Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Light showers are falling here with some birds whistling...Nothing else to report here. Hope everybody is enjoying this day .

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND FRED IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


776
WTNT42 KNHC 082031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

HIGH-RESOLUTION METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FRED REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH PROMINENT BANDING AND
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. A 1514Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWS
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYEWALL. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
CONFLICTING SIGNALS PRESENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E PASS SHOWED
A CLOSED RING PATTERN ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A
HARBINGER OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE. IN COMBINATION WITH
WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR
INCREASING BY TOMORROW...WHICH COULD LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM SHOWING ONLY A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL STILL HAVE FRED REACHING
CATEGORY 2 STATUS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS...STRONGER
SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FRED...AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FRED WAS ONLY A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/12. A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY FEATURE STEERING FRED. HOWEVER A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO GRADUALLY BEND FROM WEST-NORTHWEST...
NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH BY DAY THREE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN THIS MORNING. AFTER 72
HR...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTING MORE OF A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER CYCLONE INTERACTING MORE WITH THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LONGER-RANGE...
BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 12.1N 29.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 12.8N 31.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 15.2N 33.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.4N 34.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 18.0N 34.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


826
WTNT42 KNHC 090247
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

THE LATEST FEW INFRARED IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-9 INDICATE THAT FRED
HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OBSERVED IN 1934 UTC
WINDSAT DATA AND 2112 UTC SSM/IS DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
TO -80 C...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING
MORE AXISYMMETRIC. TWO RECENT AMSU OVERPASSES YIELDED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 68 KT AND 70 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND FRED IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.

FRED HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10. THE NARROW RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS NOW BREAKING DOWN DUE TO TWO
SHORTWAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N 37W AND NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...FRED WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE
MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
MUCH. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE BOTH CONSISTENTLY
BEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND THEY HAVE DONE
A BETTER JOB THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NOT PULLING FRED NORTHWARD TOO
SOON. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT FRED MIGHT NOT TURN AS
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE SOME SHIFTING TO THE WEST.

FRED APPEARS TO HAVE A CLEAR PATH FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND LOW
SHEAR. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAST STRENGTHENING...
AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS ONLY 21 PERCENT AT THE
MOMENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO PEAK FRED
AT 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AT
36 HOURS ONCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. SSTS ONLY
DECREASE GRADUALLY NORTH OF FRED...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR
AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN
MODULATING THE INTENSITY BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 12.6N 30.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 13.3N 31.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 33.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.8N 34.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 18.3N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 20.0N 33.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 23.0N 34.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[tanguy97]

So unusual for this time of the year, usually we are looking to our east to see what is coming for the EC , Fred going its north path, let s see what coming in the next couple of weeks

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 31.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.1N 32.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.4N 33.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.5N 34.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.3N 34.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 34.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 34.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

[b]000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST WED SEP 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...WHICH PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE
COINCIDE WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS NOTED
IN THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER TREND WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL RISE AS HIGH AS 2.19 THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...PW VALUES WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...THE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.41 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY..WHICH WILL PRODUCE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT BEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL
SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...LEADING TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC TO
PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND HAS SPREAD CLOUDS...SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF
ITSELF OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LOCAL IFR DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN VERY HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 09/18Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL 10/03Z. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.CLIMATE...TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 10...MARKS THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. AS TODAY SEPT 9, 2009...WE HAD SO FAR 6 NAMED
STORMS:ANA...BILL...CLAUDETTE...DANNY...ERIKA...AND FRED. TWO OF
THESE HAS BECAME HURRICANES...BILL AND FRED. WITH THIS ACTIVITY SO
FAR...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A NEAR NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER...SINCE HURRICANE SEASON
OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30TH...WE NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TROPICS FOR THE NEXT TWO MONTHS.

13 YEARS AGO...WE WERE WATCHING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH LATER BECAME HURRICANE HORTENSE 100
MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. HORTENSE MADE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO ON SEPT 10,1996. HORTENSE PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER 20 INCHES IN
SOME PLACES.[/
[b]

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends Fred is now a cat 2 cane...fishing far away from the Lesser Antilles and should not be a threat for us in the island even our friends .

