ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[skufful]

[quote="HURAKAN"]Jesus was not born 1 year old. Therefore, we started counting from year 0. 2010 is the start of a new decade.

"2010 (MMX) will be a common year starting on Friday in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. It will be the first year of the 2010s decade."

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010[/quote

Yes, but he was 10 years old after 10 years. The first year was year 1, not year 0. the tenth year, and end of the decade is year 10. Y'all are supposed to be brainiacs here!

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010[/quote <<< Hardly a source I would bet my life on!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, ill take a different approach. The century started in 2000, so why would the decade not start then as well?

[skufful]

Ok, ill take a different approach. The century started in 2000, so why would the decade not start then as well?

No, the century started January 1, 2001.

[vbhoutex]

Folks take this discussion to another thread or to pm. This thread is about Hurricane Fred. If you would like the decade discussion can be split out to another thread.

[HURAKAN]

Shear continues to impact Fred

[brunota2003]

it looks like he definitely ingested some dry air

[Macrocane]

New decade starts Jan 1 2011. It would be nice if Fred were the last major of the decade. Yep, fast as Fred spun up it will spin down....MGC

So you mean it would be nice if 2010 doesn't have a major hurricane . It wouldn't be nice for me, I love this beautiful storms. Do You know what would be nice? if the hurricanes of 2010 are like Fred and don't make landfall.

[Cyclenall]

Folks take this discussion to another thread or to pm. This thread is about Hurricane Fred. If you would like the decade discussion can be split out to another thread.

My comment caused all of this, surprisingly since it's always been accepted that in tropical history context the new decade starts on the tens. For example, we don't say Hurricane Dog (1950) occurred in the 40s. If it's split into another thread, it loses momentum usually so the mystery remains as to whether Fred could be the last major hurricane of the decade for the Atlantic.

[Meso]

Not sure if it's been posted but MODIS caught a nice image during overpass yesterday.

NOTE: Image is from yesterday, not current.

[vegastar]

Not bad... The eye is still there in visible images.

[cycloneye]

T2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10. THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 34.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 610 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 31W-36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
29W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$
HUFFMAN

[StormTracker]

Slowly being picked apart...

[Evil Jeremy]

At least we have something to look at during the peak of the season lol.

[artist]

[cycloneye]

12 utc best track.

AL, 07, 2009091012, , BEST, 0, 165N, 349W, 85, 974, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Evil Jeremy]

Just loving the 06z GFS. It takes whats left of Fred and, you guessed it, sends it to Florida:

[tolakram]

Fred is our ACE in the hole. Keep going Fred, we have some catching up to do! Darn than pesky Linda.

[cycloneye]

Not too clear but the eye is still there.

[leanne_uk]

how much further can our little fred go? Still looking pretty impressive