U.S. Drought Monitor

[southerngale]

The map obviously hasn't caught up to the recent rains. I would have thought we'd at least move up to "abnormally dry" in this area, with various spots of standing water wherever you go.

With a stack of unpacked boxes from the move (that we finally got to this summer) at the back of my lot, I'm anxious for the burn ban to be lifted. I guess we still need more rain, though. So come on, rain!!

And OUCH! again, for the areas to my west and southwest. You guys REALLY need rain!!

[vbhoutex]

It does show less of Harris County in the extreme drought area than last week so it has caught up some, but I would expect next weeks to change even more. Come on rain!! Of course some of the progs for next week are calling for possible flooding, which we can do without.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

They are going to have to come up with a new category for us south of San Antonio pretty soon as well as new shade of red.

What I also find amazing is the drought in Hawaii and Alaska (more so in Hawaii because of the severe pockets and most of the state being covered). I wonder if there is a pattern or relation between Hawaii drought and Texas droughts?

[jeff]

Like the foot of snow in Victoria, TX on Christmas Eve 2004 we in SC/SE and S TX find ourselves in a historic weather period...of exceptional drought. The magnitude and longetivy of this current drought especially along the I-35 corridor and then SSE into CRP and VCT is likely one of the worst on record and by far the worst since the early-mid 1950's.

Additionally the incredible heat this summer is rivaling records in 1980. In fact the current July average temperature at IAH is the warmest for any month ever recorded with all the clouds and rain in the past week. Even with the clouds and rain we have managed to reach the mid-upper 90's almost every day. The drought in central TX started after the floods of July 2007 and have continued ever since. Over that 2-year period some locations are down 30-40 inches of rainfall.

Hopefully a warm phase ENSO will bring all this madness to an end. As with the snow of 2004, most do not realize how historic this event is.

[cycloneye]

National Drought Summary -- July 28, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: As has been the case across much of the East this summer, cool weather remained entrenched over much of the region, with some relief coming in the form of rains during the past week across parts of Maryland and eastern North Carolina. As a result, abnormally dry (D0) conditions have retreated in Maryland near Washington, D.C., area. To the south, slight improvement is also depicted this week along the southern coast of North Carolina in the Wilmington region, where 2-4 inches of rain fell. Improvement is also noted south and east of Charlotte where beneficial rains fell as well. The opposite holds true in the western part of the state, where D0 has again pushed west and north toward the Tennessee border.

Southeast: Most of the region remains status quo this week, but a few changes are worth noting. Temperatures across much of the Southeast stayed in the normal range. The introduction of a small tongue of D0 is noted in southwestern coastal Florida where wet-season rainfall deficits continue to accrue during the wet season after a below-normal dry season as well. The D0 stretches south from the Tampa Bay area to the western reaches of Everglades National Park in Monroe County. A quiet week with minimal rainfall in Georgia and Alabama leaves them unchanged this week.

The Gulf Coast: Heavy rains (2-6 inches) fell across most of western Mississippi, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and eastern/northeastern Texas. Most of these areas saw a 1-category improvement, leading to a reduction of D0/D1 in the region. However, many of the remaining areas still in D0/D1 are sitting at just 50-75% of normal precipitation for the year.

The Plains: A mixed bag of conditions this week, resulting in both improvements and degradation. Starting in the north, North Dakota has been quite dry after all the flooding that made the news earlier this year, although the cooler weather has helped mitigate more serious impacts. The D0 has expanded out of Minnesota and spilled into North Dakota from the southeastern corner of the state to the north central counties. In addition, an area of D1 has also been introduced in a core area of east-central North Dakota where 4-7 inch deficits (25-50% of normal) have accumulated over the past 90 days.

Most of Oklahoma experienced a cool week, with temperatures generally running 4-6 degrees below normal. The only good rains in Oklahoma, though, were contained to parts of the extreme Panhandle and southeastern corner, where 2-4 inches were reported. This has led to the peeling back of D0 in the extreme western tip of the Panhandle and across portions of east-central Oklahoma. On the other hand, an introduction of D1 is noted in northeast Oklahoma and an introduction of new D2 is marked in northwest Oklahoma after yet another dry week. The cooler temperatures have helped, but not enough to offset the slowly deepening drought.

Several locations in extreme southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas reported rainfall totals of 2-4 inches or more, leading to the removal of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions there this week.

