ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

Thanks! I've been waiting for it to get "out in the open."

[cycloneye]

Dvorak.

08/1745 UTC 12.0N 29.2W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


18 UTC Best Track.

55kts.

AL, 07, 2009090818, , BEST, 0, 120N, 293W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Shewtinstar]

Now those are pretty pictures!!!

[HURAKAN]

Based on the Dvorak estimates and the latest microwave that showed an organizing eye-wall, I would raise the intensity to 70 mph at 5 pm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 081824
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC TUE SEP 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090908 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090908 1800 090909 0600 090909 1800 090910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 29.3W 12.8N 32.1W 13.3N 34.8W 13.5N 37.0W
BAMD 12.0N 29.3W 12.6N 31.4W 13.6N 33.1W 14.7N 34.3W
BAMM 12.0N 29.3W 12.5N 31.6W 13.0N 33.6W 13.6N 34.9W
LBAR 12.0N 29.3W 12.7N 31.6W 13.8N 34.3W 15.1N 36.5W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 68KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090910 1800 090911 1800 090912 1800 090913 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 38.2W 12.1N 38.2W 10.0N 37.7W 8.5N 37.7W
BAMD 16.1N 34.8W 19.0N 32.7W 22.9N 29.0W 27.2N 23.4W
BAMM 14.4N 35.4W 15.8N 33.8W 17.6N 31.4W 21.9N 31.4W
LBAR 16.6N 38.2W 19.3N 38.8W 22.9N 37.7W 27.2N 34.0W
SHIP 66KTS 54KTS 37KTS 24KTS
DSHP 66KTS 54KTS 37KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 29.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 24.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Sanibel]

Those purple streamline maps Wx57 shows never lie.

[HURAKAN]

Another burst over the center. Fred nearing hurricane intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Latest on Fred. Also notice the remnants of 95L in the top of the loop.

[leanne_uk]

now I really like this picture HURAKAN

[CrazyC83]

With that hidden eye not fully closed yet, I would say 60 kt for an intensity.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2009 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 12:07:35 N Lon : 29:30:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.8mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Center Temp : -63.7C Cloud Region Temp : -62.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt07L.html

[HURAKAN]

341
WTNT32 KNHC 082031
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND FRED IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


776
WTNT42 KNHC 082031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

HIGH-RESOLUTION METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FRED REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH PROMINENT BANDING AND
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. A 1514Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWS
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYEWALL. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
CONFLICTING SIGNALS PRESENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E PASS SHOWED
A CLOSED RING PATTERN ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A
HARBINGER OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE. IN COMBINATION WITH
WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR
INCREASING BY TOMORROW...WHICH COULD LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM SHOWING ONLY A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL STILL HAVE FRED REACHING
CATEGORY 2 STATUS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS...STRONGER
SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FRED...AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FRED WAS ONLY A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/12. A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY FEATURE STEERING FRED. HOWEVER A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO GRADUALLY BEND FROM WEST-NORTHWEST...
NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH BY DAY THREE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN THIS MORNING. AFTER 72
HR...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTING MORE OF A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER CYCLONE INTERACTING MORE WITH THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LONGER-RANGE...
BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 12.1N 29.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 12.8N 31.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 15.2N 33.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.4N 34.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 18.0N 34.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Based on the Dvorak estimates and the latest microwave that showed an organizing eye-wall, I would raise the intensity to 70 mph at 5 pm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Discussion 5:00 PM:

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

[HURAKAN]

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB


ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND FRED IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

[alan1961]

Freddy no nightmare on Elm street or any other street in the US

[ozonepete]

Based on the Dvorak estimates and the latest microwave that showed an organizing eye-wall, I would raise the intensity to 70 mph at 5 pm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice call, Hurakan.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the Dvorak estimates and the latest microwave that showed an organizing eye-wall, I would raise the intensity to 70 mph at 5 pm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice call, Hurakan.

Thanks. It was an easy call!

[HURAKAN]

Fred could be a hurricane as I type. Strong CDO over the center likely hindering the center from being visible like it was earlier.

[leanne_uk]

How long do we think till we have a confirmed hurricane?

It has to be before i go to bed lol