ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

There could be an eywall replacement cycle beginning, since there's part of an outer ring of thunderstorms around the shrinking eye. In that case it could easily restrengthen, but it is running out of time. It has maybe another 12-24 hours max before the real spindown occurs.

[CrazyC83]

There could be an eywall replacement cycle beginning, since there's part of an outer ring of thunderstorms around the shrinking eye. In that case it could easily restrengthen, but it is running out of time. It has maybe another 12-24 hours max before the real spindown occurs.

It doesn't look sheared right now, so that seems quite possible. Maybe a bit of dry air getting in too.

[HURAKAN]

Fred when it likely peaked

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF also bends back westward to around 60w at the end of run.Of course more weaker.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[pepeavilenho]

excuse me, does somebody know when is the nest part from nhc??

isn´t it at 3 o'clock p.m. in new york?

[HURAKAN]

excuse me, does somebody know when is the nest part from nhc??

isn´t it at 3 o'clock p.m. in new york?

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

[cyclonic chronic]

im believing fred has peaked also. the eye this morning was tiny, then enlargened a bit. when it did widen u could clearly see small vortices swirling within the eye. thats only seen in cat 4 or 5 storms. i think he peaked as a cat 4 around noonish and is on the way down. BUT fred is still over very warm ocean and the shear hasnt confronted it yet, so this could be an E.R.C. if it completes it before the shear and cooler ssts, could shoot back up to a 4.

this i also found interesting from the NHC discussion at 11 p.m. last nite.
FRED APPEARS TO HAVE A CLEAR PATH FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND LOW
SHEAR. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAST STRENGTHENING...
AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS ONLY 21 PERCENT AT THE
MOMENT.
we are so in the infancy of intensity forecasting. theres something about the structure or enviornment of t.c.'s that we have no clue about. nothing!! its like we are in the 1910's and trying to forecast the path of a t.c. its pretty much like guessing at what the strength will be. sure were right sometimes, but most of the time we over or underestimate intensity. one day we'll get it. till then i have no confidence in intensity forecasts. its like wishing this storm will be a 2 and that one will be a 4. its just frustrating that thousands of people spend their lives trying to learn bout t.c.'s and can only come so far. JMO

[HeeBGBz]

Anyway, I see a swirl with minor confection NE of the Caribbean.

Mmmm, tasty

[HURAKAN]

Not very common

[pepeavilenho]

excuse me, does somebody know when is the nest part from nhc??

isn´t it at 3 o'clock p.m. in new york?

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

thanks, i'm very confused because i dont know if it's the time in cape verde, in new york, utc...

thanks

[brunota2003]

excuse me, does somebody know when is the nest part from nhc??

isn´t it at 3 o'clock p.m. in new york?

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

thanks, i'm very confused because i dont know if it's the time in cape verde, in new york, utc...

thanks

AST is the same as EDT...as EST would be the same time as CDT

[CrazyC83]

Fred when it likely peaked

Clearly able to see the outer eyewall forming there.

[artist]

excuse me, does somebody know when is the nest part from nhc??

isn´t it at 3 o'clock p.m. in new york?

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

thanks, i'm very confused because i dont know if it's the time in cape verde, in new york, utc...

thanks

the same as New York time.

[HURAKAN]

677
WTNT22 KNHC 092033
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 33.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 33.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 32.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.8N 34.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.3N 34.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 33.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

223
WTNT42 KNHC 092033
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009

THE EYE OF FRED HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE
EYEWALL REMAINS STRONG WITH AN OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE
BEFITTING A MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS FRED
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER
TEMPERATURES. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ONLY GET MORE HOSTILE
AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
NEAR FRED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HWRF/GFDL NOW SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS
BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF FRED DISSIPATED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/11. FRED CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN
LATITUDE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
DECELERATING IN A DAY OR SO...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
THEREAFTER. AT ONE EXTREME...THE UKMET HAS FRED MISSING A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE
TO STALL SOUTH OF 17N AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER A NEW
RIDGE. A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS
MODELS...WHICH SHOW FRED BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWARD BY THAT
TROUGH AND APPROACHING 30N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE IDEA THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG-RANGE...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY
5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.8N 33.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.8N 34.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.0N 34.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.8N 34.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 18.3N 34.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 34.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 37.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[leanne_uk]

what is happening on this link with pictures? I just popped on for a quick follow up on Fred before the next advisory and most pictures are not there and a photobucket sign is instead

[breeze]

Wow, look at Fred! Very impressive!

[leanne_uk]

Wow, look at Fred! Very impressive!

He has been beautiful to watch emerge over the past 24 hours especially. Just hope we get a tiny bit more from this before it gits cooler water

[ozonepete]

Quite clear there's an EWR going on now. The outer ring is complete now (red colors) and the new eye is clearing out. Maybe Fred still has one more outside shot at cat 4.

(Edited it to say ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) instead of EWR. Although EWR makes me think Eye Wall Replacement, that really means Newark, New Jersey (!!) )

[leanne_uk]

Quite clear there's an EWR going on now. The outer ring is complete now (red colors) and the new eye is clearing out. Maybe Fred still has one more outside shot at cat 4.

Come on fred you can do it

[caribepr]

"AST is the same as EDT...as EST would be the same time as CDT"

Just a note...AST, Atlantic Standard Time, is only the same as EST, Eastern Standard Time, when daylight savings time is not in effect, because we do not have daylight savings time in the AST zone, so there is an hour's difference then. Central Daylight Time...too far west for me to think about, but it's not the same as EST..