Texas also sees a combination of degradation and improvements this week. The mixed bag starts with improvements in west-central Texas around the Midland area where pockets of 2 inches or more were reported. This results in D0 pulling eastward in this region and northward through the Texas Panhandle too. The heaviest rains in the state the past week fell across eastern and particularly northeastern Texas, where 3-6 inches fell as of the cutoff this week, with more coming after the deadline and more on the way. Improvements are warranted as both D0 and D1 were pushed south and west. The same can’t be said for most of southern Texas, however, where record heat and no significant rains (most places not getting anything measurable) have coupled to increase the impacts of their exceptional, protracted drought. A slight expansion of D1-D4 is noted here, where many locales are looking at July readings challenging the all-time warmest months on record, with most days exceeding triple digits.

Upper Midwest: Rains managed to miss most of the worst drought-affected portions of Wisconsin and Minnesota, but some parts of north-central Minnesota did see enough to push the D0 and D1 slightly eastward and southward this week around Duluth, and rain also brought some relief to locations along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border. Conditions worsened in the western third of the state, leading to some slight expansion of D1 there and extending D0 into North Dakota as well.

The West: Decent monsoonal rains continue to benefit eastern and southeastern New Mexico, where 2-4 inches brought about a removal of D2 and a westward retraction of D0-D1 across the eastern third of the state.

In Montana, improvements continue on the heels of more rains this week. D1 has been removed in northeastern Montana, and some small D2 pockets have been removed in parts of central Montana as well. The D0-D1 line has also been pushed north and west a bit, with additional rains falling as July draws to a close. A return to good water levels has led to the changing of the drought depiction in Montana from “AH” to just “A” to reflect these improvements.

Farther west in the coastal reaches of the Pacific Northwest, the record-setting heat is on, with many heat advisories and an increased risk of fire under a dominating dome of high pressure, which has brought triple-digit heat for many days now. D0 now connects virtually all of the West Coast from Washington to southern California, with only a little stretch of coast at the California/Oregon border showing no form of dryness or drought thus far.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Hawaii and Puerto Rico remain unchanged this week. Over the past week, Alaska benefitted from some heavy coastal rains (3-6 inches), leading to some removal and readjustment of D0 and D1.

Looking Ahead: Over the next 5 days (July 30-August 3), temperatures across the United States are expected to be dominated once again by upper-level ridging in the West and troughing in the East. This should result in above-normal temperatures across most of the West and below-normal temperatures from the Rockies eastward to the Atlantic and even down into the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. The greatest anomalies most likely will be across the northern tier states. As for precipitation, the West looks to remain dry except for some monsoonal flow across eastern New Mexico and up into Colorado. The upper Midwest, southern Plains, Southeast, and East all stand a good chance of seeing beneficial rainfall over this period.

The 6-10 day forecast (August 4 – August 8) calls for some relief from high temperatures in the West, with normal to below-normal readings expected. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are also likely across the Upper Midwest and into the Northeast. Warmer temperatures can be expected across most of eastern and southeastern Alaska as well as across the southern United States from the Four Corners region to northern Florida and Georgia. Below-normal precipitation is called for in eastern Alaska, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest, continuing across southern Oklahoma and most of Texas into the coastal reaches of the Gulf Coast states. Above-normal rains are more likely across the coastal reaches of the Pacific Northwest, and from the Corn Belt into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[Shoshana]

Nightline is doing a piece on the drought and horses in Texas

[cycloneye]

Texas continues to be the state that has the most extreme drought conditions.

National Drought Summary -- August 18, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Most of this region was left unchanged this week. Some areas are drying out in northern Virginia where abnormally dry conditions (D0) was introduced this week. In southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina, the D0 designation was removed due to recent heavy precipitation events during the last seven days. Some areas received over five inches of rain, and are now four to eight inches above normal for the last 30 days.

Southeast: While a wet week benefited the northeast part of North Carolina, the Central Piedmont continued to be passed over with this week’s storm systems. As a result of increasing precipitation deficits in this region, streamflow on the decrease and reservoir levels slowly dropping, moderate drought was introduced in the Upper Cape River basin. For the same reasons, abnormally dry conditions were expanded in south central North Carolina, roughly south of a line from Charlotte to Raleigh.

