ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

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leanne_uk
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#321 Postby leanne_uk » Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:04 pm

caribepr wrote:I applaud you who are not pro mets following this one! Many say they have the interest but it often is about what concerns them personally and I will admit I am more than half way among that group. But I'm totally enjoying you all watching for the next development of what looks by all signs to be a fish but a very interesting BIG fish!

Good on ya! You may be few but you back up the talk (and of course a pro met can and should wait til morning!!! A life job like this has to be paced or insanity takes over).

That's my story, comfortable with the consensus of the models, and I'm stickin' to it (though I'll admit, deep somewhere in my rock brain I'm waiting until the north turn to let Fred stop being a potential Flint stone)


This is my first full and intense track of what is now a certain cane. I am loving it and i am totally hooked so glad to have a fish lol.

Seriously though finding this site has made me feel better about my obsession with reading the charts and tracking sat pictures. I am not strange like my friends think :p
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#322 Postby caribepr » Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:04 pm

breeze wrote:You're all just having too much fun with Fred over here...lol :lol:


What's not to have fun with? 8-) It's a big storm, not going to hurt anyone and a very cool example of a fast developing system! What more can one want if one is truly interested in storm development? The real *no harm no foul* of a hurricane - if all goes as all looks like it goes
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#323 Postby breeze » Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:09 pm

caribepr wrote:
breeze wrote:You're all just having too much fun with Fred over here...lol :lol:


What's not to have fun with? 8-) It's a big storm, not going to hurt anyone and a very cool example of a fast developing system! What more can one want if one is truly interested in storm development? The real *no harm no foul* of a hurricane - if all goes as all looks like it goes


You're right, my friend - this will be a good one to watch and learn from!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#324 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:12 pm

:uarrow:

Especially because it may very well stall out and meander for a while. It might even loop. That is when the models do their worst, and we get a chance to second guess them. Just a great case study way out in nowhere, not hurting anybody, and we may learn a lot.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#325 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:25 pm

MGC wrote:In honor of our friends from the UK I think Sir Fred would be appropriate.

Fred looks well on his way to becoming a hurricane. Amazing how quickly Fred has organized since coming off Africa. Glad there is a weakness in the ridge and Fred will not become anyones nightmare....MGC


He'll have to wait until 2015 to get anywhere near his wife...
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#326 Postby Cryomaniac » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:02 pm

alan1961 wrote:Yes cryomaniac, was up till 5am this morning just in time for Fred being named, will admit though it wasn't intentional as i dropped off on the sofa for a few hours but there ya go :lol:


Yeah, it gets like that sometimes :lol:

Also, I think you're the closest user to me geographically lol.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#327 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:16 pm

Well,maybe not so fast about Fred being a hurricane at 11 PM EDT as dvorak T numbers are still below the threshold of 4.0.Starting to climb.

08/2345 UTC 12.6N 30.1W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#328 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:17 pm

Image

Image

Based on the satellite appearance of Fred and the latest microwave image, I would upgrade Fred to hurricane in the next advisory.

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#329 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:19 pm

Image

Image

More to confirm my forecast.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#330 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Based on the satellite appearance of Fred and the latest microwave image, I would upgrade Fred to hurricane in the next advisory.

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Microwave is pretty convincing. That's not a tropical storm...
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#331 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:22 pm

It's not fully closed or visible though. I'd at least for now keep it at 60 kt.
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Re:

#332 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's not fully closed or visible though. I'd at least for now keep it at 60 kt.


You are with the dvorak numbers.Lets see what best track has in a few minutes.
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Re: Re:

#333 Postby caribepr » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:33 pm

leanne_uk wrote:
caribepr wrote:I applaud you who are not pro mets following this one! Many say they have the interest but it often is about what concerns them personally and I will admit I am more than half way among that group. But I'm totally enjoying you all watching for the next development of what looks by all signs to be a fish but a very interesting BIG fish!

Good on ya! You may be few but you back up the talk (and of course a pro met can and should wait til morning!!! A life job like this has to be paced or insanity takes over).

That's my story, comfortable with the consensus of the models, and I'm stickin' to it (though I'll admit, deep somewhere in my rock brain I'm waiting until the north turn to let Fred stop being a potential Flint stone)


This is my first full and intense track of what is now a certain cane. I am loving it and i am totally hooked so glad to have a fish lol.

Seriously though finding this site has made me feel better about my obsession with reading the charts and tracking sat pictures. I am not strange like my friends think :p


Well, my dear, you may be a bit strange, but that is not a bad thing when your strange is about using your brain concerning science and nature instead of a few hundred other things that I'm sure could be considered more strange. Brain strange is good...as the years go by, the things your friends might consider *not strange* will not take them as far as your interest in the science of weather. Hang in being you!
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Re: Re:

#334 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's not fully closed or visible though. I'd at least for now keep it at 60 kt.


You are with the dvorak numbers.Lets see what best track has in a few minutes.


Usually when it's visible, the hurricane is stronger than 65 knots. During the past few hours it has been bursting over the LLC, which I think means intensification.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#335 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:38 pm

My friends thinks I'm strange just because I like meteorology too, but I can't help it. On topic, I agree that Fred may be right now our second hurricane of the Atlantic season.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#336 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:41 pm

Current Intensity (Dvorak) up to 3.6 (red numbers); going up but not enough on its own. Also that pressure (996.2mb) is high for a 3.6 CI#. Even a 3.5 should eqaute to a 984mb. Maybe Fred's still a bit too ragged?

Image
Last edited by ozonepete on Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#337 Postby O Town » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:42 pm

Wrapping up real nice now, outflow is kickin.


Image
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#338 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:45 pm

T3.5 = 994mb using the normal relationship. It may be a bit lower out there due to the nearby troughs. I would guess the pressure of Fred to be around 985mb right now.
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Re:

#339 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:T3.5 = 994mb using the normal relationship. It may be a bit lower out there due to the nearby troughs. I would guess the pressure of Fred to be around 985mb right now.


Oops! I was using the Pacific basin numbers, sorry. Thanks for pointing that out CrazyC83.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM FRED (07L)

#340 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:51 pm

00 UTC Best Track=HURRICANE!

AL, 07, 2009090900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 300W, 70, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

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