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTNT22 KNHC 090835
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 31.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 31.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 31.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 32.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 33.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.5N 34.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.3N 34.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.4N 34.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.6N 34.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 31.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTNT42 KNHC 090835
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 31.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.1N 32.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.4N 33.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.5N 34.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.3N 34.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 34.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 34.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 090915
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST WED SEP 9 2009

SHOWERS BEGAN EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INCREASED DURING THE NIGHT. BY 5 AM
AST SAINT THOMAS HAD RECEIVED FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND SAINT
CROIX HAD FOURTEEN HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND WINDS WERE 5 TO 10 MPH. WIND DIRECTIONS VARIED
FROM EAST SOUTHEAST IN SAINT THOMAS TO NORTHEAST IN SAINT CROIX.
LOWS AT BOTH SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX AIRPORTS WERE 77
DEGREES.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST WED SEP 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...WHICH PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE
COINCIDE WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS NOTED
IN THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER TREND WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL RISE AS HIGH AS 2.19 THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...PW VALUES WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...THE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.41 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY..WHICH WILL PRODUCE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT BEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL
SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...LEADING TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC TO
PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND HAS SPREAD CLOUDS...SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF
ITSELF OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LOCAL IFR DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN VERY HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 09/18Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL 10/03Z. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.CLIMATE...TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 10...MARKS THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. AS TODAY SEPT 9, 2009...WE HAD SO FAR 6 NAMED
STORMS:ANA...BILL...CLAUDETTE...DANNY...ERIKA...AND FRED. TWO OF
THESE HAS BECAME HURRICANES...BILL AND FRED. WITH THIS ACTIVITY SO
FAR...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A NEAR NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER...SINCE HURRICANE SEASON
OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30TH...WE NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TROPICS FOR THE NEXT TWO MONTHS.

13 YEARS AGO...WE WERE WATCHING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH LATER BECAME HURRICANE HORTENSE 100
MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. HORTENSE MADE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO ON SEPT 10,1996. HORTENSE PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER 20 INCHES IN
SOME PLACES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 70 30 50 50
STT 88 80 89 79 / 60 50 50 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

12/71

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

LOOKING AT AFRICA...

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Fred quickly strengthening
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 9, 2009 5:29 am ET
ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Fred strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday evening, and has quickly strengthened during the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of 5 a.m. Eastern Time Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds near 105 miles per hour (up from 75 miles per hour at 11 p.m. Tuesday night). Fred is located over 500 miles to the west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. It is moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour and additional strengthening is likely. Fred could become a major hurricane later today.

Fred is not expected to threaten any land masses.

For information on the non-tropical coastal low along the North Carolina coast please see the National Forecast.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 31.7W AT 09/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 435 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 28W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 26W-35W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W-68W...INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATELY
DRY AIR ON NLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 14N27W 8N37W 6N49W 7N59W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRED...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 16W-20W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ACROSS SRN
MEXICO NEAR 18N100W AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE NERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 27N. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...NW
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND IS CARRYING MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDINESS
EWD N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF N
OF 24N W OF 86W. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES
AND AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS THROUGH 25N90W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS SW OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO
18N93W ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF AND WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N79W
TO ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 82W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SW FROM A SW NORTH ATLC UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N68W ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO OVER PANAMA. NLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FOUND W OF 75W AND ARE
PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED S OF CUBA DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 20N83W AND ARE
LOCATED FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 78W-83W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ON SWLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF
75W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 11N OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS PANAMA
ALONG 8N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W AND
EXTENDS SSW OVER THE WRN TIP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING N OF 26N W OF 73W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR 25N79W ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 72W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N68W AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. E OF THIS AREA...
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W AND IS REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 58W-62W.
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N43W
AND EXTENDS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SW TO NEAR 28N52W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 26N47W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
25N40W TO 15N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 38W-42W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 40W AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE FRED.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

Fred is second major of 2009

972
WTNT42 KNHC 091442
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

FRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A
MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR
115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED
THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER
AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
305/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
TAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH. THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS
FORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP
CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.9N 32.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.9N 33.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 34.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.7N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 34.2W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED SEP 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT TO NORTH
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
BUILD SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...CNTRL
ATLC TROUGH WILL RETROGRESS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AXIS EXPECTED
OVER PR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING TO 1.7 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS FCST TO
BUILD WWD WITH TIME. GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
STRONGLY CONVERGENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
THE MID LEVELS. MODELS RESPONSE BY BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT
LOWERS/STRENGHTENS TO 750 MB AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES. THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER PREDICTIONS
OF THE EWP...GFS AND CFS MODELS WHICH INDICATED STRONG POSITIVE 200
MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES CORRESPONDING TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
(DOWNWARD PHASE OF THE MJO) ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. HAVE MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY IN POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ENJOY IT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009