In Florida, some short-term improvements in drought conditions are reflected in reduction of D0 in the southwestern part of the state. In north Florida, precipitation deficits are growing for the summer season and abnormally dry designation was introduced from approximately Tallahassee to I-75. No other changes were made in the southeast this week, with Tropical Depression Claudette moving through Alabama, staving off drought expansion.

The Midwest: Ohio was a mixed bag of winners and losers. An area from Sandusky, on Lake Erie, to Columbus is in D0. Further west, significant precipitation resulted in improvements to drought-free regions in northeastern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and southwestern Michigan. Weekly totals in this area ranged from two to nine inches according to local observers.

Areas of west central Wisconsin and central Minnesota were beneficiaries of more than 6 inches locally in previous D1, or moderate drought, regions. Improvements were made in both locations around Eau Claire county, WI, and west of Wright county, MN. In south central Minnesota, the lack of rain is having a bigger impact and D1 was expanded over Mankato and Blue Earth county.

Abnormally dry conditions persist in areas of northern Iowa with precipitation deficits for the last several months, and impacts on crop and soil moisture are now being reported. A new area of D0 was introduced in north central Iowa.

The Plains: In Nebraska, a swath of two to four inches of rain fell in the current Drought Monitor period. This will greatly benefit soybean crops, and help in the corn fields. Reductions of D0 and D1 were made as a result in eastern Nebraska from Kearney to Lincoln.

Improvements due to beneficial rainfall were made in some Oklahoma drought areas. All drought designations were removed from eastern Oklahoma. Several counties on the east and south side of the core drought in the state also improved one category due to weekly precipitation observations of over two inches in many areas.

Several small changes were made in Texas this week to reflect the slightly changing conditions around the exceptional drought in this state. Rain helped the panhandle region and an area southeast of San Antonio, and some improvements are depicted in these regions. Amarillo has now received record August monthly precipitation of 9.08 inches, with two weeks yet to go. Elsewhere, drought continues to expand in severity and extent. Several counties in central and north central Texas were degraded by one category. Despite decent rain in Shackelford county, surrounding areas continue to miss out, and some expansion was made here.

The West: A thorough assessment was done for Montana, resulting in removal of abnormally dry conditions throughout most of the state. Dry conditions remain around Glacier National Park and the Blackfeet reservation, and a small area southeast of there. Several days of rain and showers across the state have helped to alleviate dry conditions.

The North American monsoon has brought less than expected rain to the southwestern states this summer. Moderate drought was introduced in Arizona to show degrading drought conditions in this state.

In northwestern California, impacts on the Klamath River water supply and nearby areas led to an expansion of D0 in Del Norte county. North central Washington continues to experience degrading conditions with low precipitation and warm temperatures, and severe drought (D2) was expanded to the Canadian border.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: In Hawaii, Tropical Storm Felicia brought a number of improvements to the state’s drought on three of the islands. Kauai is left with abnormal dry conditions in the southwest, Oahu is left drought-free, and east Maui was improved by one category.

Heavy rainfall east of Anchorage this week, with areas totaling over five inches, made way for clearing of abnormal dry condtions. Elsewhere in the state was left unchanged.

Puerto Rico remains unchanged as well and drought free this week.

Looking Ahead: In the near-term, storminess associated with a cold front will continue through the central US for the next couple of days before moving over the Great Lakes. Hurricane Bill appears to be moving back out to sea, and poses no threat to making landfall. For the next five days, precipitation will favor the eastern states, with climatologically dry conditions continuing in the West. The monsoon appears to remain relatively quiet for this time of year in the Southwest.

In the six to ten day forecast, the western continental US is projected to have above normal temperatures, and the east with below normal temperatures. During this period, precipitation is expected to be below normal in the northern states from Washington to Wisconsin, and above normal rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard. These are consistent with a ridge pattern in the west and a trough in the east. According to the Climate Prediction Center, model agreement is reasonable for this period. Alaska is projected to have below normal temperatures across the entire state, and below normal precipitation everywhere except the southeast where it may be wetter than normal.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Re the above post and since I just uploaded this in another thread I thought I should put it here too....Texans better learn a rain dance soon!!

[vbhoutex]

The sweat from our frenzied dances is about all the precipitation we can seem to muster.

[Shoshana]

We don't have enough sweat to drip - it's really dry most days. Wish I knew a rain dance.

