ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time there was a Cat 3 or stronger storm east of 35°W? Cape Verde dodged a bullet and is lucky it didn't form right off Africa...

[cycloneye]

If it can go through an ERC before then and get larger, it might be able to overcome the shear like Bill did.

Good point there.

[HURAKAN]

When was the last time there was a Cat 3 or stronger storm east of 35°W? Cape Verde dodged a bullet and is lucky it didn't form right off Africa...

24 / 0000 14.9 35.0 960 105

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2000isaac.html

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop of today's events

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:46:08 N Lon : 32:10:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 951.2mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +1.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

115 kt is definitely possible, but it is very hard to tell with no Recon out there...

I wonder if a Flinstones reference will appear in a discussion soon? We all know what Wilma did, and this is pretty spectacular too for so far east...

[Sanibel]

Favorability will show up in the weirdest places some times when the basin is unfavorable.

[MGC]

Beautiful hurricane....glad Fred won't bother anyone hopefully. Can't recall a major hurricane this far east....MGC

[x-y-no]

I don't know if I'd go as high as 115 knots, but this sure has the look of a major hurricane.

[x-y-no]

Bye, Fred - I'd say "next" but there ain't a next ATTM (bad English but you get the idea)...

Frank

Wow ... we've got a storm that has probably intensified to a major and folks are saying "bye" ...

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 13:49:13 N Lon : 32:13:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 948.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

026
WTNT22 KNHC 091441
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.9N 33.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.2N 34.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.7N 34.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 34.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 32.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


382
WTNT32 KNHC 091442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...NO THREAT
TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.... A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT FRED IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.9N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

972
WTNT42 KNHC 091442
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

FRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A
MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR
115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED
THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER
AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
305/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
TAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH. THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS
FORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP
CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.9N 32.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.9N 33.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 34.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.7N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 34.2W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Discussion:

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.

[SapphireSea]

I had confidence on a rapid intensification to a major hurricane, and that confidence has paid off. A beautiful sight at how much energy is out there untapped due to unfavorable shear elsewhere. The moment I saw the structure on Microwave when the thread started I knew it was going to take off.

(I know there was very little science in my predictions back in the Erika thread and predicting this intensity)

[HURAKAN]

Major Hurricane Fred

[cycloneye]

Discussion:

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.

HURAKAN,do you know which were the other two majors?

[HURAKAN]

Discussion:

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.

HURAKAN,do you know which were the other two majors?

Isaac, 2000

Code: Select all

Date: 21 SEP-4 OCT 2000
Hurricane ISAAC
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  11.50  -23.00 09/21/12Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  11.90  -24.50 09/21/18Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  12.30  -25.90 09/22/00Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4  12.70  -27.20 09/22/06Z   40  1001 TROPICAL STORM
  5  13.10  -28.70 09/22/12Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  6  13.50  -30.10 09/22/18Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  7  13.70  -31.20 09/23/00Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
  8  13.90  -32.30 09/23/06Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
  9  14.30  -33.20 09/23/12Z   70   984 HURRICANE-1
 10  14.60  -34.20 09/23/18Z   85   973 HURRICANE-2
 11  14.90  -35.00 09/24/00Z  105   960 HURRICANE-3


Frances, 1980

Code: Select all

Date: 6-21 SEP 1980
Hurricane FRANCES
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  12.50  -19.00 09/06/00Z   25  1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  12.50  -20.00 09/06/06Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  12.60  -21.00 09/06/12Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  4  12.70  -21.80 09/06/18Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  5  12.80  -22.50 09/07/00Z   40  1002 TROPICAL STORM
  6  12.90  -23.20 09/07/06Z   45   998 TROPICAL STORM
  7  13.00  -24.00 09/07/12Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
  8  13.00  -24.80 09/07/18Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM
  9  13.00  -25.60 09/08/00Z   65   986 HURRICANE-1
 10  13.00  -26.80 09/08/06Z   70   978 HURRICANE-1
 11  12.90  -28.00 09/08/12Z   80   970 HURRICANE-1
 12  12.80  -29.00 09/08/18Z   90   965 HURRICANE-2
 13  12.80  -29.80 09/09/00Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3


[leanne_uk]

I am totally mesmerised by Fred .... the sat images are stunning to look at

are we now a confirmed cat 3?

[HURAKAN]

I am totally mesmerised by Fred .... the sat images are stunning to look at

are we now a confirmed cat 3?

Yes, category 3. Major hurricane