Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[Wx_Warrior]

Lots of rain through Sunday.....stay in and watch football.

[lrak]

12Z NAM looks impressive but is likely way overdone. So far nothing more than just a bunch of tropical moisture. For those that read my points last night did anyone notice the excessive rainfall over C TX this morning SW of Austin. Small slow moving MCS in a tropical air mass produced 3-5 inches in a couple of hours. Look out for the nocturnal stuff the next few nights as this may end up getting someone more than any Gulf surface low.

Oh it was nice to see and smell jeff, "SNIFF" haven't smelt rain in years it seems, one of our local METs said that a low could form over land and become stationary. The Brownsville discussion also mentioned a slow moving low close to S.TX ...I just looked at our forecast and it shows

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 75 88 76 / 40 80 40 80 60
VICTORIA 74 88 73 88 73 / 50 80 50 80 60
LAREDO 78 93 77 94 76 / 60 70 60 70 50
ALICE 76 92 75 92 74 / 50 80 50 80 50
ROCKPORT 77 89 77 88 76 / 40 70 40 80 60
COTULLA 73 91 72 93 72 / 60 70 60 70 50
KINGSVILLE 75 90 74 90 74 / 40 80 40 80 50
NAVY CORPUS 78 89 78 88 77 / 40 70 40 80 60


WOW 80% WOW

[tailgater]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

[Rainband]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

but it's clockwise

[tailgater]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

but it's clockwise

I'm not saying it's a LLC or anything close to that but is definetly CCW, cirrus blow off is CW, could that be what you are seeing.

[vbhoutex]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

but it's clockwise

I'm not saying it's a LLC or anything close to that but is definetly CCW, cirrus blow off is CW, could that be what you are seeing.

I have to agree that there is a possibility/probability that it is indeed a CCW rotation to the SE of B'ville. It is so far out that it is hard to tell for sure. Definitely watching that area plus areas closer to home since that is where our rain is coming from right now.

[jeff]

Any low noted on the KBRO radar is likely meso scale driven from the convection. It is well inland and is not the low forecasted by the NAM to develop. That low develops from the coastal trough extending along the TX coast from KBRO toward KGLS. This pattern really does not favor TC formation...but as stated before a highly sheared horribly lopsided weak storm is at least a slight possibility only because it is September and the waters are warm...shear wind not withstanding as such ssytems have formed int he past with 20-40kts of shear. This pattern is very common along the TX coast during the cool season months and can/usually does result in baroclinic low pressure systems developing in the NW Gulf and tracking along a stalled polar boundary over the NC Gulf...spelling a wintery mess for the southern states sometimes. A little early and no well defined frontal boundary makes the chances of any surface reflection at least possibly tropical...but more and likely a big mess of deep tropical moisture and heavy rains from coastal TX eastward into LA, MS, and AL.

[lrak]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

that area has sustained itself, unlike other days where the Tstorms die off after sundown. They look healthy and feeding on something other than the sun, maybe this is the beginning of the what the models are seeing?

[LaBreeze]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

that area has sustained itself, unlike other days where the Tstorms die off after sundown. They look healthy and feeding on something other than the sun, maybe this is the beginning of the what the models are seeing?

meaning??

[Starburst]

We got 3 inches of rain here today in a very very short time about 45 minutes. Was glad to see it but if it continues to rain that heavily we may be in for some flooding here in S. Texas

[tailgater]

Lake Charkes AFD this morning.

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLCH 100955 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. KLCH
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A PWAT
OF 2.15 INCHES. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
HAS SET UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
PRECIP COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ANEW IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED BEGINNING TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ALL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THEY DO APPEAR TO BE
GETTING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. GFS
AND ECMWF FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY...TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS A NON-TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A TROPICAL STORM FORMING RAPIDLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
PATH AND TIMING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

FOR NOW WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS AREA WILL SEE RAIN REGARDLESS WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND
LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATES AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CONSIDERED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
A WATCH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN HWO FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN
WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE AREA OUT NEXT WEEK WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND
IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL BLEND THE TWO
EXTREMES AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
Nam again looks over done. should just be a major rain event with maybe some hybird low drifting inland on Saturday. IMHO.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the anticyclone is centering a little further south over land at the moment. That may mean too much shear out of the NW for any low level center to develop.

[mpic]

Local radar shows a lot of rain for me right now, but evidently my force field is up as I'm not getting a drop.

Bad thing is that we typically flood here when rain has been deficient for so long. The soil is so dry, cracked and hard that it takes awhile for it to soak in.

[wxman22]

The UKMET trys to develop the low and shoot it towards matagorda bay...

