Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[Kludge]

Yeah, Port...

That's always frustrated me...when a tropical thing heads this way and gets hopes up for at least some rain, and then moves in east of us. In that case we not only don't get additional moisture, but the system actually causes subsidence and sucks what little afternoon activity we would normally get away from us. It's like if we're not going to get a direct hit, we should really be hoping that it never forms in the first place.

I'm crossing my fingers that the shear will keep it weak, and bring a peaceful swath of moisture up the entire coast.

[Sanibel]

[ROCK]

WXMN57 starts a thread about a possible GOM feature in 2009...no way!!!

[btangy]

A nice piece of analysis wxman57. Wouldn't have caught my attention unless you pointed it out. As you stated, a lot will hinge on how that upper level cut off evolves over the C US. If it doesn't sag too far S, the inverted surface trough stewing for a few days combined with this small piece of energy in the BOC definitely point to the possibility of development. Looks like a much needed soaking rain for S TX at the very least.

[Ptarmigan]

If you read my thread that I started last night, this is the first step of the possible NW Gulf development on Friday - movement of a vorticity center into the BoC from the Pacific.. So this thread is about the same threat.

Moderators, please merge this thread with WXMan57's Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?. Thanks.

[lrak]

Can't win for losing, everything always moves in just north of Corpus, well maybe we'll have some swell with offshore winds. That would help the S.TX drought pain...grr.

We've had a few pop up storms but it just makes the grass look half way alive for a few days then its dead and brown again.

There may be enough instability along the TX coast to get you some rain. But I think the bulk of the serious rain will be from LA-AL. Maybe we can get a bit in Houston.

Take all those voodoo pins out of your lrak voodoo doll and pour water all over it.

[wxman57]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS. It's now developing the upper low over south-central TX vs. the NW Gulf. That would mean rain all along the Texas coast vs. offshore. This is in agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. So maybe a better chance of rain all along coastal section of Texas this weekend.

As for tropical development, conditions just aren't right this week. But with lingering moisture in the western Gulf early next week (and decreasing shear), we may have to keep a close eye out for a possible spin-up.

[attallaman]

Raining pretty good here right now although it's probably not related to that weather in the BOC but it's a steady train of showers coming in from the GOM. No lightning or thunder yet, just lots of rain.

[Portastorm]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS. It's now developing the upper low over south-central TX vs. the NW Gulf. That would mean rain all along the Texas coast vs. offshore. This is in agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. So maybe a better chance of rain all along coastal section of Texas this weekend.

As for tropical development, conditions just aren't right this week. But with lingering moisture in the western Gulf early next week (and decreasing shear), we may have to keep a close eye out for a possible spin-up.

Now I like the sound of that wxman 57 ... a nice upper low parked over ... oh, say the Hill Country? The idea of 3-5 days of steady rainfall on top of my catastrophic, Biblical drought would be a beautiful thing.

[vbhoutex]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS. It's now developing the upper low over south-central TX vs. the NW Gulf. That would mean rain all along the Texas coast vs. offshore. This is in agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. So maybe a better chance of rain all along coastal section of Texas this weekend.

As for tropical development, conditions just aren't right this week. But with lingering moisture in the western Gulf early next week (and decreasing shear), we may have to keep a close eye out for a possible spin-up.

Now I like the sound of that wxman 57 ... a nice upper low parked over ... oh, say the Hill Country? The idea of 3-5 days of steady rainfall on top of my catastrophic, Biblical drought would be a beautiful thing.

Can I be a part of your dream? Should I try and find Lucy?
I guess I am going to have to get serious about looking at the models and sats and see if I can learn something from all of this or at least have some somewhat intelligent input.

[Macrocane]

This thing is still advecting moisture from the Pacific, it has been cloudy all morning and we've had some light to moderate rainfall and temperatures are at this time 28 ºC (82 ºF) the days before we've had temperatures of 31 ºC (88 ºF). If it doesn't move too much we could have another day of clouds and rain, I hope so.

[lrak]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS. It's now developing the upper low over south-central TX vs. the NW Gulf. That would mean rain all along the Texas coast vs. offshore. This is in agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. So maybe a better chance of rain all along coastal section of Texas this weekend.

As for tropical development, conditions just aren't right this week. But with lingering moisture in the western Gulf early next week (and decreasing shear), we may have to keep a close eye out for a possible spin-up.

I know its several days away but thanks for that optimistic forecast WXman57!

[TexWx]

Seems that whatever was there this morning (BOC), has gone poof...

If you look here, it seems to have just "thrown up" that outflow....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[Ptarmigan]

Now I like the sound of that wxman 57 ... a nice upper low parked over ... oh, say the Hill Country? The idea of 3-5 days of steady rainfall on top of my catastrophic, Biblical drought would be a beautiful thing.

I pray that you get lots of rain. You deserve much as my area needs.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Low pressure, WSW wind, and a little "eddy" after the poof?

[Nimbus]

There is a small cyclonic spin way down in the southern part of the BOC almost right on the "95" with a single thunderstorm near it. For you blob watchers it may be worth a zoom before sunset.

[wxman22]

If the 12z GFS is correct there would be some much needed beneficial rain over southeast texas...

[TexWx]

Nimbus, I was looking at that too...

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

lower pressure and still WSW wind....hmmm.

[Flyinman]

Wxman, fingers and toes crossed here on that run. However, we definitely do not need any flooding!!