[somethingfunny]

Hopefully that system in the Gulf can translate itself into substatial rain across all of S/C/SE Texas and we'll get some improvement by next week. It looks like the area right along the Rio Grande has already seen some improvement:



I should mention that I feel very guilty about all the rain that my part of Texas has been getting.

[JonathanBelles]

Texas is seeding clouds according to a BayNews9 story (shown on the air). They are striving to make the clouds rain longer instead of rain more.

[vbhoutex]

Texas is seeding clouds according to a BayNews9 story (shown on the air). They are striving to make the clouds rain longer instead of rain more.

I'd love to know what their source is on that. Any links on their site?

[JonathanBelles]

I'll look, but they also had video of the actual seeding. Hang on.

[JonathanBelles]

There's no story on the site, although I sent them a tweet asking for one. I did a tweet and google search and turned up only this short story:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.a ... yid=121799

The Bay News 9 story had a video show that they were actually doing it.

[cycloneye]

Good news for the Southern Texas area in terms of less brown area than in past weeks.

National Drought Summary -- September 22, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

During September 15-21, an upper-air low slowly meandered across the Delta and Southeast, drawing moist tropical Gulf and Atlantic air northward and westward. As a result, widespread, numerous, slow-moving clusters of showers and thunderstorms inundated many portions of the Delta and Southeast, including upsloping airflow that greatly enhanced rainfall over parts of the southern Appalachians. Many locations from eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri eastward into the western Carolinas and Georgia recorded well over 4 inches of rain, with locally up to 18.43 inches measured from a CoCoRaHS observer in Lilburn (north-central Georgia) during September 18-22. Georgia’s State Climatologist Dr. David Stooksbury reported that many locations in north Georgia experienced a 100-year rain event Sunday into Monday. This means that a 24-hour rain exceeding 8 inches has only a 1 in 100 chance (1 percent) in any year of occurring in central Georgia. Needless to say, severe, widespread flooding occurred across much of northern Georgia, with localized flooding elsewhere across the South. Amazingly, it was just about 2 years ago that much of this area was in the grips of exceptional (D4) drought. Elsewhere, light to moderate rain also fell on the southern Plains (including Texas again), Four Corner region, Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, western Corn Belt, and upper Great Lakes region.

In contrast, high pressure over the Southwest brought seasonably dry but abnormal warmth to California and the Great Basin, although a resurgent monsoon flow triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Arizona, most of New Mexico and Colorado, eastern Utah, and southern Wyoming. Mostly dry weather also affected most of the northern and central High Plains, upper Midwest, and Northeast. Temperatures averaged much above-normal (more than 10 degrees F) from Montana to Minnesota, while the Northeast and south-central Plains experienced unseasonably cool weather.

Atlantic Coast States and Eastern Ohio Valley: A very dry September continued for much of the eastern Corn Belt, central sections of the Appalachians, Piedmont, and North Carolina, and eastern South Carolina. Many locations in this area have measured less than 0.5 inches of rain this month (and during the past 30 days), and month-to-date deficits have accumulated between 2 and 4 inches. Likewise, most USGS 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day averaged stream flows have also dropped to below (10-24 percentile) or much-below (less than 10 percentile) normal values in the same area. Negative departures were also common at 60- and 90-days. Accordingly, D0(A) was expanded to incorporate these growing short-term deficits, while D1(A) was added to last week’s D0 areas where the lowest 30-day percent of normal precipitation occurred (central Appalachians and east-central Corn Belt). In addition, a dry September has also affected the eastern Great Lakes region and interior New England, but thanks to a very wet summer, surpluses are still common at 60-days and longer periods, so no designation was placed there yet.

Southern Plains and Gulf Coast Region: After last week’s deluge and drought improvement across much of Texas, it appeared as though a return to dry weather and status-quo would be the story for this week. A swath of showers and thunderstorms, however, swept through the eastern half of the state on day 7 (24-hour period ending 7am CDT Tuesday, Sep. 22), dropping more beneficial rains (1.5 to 2.5 inches) from Del Rio northeastward to Texarkana. Light to moderate rains also fell earlier in the period on extreme southern Texas (up to 2.5 inches). Unfortunately, the rains missed north-central and south-central Texas. But with the Texas A&M SPI blends updated through 7am CDT September 22, a reassessment was made for Texas, including: A 1-category trimming of the northern and eastern drought borders (D0-D2), some improvement in the lower Rio Grande Valley, erasing some of the northern D0 portion in central Louisiana and southern Mississippi (1 to 3 inches of rain), and a redefining of the core D4 area, shifting it farther west into Duval, Live Oak, and Bee counties, and southward out of Brazoria and Matagorda counties. The small D0-D1 area in north-central Texas was slightly expanded with dry weather, while little or no rain failed to alleviate the small D0 in northern Oklahoma.

