Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[chzzdekr81]

So who thinks that this thing can turn into a depression over the next 3 days? Is it a possibility? If it does form into a depression, could it make a direct hit on the TX/LA coast? Thanks

[jeff]

TX folks, I want the rain as much as anyone in this region...but be careful what you wish for. Progged PWS of 2.3-2.6 inches spells some serious rainfall making abilities. A couple of tropical coastal MCS's could dump a quick 5-10 inches in such an environment. We need the rain...but not all in 6 hours.

As pointed out by wx57 the now developnet of the upper feature over SC TX...given such tropical moist profiles I would not rule out the system acting tropical with nocturnal core activity that could produce some incredible rainfall amounts. Pattern looks very wet for sure! Some locations may make up their rainfall negatives by the start of next week!

[Ptarmigan]

TX folks, I want the rain as much as anyone in this region...but be careful what you wish for. Progged PWS of 2.3-2.6 inches spells some serious rainfall making abilities. A couple of tropical coastal MCS's could dump a quick 5-10 inches in such an environment. We need the rain...but not all in 6 hours.

As pointed out by wx57 the now developnet of the upper feature over SC TX...given such tropical moist profiles I would not rule out the system acting tropical with nocturnal core activity that could produce some incredible rainfall amounts. Pattern looks very wet for sure! Some locations may make up their rainfall negatives by the start of next week!

Let's face the truth. Droughts in Texas have ended in floods, like the 1950s. I actually hope all those areas hit by the drought make it up and end up with a surplus.

[jeff]

TX folks, I want the rain as much as anyone in this region...but be careful what you wish for. Progged PWS of 2.3-2.6 inches spells some serious rainfall making abilities. A couple of tropical coastal MCS's could dump a quick 5-10 inches in such an environment. We need the rain...but not all in 6 hours.

As pointed out by wx57 the now developnet of the upper feature over SC TX...given such tropical moist profiles I would not rule out the system acting tropical with nocturnal core activity that could produce some incredible rainfall amounts. Pattern looks very wet for sure! Some locations may make up their rainfall negatives by the start of next week!

Let's face the truth. Droughts in Texas have ended in floods, like the 1950s. I actually hope all those areas hit by the drought make it up and end up with a surplus.

True indeed and given the ENSO pattern...a wet fall-spring is likely for TX. Would not be surprised to see a flood of two in October from EPAC tropical systems being pulled NE along slow moving/stalling frontal boundaries...a classic TX flood setup. The pattern for the end of the week into this weekend is similar to that of July 2004 when copious rains fell over C TX or July 2007. This current setup is shifted more eastward however...and the greatest rains may fall offshore or in E TX where the drought is not as bad. At least it is raining...again.

[Ptarmigan]

True indeed and given the ENSO pattern...a wet fall-spring is likely for TX. Would not be surprised to see a flood of two in October from EPAC tropical systems being pulled NE along slow moving/stalling frontal boundaries...a classic TX flood setup. The pattern for the end of the week into this weekend is similar to that of July 2004 when copious rains fell over C TX or July 2007. This current setup is shifted more eastward however...and the greatest rains may fall offshore or in E TX where the drought is not as bad. At least it is raining...again.

I remember the October 1994 flood. It was from the moisture of Hurricane Rosa, a cool front, warm front, and a strong high pressure system over Canada. The storms could of dumped as much as 37 inches of rain in 6 hours!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hu ... ntrynum=30

[jeff]

True indeed and given the ENSO pattern...a wet fall-spring is likely for TX. Would not be surprised to see a flood of two in October from EPAC tropical systems being pulled NE along slow moving/stalling frontal boundaries...a classic TX flood setup. The pattern for the end of the week into this weekend is similar to that of July 2004 when copious rains fell over C TX or July 2007. This current setup is shifted more eastward however...and the greatest rains may fall offshore or in E TX where the drought is not as bad. At least it is raining...again.

I remember the October 1994 flood. It was from the moisture of Hurricane Rosa, a cool front, warm front, and a strong high pressure system over Canada. The storms could of dumped as much as 37 inches of rain in 6 hours!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hu ... ntrynum=30

2 floods in 1998 with EPAC taps, and late Oct 2002. The oct 1998 C TX floods still hold some of the highest crest records on the rivers out there.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Jeff. We need a reminder every so often.

[Ptarmigan]

2 floods in 1998 with EPAC taps, and late Oct 2002. The oct 1998 C TX floods still hold some of the highest crest records on the rivers out there.