THE EYE OF FRED HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE
EYEWALL REMAINS STRONG WITH AN OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE
BEFITTING A MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS FRED
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER
TEMPERATURES. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ONLY GET MORE HOSTILE
AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
NEAR FRED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HWRF/GFDL NOW SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS
BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF FRED DISSIPATED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/11. FRED CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN
LATITUDE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
DECELERATING IN A DAY OR SO...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
THEREAFTER. AT ONE EXTREME...THE UKMET HAS FRED MISSING A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE
TO STALL SOUTH OF 17N AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER A NEW
RIDGE. A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS
MODELS...WHICH SHOW FRED BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWARD BY THAT
TROUGH AND APPROACHING 30N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE IDEA THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG-RANGE...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY
5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.8N 33.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.8N 34.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.0N 34.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.8N 34.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 18.3N 34.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 34.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 37.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009

THE EYE OF FRED COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND
2300 UTC...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS ERODING
THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSES
FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF ABOUT 20
KT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
HURRICANE. IN FACT...A 2308 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DECOUPLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND
4.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT IS DOWN TO 5.0.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 90 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY ABOUT
DAY 3...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
ABOVE 30 KT AND THE SSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...SO QUICKER
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS
SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY STRONG DURING THE
HIGH SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS FRED AS A
DEPRESSION AT DAY 5...IT IS ENTIRELY FEASIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/9 MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IF THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE IN FACT BECOMING DECOUPLED.
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY 48 HOURS...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.
FRED SHOULD THEN BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...WHICH ALL MAINTAIN FRED AS A DEEP SYSTEM
AND ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.3N 33.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.1N 34.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.8N 34.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 33.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 35.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
BUILD SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN UNCHANGED LAST 24 HOURS.
TODAY LOOKS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWING A DECREASE IN PW VALUES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AT MID LEVELS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOP TO MOVE SLOWLY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL LINGER IN THAT AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH...TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION EVERY AFTERNOON IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MAINLY AT
700MB LEVEL...IS FORECAST BY THE GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL...WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HURRICANE FRED CONTINUES
MOVING NORTH...AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS. AT THIS MOMENT...AFTER
FRED...TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS CONDITIONS TURNS
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR CYCLONE GENESIS TO OUR EAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND UNTIL 10/1800Z. BETWEEN
10/18Z AND 10/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH SOME MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS DUE TO
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS. THIS MOISTURE MAY LINGER LATER THAN YESTERDAY. ESE WINDS
MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY AFT 10/16Z KEEPING SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER
FROM THE NORTH COAST OF PR.

CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1995.
IN OTHER NOTES...TODAY SEPTEMBER 10...MARKS THE PEAK OF THE
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. AS TODAY SEPT 10, 2009...WE HAD SO FAR
6 NAMED STORMS:ANA...BILL...CLAUDETTE...DANNY...ERIKA...AND FRED.
TWO OF THESE HAS BECAME HURRICANES...BILL AND FRED. WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SO FAR...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A NEAR NORMAL OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER...SINCE HURRICANE
SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30TH...WE NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE TROPICS FOR THE NEXT TWO MONTHS.

13 YEARS AGO...WE WERE WATCHING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH LATER BECAME HURRICANE HORTENSE 100
MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. HORTENSE MADE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO ON SEPT 10,1996. HORTENSE PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER 20 INCHES IN
SOME PLACES.

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends Hope you're fine Fred is cat 2 cane moving north and is not a threat for any land masses . All is calm here in Guadeloupe, the is pretty present... in our heart too! Usual scattered showers and isolated tstorms are expected today due to the weak winds doting our area. Have a good day, let's enjoy it

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100954
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST OF SAINT
CROIX OVERNIGHT...BUT NONE AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SKIES
CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MOSTLY BELOW 5 MPH.
TEMPERATURES FELL TO THE UPPER 70S.

DRIER AIR TODAY SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
DOWNWIND STREAMERS...FROM FORMING TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS THEN. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY MOISTEN A LITTLE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN DURING THAT PERIOD.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

$$