Upper Midwest: Similar to the eastern Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast States, September continued to be quite dry across the upper Midwest (less than 0.5 inches), especially in northern Wisconsin, UP of Michigan, northwestern lower Michigan, north-central and south-central Minnesota, and northern Iowa. The drought has been exacerbated by unseasonable warmth (weekly temperatures averaging 6 to 14 degrees F above normal, highs in the 80s) and long-term subnormal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., northern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota) receiving less than 70 percent of normal precipitation during the past year (deficits of 8 to 12 inches), and about 80 percent the past 2 years (deficits of 10 to 16 inches). Several USGS 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day averaged stream flows were at or near record low (lower 2 percentile) levels in east-central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and southern UP of Michigan. As a result, D2 was increased and D3 introduced to this 3-state region, while D0 and D1 was expanded into the rest of Minnesota, northern Iowa, UP of Michigan, and northwest lower Michigan. The news, however, was not all bad as the dry and warm weather accelerated late-season crop progress that was far behind schedule due to the cool and occasionally wet spring and summer months. This eased fears of an early frost that could have reduced the quality and quantity of crop yields. For example, Minnesota’s corn dented went from 56 percent of the crop to 76 percent in a week, while soybeans dropping leaves went from 16 percent to 49 percent (according to USDA/NASS). Additionally, spring grain harvesting rapidly progressed (MN: 68 percent to 86 percent spring wheat harvested).

Northern and Central Plains: Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms developed over parts of the northern and central Great Plains while the High Plains mostly saw little or no rain. Fortunately, light to moderate rains (0.4 to 1.5 inches) fell on portions of south-central and eastern North Dakota, providing enough moisture to eliminate the D1(A) in east-central North Dakota, and trimming away the abnormal dryness in Emmons county (south-central ND). Elsewhere, the rains (0.1 to 0.4 inches) were not enough to remove D0 in the remainder of the Dakotas and southeastern Nebraska. And similar to the upper Midwest, the mostly dry and warm weather spurred late-season crop development (which was way behind schedule), harvesting of spring grains, and the planting of winter wheat.

The West: Seasonal dryness and slightly above-normal readings prevailed in California and the Great Basin as the autumn wildfire season fast approached. Since September is normally dry, conditions were quite typical for this time of the year, thus status-quo was maintained. As of Sep. 22, the NIFC reported that there were 7 large active wildfires, all in the Far West, including the long-burning Station fire in California’s Angeles National Forest. At 94 percent containment, Station has blackened nearly 161,000 acres. Farther to the north, a weak Pacific system dropped light to moderate rains (0.1 to 0.5 inches, locally to 1.6 inches near Quillayute, WA) on the Pacific Northwest, halting any further deterioration but not great enough to make any improvements. In contrast, a second week of a resurgent monsoon brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Four-Corner states and southern Wyoming. One to two inches of rain fell on western two-thirds of New Mexico and Colorado, east-central Arizona, northeastern Utah, and south-central Wyoming. Accordingly, short-term D1 was erased from central New Mexico, as was D0(A) in western parts of the state. East-central Arizona was improved by 1-category, while northwestern Colorado, north of the Colorado River, received enough rain to remove D0 there. In southwest Colorado, however, flows on the Animas and Los Pinos Rivers above the Vallecito Reservoir remain below normal, and the Lemon Reservoir (near Durango) is currently 25 percent full, or 48 percent of the normal storage, placing this area into D1.

Hawaii and Alaska: Light to moderate daily showers (generally 0.1 to 0.5 inches; 1 to 1.5 inches at a few sites) from Thursday through Sunday were common on the windward sides of Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, but little or no rain fell on most leeward portions. With no drought designation on the windward sides, and the summer and early fall months typically dry on the leeward portions, status-quo was kept.

