ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

A nice eye makes it easier to gauge movement. Using software in GARP, I"m measuring the following:

3hr: 320 deg. at 13 kts
6hr: 310 deg. at 11.5 kts

Appears to be accelerating to the NW now.

Interesting. The models had forecast a slowing down.

It'll slow down. This acceleration is only temporary. I'm still measuring about 320 deg. at 13 kts for a 3hr movement.

Ok, wxman57, keep us posted please. One would normally expect it to slow down as it enters the recurve, and of course thereafter it's going to be interesting to see if it stalls out or not.

[Buck]

Wow, Fred certainly didn't waste any time strengthening!

[CrazyC83]

Anybody think this can get to a Cat-4???

It might be a Cat 4 now...

[Bocadude85]

Anybody think this can get to a Cat-4???

It might be a Cat 4 now...

Fred sure is looking good... wouldnt be to surprised if this was bumped up to 135mph at 5pm

[cycloneye]

12z CMC bends to the west after going north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

Of course it has to be mentioned that this only makes you wonder what other parts of the basin are now capable of if some kind of teleconnection happens.


You would think that pinhole eye would have to be at least category 4.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Fred

[CrazyC83]

Given its small size, an ERC may not be that far away...

[cycloneye]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:19:41 N Lon : 32:35:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 948.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 5.6 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent

[cycloneye]

Impressive eye of Fred on image from this morning.

[micktooth]

Don't know if anyone posted this yet, I'm glad Fred is a fish!

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET also bends to the west.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2009

HURRICANE FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 31.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2009 13.7N 31.9W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2009 14.9N 33.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 15.7N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2009 16.3N 36.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2009 16.6N 36.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2009 16.3N 36.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2009 16.3N 36.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2009 15.6N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2009 16.0N 36.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2009 16.0N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2009 16.7N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2009 16.7N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2009 16.9N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[HURAKAN]

The eye is closing

[CrazyC83]

Looks to have peaked, at least for now. Maybe an ERC getting underway?

[cycloneye]

Eye still there at visible image.

[HURAKAN]

09/1800 UTC 14.4N 32.9W T5.0/5.5 FRED

Looks like Fred has peaked

[brunota2003]

If it can pop that eye back out, the T numbers will shoot back up again...but as far as it's true intensity? We will never know.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

It has peaked as winds are down to 100kts.

AL, 07, 2009090918, , BEST, 0, 144N, 329W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

My guess is that it peaked at 1500Z when the eye was best defined.