL. Maybe we can get a bit in Houston.

[southerngale]

Euro shows a closed low sitting off the upper texas coast...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9090800!!/

That should bring us some much needed rain, hopefully!

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues a Special Weather Statement somewhat related to the events wxman57 has spelled out...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-081800-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
830 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...

A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE SHORT-LIVED AND USUALLY WILL NOT REACH THE
GROUND. IF A FUNNEL CLOUD STRENGTHENS AND TOUCHES THE GROUND MINOR
DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUDS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS...WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Portastorm]

This figures ... something even remotely tropical will probably form in the NW Gulf and it will move away from us and give someone else the rain.

I got a rock!!

[bohaiboy]

Our local pro weather service just issued an alert for the area in SW GOM. Says could bring heavy rain to SE TX (yeah) and SW La but at the current time doesn"t look conducive to development.

[srainhoutx]

This figures ... something even remotely tropical will probably form in the NW Gulf and it will move away from us and give someone else the rain.

I got a rock!!

I know Portastorm. I was certainly hoping that you folks in S/Central TX would benefit. Arrg. HPC thoughts this morning...snipet...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 12 2009 - 12Z TUE SEP 15 2009



OTHER DETAIL ISSUES INCLUDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE GUIDANCE BRING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING THE WAVE.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE WHICH KEEPS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH
LAST NIGHTS PROGS. 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BRING A
LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE BAROCLINIC TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY...SO IT WAS INCLUDED WITHIN THE
PRESSURES AS A WEAKER FEATURE.

ROTH

[Sanibel]

Convection moving into Bay Of Campeche (BOC). No discernable surface entrainment yet.


We could really use that Baroclinic surface trough here. We are behind on rainy season normal rainfall amounts.