In Alaska, stormy weather brought plentiful precipitation (2 to 10 inches) along the southern and southeastern coast, but also into east-central sections. One-half to 2 inches of rain fell from Nenana eastward to Chicken as 7-day averaged USGS stream flows rose into the upper tenth percentile in response to the heavy rains; therefore the northern extent of the D0 was trimmed back.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (September 24-28), widespread rains from a slow-moving storm system are forecast for the eastern half of the Nation, with the largest totals (more than 1.5 inches) expected in Iowa, extreme southern Texas, the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians. In drought areas, moderate rains (an inch) may fall on parts of the upper Midwest, lower Delta, mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Dry and warm weather is forecast for the West, although temperatures should start to moderate by the weekend.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (September 29-October 3) calls for above-normal precipitation in the Northwest, Plains, and Delta. Drier weather should return to Arizona and New Mexico, while the eastern third of the Nation should record subnormal precipitation. Unseasonable warmth is forecast for the southern half of the Plains and western Corn Belt, while subnormal temperatures occur in the Northeast and West. Wet weather is probable for the southeastern quarter of Alaska.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html



http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TX,S

[somethingfunny]

Bump.

[somethingfunny]

National Drought Summary -- October 20, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The period from October 13-20 featured generally stormy conditions on the West Coast, Southeast and mid-Atlantic with dry conditions from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest. Early in the week, a storm system over the southeast U.S. produced significant rainfall across western South Carolina, the Florida panhandle, and westward to northeastern Texas. By Friday, that storm system had moved off into the Atlantic, and a secondary low-pressure system moved along the remnant frontal boundary. This secondary system brought significant precipitation to the mid-Atlantic region. In the wake of these low-pressure systems, high pressure ushered in dryer, cooler weather for much of the eastern half of the country for the last 3 days. The storm system that moved across the western portions of the contiguous 48 brought the first significant rains of the wet season to many portions of California and Nevada on October 14th and 15th. Additional rains associated with another low-pressure system fell from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains from October 16-20.

Mid-Atlantic and Southeast: Significant rains across the Southeast early in the week precluded any drought indications for most of the region. The exceptions were the Carolinas and Florida. In South Carolina, the heavier rains (1-2 inches) stayed to the west of the previously depicted drought areas, with the drought areas receiving less than 1 inch of rain for the week. United States Geological Survey (USGS) measured stream flows in northern South Carolina remained low (current day out to 28-days in the lowest 10 percent), so the area remained in moderate to severe drought status. In North Carolina, a continued decline in stream flows and increased rainfall deficits stretching back at least 6 months prompted the expansion of moderate drought conditions. One-, three-, and six-month rainfall totals were all 50-70 percent of normal, with 14-day precipitations totals 25-50 percent of normal.

Across Florida, rainfall deficits continued to mount for the eastern portions of the state. Rainfall totals were generally less than 0.5 inch in this region. Rainfall deficits at many timescales continued (7-, 14-, and 30-days were 1-2, 2-3, 4-8 inches below normal, respectively). Specifically, from July to mid-October, reports from Palm Beach International Airport, Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, and Miami International Airport reported deficits of 5.08, 11.21 inches, and 4.13 inches, respectively. Additionally, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports from Florida indicated scattered incidents of drought impacts to livestock. However, local water supply managers stated that “... most ground and surface water is near where it should be for mid-October.” Balancing these inputs, the result was an extension of the abnormally dry conditions southward.

Southern Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, and western Maryland received beneficial rains (1-2 inches), easing drought conditions in this region. No impacts were reported so the agricultural classification of drought impacts was removed. Additionally, cool temperatures (10-12 degrees F below normal) minimized evaporation so the rains were able to make a substantial impact.

Northern and Central Great Plains and Upper Great Lakes: Weekly precipitation deficits of 0.5-1.0 inch prompted an expansion of the abnormally dry conditions across the upper peninsula of Michigan. Near normal precipitation across most of Minnesota and central Wisconsin led to retention of the current drought depiction. In response to light but persistent rainfall, cooler temperatures and the end of the growing season, the area of abnormally dry conditions across the Dakotas was removed. The area of abnormally dry conditions across Nebraska was adjusted to reflect recent soil moisture measurements (10 percent to 30 percent of normal) across much of eastern Nebraska and continued below normal rains (50-70 percent of normal) for the most recent 1-, 2-, and 3-month measurement periods.