[lrak]

The area between Monterrey And Brownsville looks like it has some rotation to it.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

that area has sustained itself, unlike other days where the Tstorms die off after sundown. They look healthy and feeding on something other than the sun, maybe this is the beginning of the what the models are seeing?

meaning??

I thought I was making a statement of meaning with a ? What clarification do you need from my post and I'll try to answer?

[cycloneye]

Irak,I check a lot this webcam at the Corpus Christi bayfront and I like the change from sunny and hot to cloudy and rainy there.Lets see if the area gets the much needed rain.

http://www.cctexas.com/webcam/

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Coastal trough forms along the TX coast. Heavy rainfall expect through early Sunday.



Morning coastal observations indicate that as predict a coastal trough of low pressure has indeed formed with NE winds reported along the upper coast. Offshore buoys show generally E to ESE winds from S TX to SW LA indicating no low level circulation. SW wind at buoy (42019) 60 miles S of Freeport is likely a result of the convective outflow passage from the complex south of Matagorda Bay as there was an abrupt shift around 500am this morning from E to S and increase from 6kts to 14kts. Trough axis extends from near KBRO to S of KLCH with numerous thunderstorms over the nearshore waters and around the Matagorda Bay region. Deep rich tropical moisture with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches continues to stream into the region and will lead to widespread development given just a small amount of heating. Given the tropical air mass a pulse of morning through early afternoon activity looks most likely followed by a decreasing trends by late afternoon.



Forecast models continue to suggest a weak surface reflection to develop off the lower TX coast and move NNE early this weekend. At this time there is no indication that this is starting to happen. In fact the bulk of the rainfall appears to be focusing more westward over S TX closer to the upper air features over NE Mexico. Still not discounting that something may try and spin up in all the thunderstorms off the lower TX coast, but it is likely to be weak and all the impacts will be aimed north and east. For the local area weak low or not, it is going to rain off and on through early Sunday. Will go ahead and key in on Friday evening through early Sunday as the best chances as the coastal trough/low moves NNE across the region with best lift being maximized in this tropical air mass. One complicating factor, is that sometimes such features tend to focus the heavy rains right along and just offshore and this is possible. For now will continue with the weaker/less defined low solutions and completely discard the aggressive NAM model showing a full blown tropical storm off the upper coast.



Given tremendous moist profile in place, weak steering flow, and a warm air column supporting little evaporation, excessive rainfall is likely. KCRP sounding from 00Z yesterday had PWS of 2.37 inches. Rains will be tropical in nature with excessive short term totals upwards of 3-4 inches per hour possible. Storm totals along the coast through Sunday AM could average 4-8 inches with isolated amounts closer to 10 inches. Most locations will see at least 1-3 inches through the weekend and many will see more than that. Given dry grounds, much of this rainfall will be soaked into the ground, however the top layers will saturate with time leading to increasing run-off toward the weekend. Additionally, short term rates will likely lead to urban street flooding issues. A Flood Watch may be required at some point over the next 3 days.

[bayoubebe]

Lake Charkes AFD this morning.



.SHORT TERM...

[PRECIP COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ANEW IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED BEGINNING TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ALL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THEY DO APPEAR TO BE
GETTING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. GFS
AND ECMWF FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
ON FRIDAY...TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS A NON-TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A TROPICAL STORM FORMING RAPIDLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
PATH AND TIMING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.


LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN
WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE AREA OUT NEXT WEEK WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND
IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL BLEND THE TWO
EXTREMES AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
Nam again looks over done. should just be a major rain event with maybe some hybird low drifting inland on Saturday. IMHO.

"FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED BEGINNING TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ALL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF"
Sounds like much uncertainty, unfortunately.
How much of this is B.R. expected to get? We were offered some LSU tickets, and I don't know whether to risk going to the game or not. I'm not a sit in the rain kinda fan.

[gboudx]

How much of this is B.R. expected to get? We were offered some LSU tickets, and I don't know whether to risk going to the game or not. I'm not a sit in the rain kinda fan.

It never rains in Tiger Stadium.

You may want to keep an eye on the BR forecast. Looks like a healthy chance of rain. Which probably means a healthy dose of Charles Scott, Keiland Williams and Jordan Jefferson if the field is wet.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

[lrak]

Irak,I check a lot this webcam at the Corpus Christi bayfront and I like the change from sunny and hot to cloudy and rainy there.Lets see if the area gets the much needed rain.

http://www.cctexas.com/webcam/

I look at that one also for wind conditions when we hit the bay.

The website below has a bunch of webcams on the top left of the page. A few aren't working...grrr.

http://www.thirdcoastsurf.com/

I hope we don't get more tropical rains than we NEED