ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

Well, Fred's on his way out now. Bye, Fred.

Huh? We are all trying to learn something here.

[brunota2003]

What shear? If there is shear, then why are the storms still symmetric? *confuzzled*

Just looked at the sat images...I dont see any storms around Fred being sheared, and the outflow still looks good on all sides. It is a little more restricted on the east than the west, but that still doesn't show what disrupted the inner core so much.

[SapphireSea]

Look at the way the convection on the outer NE part of the storm acts. You can see the way it expands out. It indicates shear on the system. It is hard to see because of the outflow, but it is there. Fred should continue to slowly wind down as he lifts off.

[ozonepete]

Look at the way the convection on the outer NE part of the storm acts. You can see the way it expands out. It indicates shear on the system. It is hard to see because of the outflow, but it is there. Fred should continue to slowly wind down as he lifts off.

Yeah, you are definitely right. Shear is starting to affect the outer northern quadrants, but has not affected the center yet (still has a solid circle of thunderstorms around the center.) But soon the whole system will be under 30 to eventually 50 knots of SW shear. That will be the end of Fred.

[HURAKAN]

Here comes the shear

[HURAKAN]

685
WTNT32 KNHC 100239
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED WEAKENING...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.7 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.3N 33.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


439
WTNT22 KNHC 100236
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 33.7W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 33.7W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.1N 34.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.4N 34.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 33.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


118
WTNT42 KNHC 100243
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009

THE EYE OF FRED COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND
2300 UTC...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS ERODING
THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSES
FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF ABOUT 20
KT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
HURRICANE. IN FACT...A 2308 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DECOUPLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND
4.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT IS DOWN TO 5.0.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 90 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY ABOUT
DAY 3...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
ABOVE 30 KT AND THE SSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...SO QUICKER
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS
SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY STRONG DURING THE
HIGH SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS FRED AS A
DEPRESSION AT DAY 5...IT IS ENTIRELY FEASIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/9 MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IF THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE IN FACT BECOMING DECOUPLED.
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY 48 HOURS...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.
FRED SHOULD THEN BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...WHICH ALL MAINTAIN FRED AS A DEEP SYSTEM
AND ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.3N 33.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.1N 34.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.8N 34.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 33.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 35.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ozonepete]

Here comes the shear

Yeah. Wait until it hits 50 knots of it! Ouch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Fred is on his decline now, the shear is starting to take over. Nice knowing you Fred, thanks for giving our ACE a boost.

[wxman57]

Well, Fred's on his way out now. Bye, Fred.

Huh? We are all trying to learn something here.

Fred is past peak intensity now. Conditions in its path get more and more harsh each hour. Just steady weakening leading to dissipation is left.

[Cyclenall]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

[ozonepete]

Well, Fred's on his way out now. Bye, Fred.

Huh? We are all trying to learn something here.

Fred is past peak intensity now. Conditions in its path get more and more harsh each hour. Just steady weakening leading to dissipation is left.

C'mon dude. We all know that. It's just fun for us to watch it and figure out, for example, which is contributing more to the dissipation, dry air or shear, for example. That's why we all watched Ericka to the bitter end. We might learn how decoupled systems sometimes regenerate. And it's always a learning experience to watch the NHC discusiion and see if we can second guess them. We don't do it for a living, so it doesn't bore us!

[skufful]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

You have another year left.

[cycloneye]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

What is the reasoning of that?

[cheezyWXguy]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

You have another year left.

Isnt the decade from 2000 to 2009, and then 2010 is a new decade? If so, Fred being the last major of the decade is pretty possible considering the slow season 2009 is turning out to be. Although, I think we still will see another.

[Evil Jeremy]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

What is the reasoning of that?

I think Cyclenall is suggesting that the current decade ends after this year, 2000-2009, 2010-2019, ect. And I agree with him. We could get another Major in the Caribbean, but I think this is it. Even the NHC has said that this is the furthest east there has been a Major, I think Fred was a fluke.

[Cyclenall]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

You have another year left.

2010 is the start of the next decade so no there isn't.

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

What is the reasoning of that?

The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season... .

[skufful]

Take a good look at Fred, this may be the last major hurricane of this decade for the Atlantic basin.

You have another year left.

Isnt the decade from 2000 to 2009, and then 2010 is a new decade? If so, Fred being the last major of the decade is pretty possible considering the slow season 2009 is turning out to be. Although, I think we still will see another.

1 is the first year so, 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6 7, 8, 9, and 10 is the last year of a decade. 0 is not the first year. Thus why so many fools spent endless && ringing in the wrong Jan 1 for the 21th century.

[ozonepete]

[MGC]

New decade starts Jan 1 2011. It would be nice if Fred were the last major of the decade. Yep, fast as Fred spun up it will spin down....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Jesus was not born 1 year old. Therefore, we started counting from year 0. 2010 is the start of a new decade.

"2010 (MMX) will be a common year starting on Friday in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. It will be the first year of the 2010s decade."

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010