Southern Great Plains: Small changes were made in Texas to reflect some recent lack of rains (0.5-2 inches below normal for the week) across northern and western Texas. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) values indicated pockets of abnormal dryness from near Midland, to north-central Texas and the Panhandle. Additionally, no rainfall and temperatures averaging 6-8 degrees F above normal for the week across eastern New Mexico prompted the expansion of the abnormally dry conditions across this region.

The West: Significant changes were in order across the West as the first strong low-pressure system of the wet season barreled onshore on October 14. Multiple storm systems then continued to come ashore across the Pacific Northwest. The Olympic Peninsula received significant rains (generally 4-8 inches with a maximum near 13 inches) through the course of the week, triggering a 1-category improvement. To the east of the I-5 corridor in northern Washington, additional rains (2-5 inches) led to some trimming of the moderate and severe drought region.

In California and Oregon, the rainfall on the western mountain slopes was noteworthy, with multiple locations in California receiving greater than 4 times the normal rainfall for the weekly period. The most significant improvements were made across southwest Oregon and central California. Rainfall totals in southwest Oregon ranged from 1.0-5.6 inches.

Across central California, 24-hour rainfall totals exceed 15 inches in some coastal locations (Mining Ridge – 19.57 inches), with most locations receiving 2-8 inches of precipitation. A general 1-category improvement was made along the entire length of the San Joaquin Valley.

In Nevada, 1-3 inch precipitation totals resulted in some minor adjustments of the severe drought depiction near Washoe County. Reports from the field indicated that almost no flooding was associated with these rains and the puddles generally disappeared within 24 hours, indicating that these recent rains did much to recharge soil moisture. Further north, rains (0.5-2.0 inches) across Idaho and Montana prompted the removal of large areas of abnormal dryness and a 1-category improvement across northwest Montana. No changes were made to Arizona as mostly near-normal rainfall was experienced across the state. That being said, near normal ranges from 0.0 to 0.5 inch.

Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska: Light to moderate daily showers (generally 0.1 to 0.5 inches; 1 to 1.5 inches at a few sites) from Thursday through Sunday were common on the windward sides of Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, but little or no rain fell on most leeward portions. With no drought designation on the windward sides, and the summer and early fall months typically dry on the leeward portions, status-quo was kept.

In Alaska, stormy weather brought moderate precipitation (2 to 3 inches) to southern Alaska and the Alaskan Panhandle, but failed to materialize inland. Inland stream flows are still near or above normal in many places, so the depiction here remained unchanged.

Rainfall in Puerto Rico was plentiful, with most stations reporting some measureable precipitation. Many stations reported in excess of 2 inches with a maximum of nearly 6 inches in the higher terrain. No dryness was depicted on the current map.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (October 22-26), a stormy pattern is expected east of the Rockies, with multiple low-pressure systems tracking from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches are forecast from Kansas to Michigan, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to western North Carolina, and across New England. The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rick could bring significant rainfall to the Southeast. Additional storm systems are forecast to impact the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts from 1.0-2.5 inches are possible. Little relief is expected for the drought areas in Arizona and the dry area in Florida.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (October 27-31) calls for above-normal precipitation in the Northwest and from the Mississippi River to the East Coast. Drier weather should return to much of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for most of the contiguous U.S. west of the continental divide with below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies. A wet pattern is forecast across southeast Alaska.

Author: Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC





Aside from Corpus Christi/Kingsville (sorry, lrak) things have gotten much much better for Texas. In fact our lakes are overflowing here in North Texas.



California had been in solid D2 a few months ago so conditions have improved there as well, and El Nino should bring continued improvement this winter.



How things have changed for the Southeast.



This hasn't gotten alot of attention but there's been a bulls-eye of D3 here all year long. It has gotten a bit smaller recently but I'm sure it's caused alot of hardships for our Cheesehead friends.



El Nino typically keeps Hawaii drier than average. Since Hurricane Neki missed wide left, things don't look to improve anytime soon.



Over all this map could look significantly worse than it does right now. The severe droughts of the past few years appear to be moderating and are predicted to continue improvement, especially in Texas and California. The big question now is, where will the next major drought develop? Unfortunately it's the nature of the beast when one area starts getting more rainfall, it's done at the expense of somebody else. Stay tuned....