The October 1998 flood. That was due to Hurricane Lester and Madeline. Big rain right there! The October 2002 was bad for Houston.

[chzzdekr81]

Yeah, we can use some rain... I'm just wondering if this could hit us a a depression, or maybe something bigger?

[vbhoutex]

Yeah, we can use some rain... I'm just wondering if this could hit us a a depression, or maybe something bigger?

Some of the local OCM's are saying it is a possibility. IMHO, and this is just a quick thought without a lot of research, I think the shear will still keep this as a weak system, maybe a depression, but not more(I HOPE, I HOPE, I HOPE).

[jeff]

If it becomes anything it will be weak and sheared with most of the impacts well to the east of any low level center. This really looks more like a coastal trough with weak surface reflections forming along it and moving NNE. Anyone of these could spin up into something, but more than a 40mph TS is not very likely. There have been several of such systems in the past: TS Fay, TS Frances, TS Grace, TS Allison, on and on. They usually produce more rain than anything.

For portions of the Gulf coast regardless is a surface reflection develops or not...it is going to be very wet and some places will see some flooding.

[rrm]

whats it looking like for the beaumont/port arthur area?

[bayoubebe]

If it becomes anything it will be weak and sheared with most of the impacts well to the east of any low level center. This really looks more like a coastal trough with weak surface reflections forming along it and moving NNE. Anyone of these could spin up into something, but more than a 40mph TS is not very likely. There have been several of such systems in the past: TS Fay, TS Frances, TS Grace, TS Allison, on and on. They usually produce more rain than anything.

For portions of the Gulf coast regardless is a surface reflection develops or not...it is going to be very wet and some places will see some flooding.

Which portions of the Gulf exactly do you think will get the rain?

[Sanibel]

Pretty sheared right now.

[attallaman]

Will any rain from the system make it as far to the east as coastal MS?

[attallaman]

Two of NOLA's TV METs were saying this morning there is a good possibility that SE LA and coastal MS could receive heavy rains from the system currently in the BOC later this week. Could the METs in NOLA be right or is the system in the BOC primarily heading for SC TX, SE TX, or SW LA?

[O Town]

Still a very hostile environment ATM. Looks like a lot of moisture getting pulled through Texas though.

[southerngale]

Two of NOLA's TV METs were saying this morning there is a good possibility that SE LA and coastal MS could receive heavy rains from the system currently in the BOC later this week. Could the METs in NOLA be right or is the system in the BOC primarily heading for SC TX, SE TX, or SW LA?

A pro met, or someone else, can correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've looked at so far this morning, it looks like my area AND your area could receive heavy rains from this system. It doesn't look like it's going to develop into any kind of real wind threat, but possibly just a lot of rain over a large area. As you can see on long range radar, there's already developing storms headed onshore over much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as storms headed for parts east of there.

If you need rain, good luck! If you don't, hope you don't get too much.
This looks like it could be a real blessing to drought stricken areas. Let's just hope there isn't any flooding.


Not the most detailed radar, but this Intellicast radar shows a good distance offshore:

Western GOM: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true

Central GOM: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USLA0338&animate=true


NWS Houston/Galveston radar loop

NW GOM Wunderground Radar Loop

[Portastorm]

Excellent links ... thanks mucho!

I say BRING IT ON ... send that rain to Austin.

[attallaman]

Two of NOLA's TV METs were saying this morning there is a good possibility that SE LA and coastal MS could receive heavy rains from the system currently in the BOC later this week. Could the METs in NOLA be right or is the system in the BOC primarily heading for SC TX, SE TX, or SW LA?

A pro met, or someone else, can correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've looked at so far this morning, it looks like my area AND your area could receive heavy rains from this system. It doesn't look like it's going to develop into any kind of real wind threat, but possibly just a lot of rain over a large area. As you can see on long range radar, there's already developing storms headed onshore over much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as storms headed for parts east of there.

If you need rain, good luck! If you don't, hope you don't get too much.
This looks like it could be a real blessing to drought stricken areas. Let's just hope there isn't any flooding.


Not the most detailed radar, but this Intellicast radar shows a good distance offshore:

Western GOM: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true

Central GOM: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USLA0338&animate=true


NWS Houston/Galveston radar loop

NW GOM Wunderground Radar Loop

Thanks for the info. TWC didn't say much about it this morning except to say that parts of TX might get some relief from their current drought. TWC focused more attention on something affecting the mid to upper EC than they did about the BOC rain maker.