[cycloneye]

I think is time to bump this drought monitor thread as the dry areas are expanding in the SE states.



http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: After some improvement last week, a relatively quiet week ensued, which leads to no changes in the map in the Northeast. A mixed bag of weather brings mixed changes to the Mid-Atlantic, where southern and southwestern Virginia saw 2-3 inches of rain or more in places. Above-normal temperatures (2-5 degrees) were widespread as well. This led to the removal of some of the D0 along the central stretch of the Virginia-North Carolina border. The D0 depiction for the rest of VA remains unchanged this week.

More changes are reflected this week across the Carolinas, mostly in the way of improvements after a narrow band of 3-5 inches of rain fell across western North Carolina and some 1-2 inch plus rains fell in central South Carolina. These areas saw a 1-category improvement from D2/D1 down to D1/D0. In eastern North Carolina, the rains haven’t materialized much over the past two months or so, leading to a slight push of D0 to the east. Another area that missed out on the heavy rains to the east in northwestern North Carolina (Blue Ridge vicinity) goes from D0 to D1 this week as well.

The Southeast and Gulf Coast: The biggest benefactors last week were found in parts of central and northern Alabama along with northern Georgia, where rainfall totals of 1-4 inches were reported in many locales. The areas under the heavier rains (2-3 inches or more) were reduced one category, leading to some trimming of D0-D2 in those regions. However, D2-D3 remains well in place across southern Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle. Other parts of the Southeast weren’t as fortunate as the dryness and above-normal temperatures of the past 60-90 days (due to a lack of tropical moisture this hurricane season) are beginning to really dry things out, particularly range and pasture lands. Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama are all reporting (via USDA) around 70% of Pasture and Range Land as in “Poor or “Very Poor” condition as of October 31. D1 and D2 continue to work their way west and north across Arkansas as streamflow levels continue to sag. In Louisiana, heavy rains across southwestern and south-central parishes led to a 1-category improvement in those areas seeing 3-5 inches. Heavy rains (2-4 inches) also fell across northwestern Louisiana, leading to some trimming of the D1-D3 found there. These rains were badly needed, but the core of this drought still remains across much of central and western Louisiana and more rains would be welcomed.

A bit to the east and south, D2 now stretches across the southern tier counties of Georgia, and D0 now covers all of central Georgia in a change from last week. Florida also sees more in the way of worsening drought conditions in both the south and north. Southern Florida sees a slight expansion of D0 south and east across the peninsula. In the northern half of the state, D0-D2 now covers the entire Big Bend region in a push to the west as the lack of rain over the past 30-90 days is coupled with low streamflow values as well. Flows in and around the Lower Suwannee are at 10-year lows, and in the Upper Suwannee and Santa Fe, flows are approaching record lows from 2007, according to the Suwannee River Water Management District. The Panhandle remains in D2-D3 this week.

The Midwest and Great Lakes: Improvement is noted this week across the Arrowhead region of Minnesota in the removal of D2 and a reduction of D1 and D0 on the southern edge. Recent rains have helped ease the hydrological situation in that region. After some locally beneficial rains last week held deterioration at bay across much of Indiana, a return this week to little in the way of rains, coupled with above-normal temperatures, led to an expansion northward of D1 and D2. All but extreme northwestern Indiana is now in at least D1, with the southern half of the state in D2 and/or D3 along the Ohio River valley region. The D0-D1 has also encroached upon southern Michigan after a short reprieve. To the west of Indiana, eastern Illinois also sees more nudging of D1 to the west across the southern half of the state. Kentucky also continues to see warm temperatures and spotty rains with the general conditions still trending toward intensification. In fact, the latest press release (October 28) out of the Kentucky Governor’s Energy and Environment Cabinet (Drought Task Force input) shows 50 counties in a Level 2 designation (Level 3 being the worst) along with another 42 counties at Level 1. The D0-D2 in Kentucky has pushed more south and east this week and the same holds true for western and central Tennessee, where D1-D2 now blankets this region. Things continue to be warm and dry across the Bootheel region of Missouri as well and D2-D3 continues to expand and entrench itself this fall. Streamflow (lowest 2-5 percentiles) and soil moisture readings are quite low in the drought regions outlined above as we head into the critical soil recharge season. One general positive out of the recent dryness, though, has been found in the form of excellent harvesting conditions.

The Plains: Most of the central Plains remain unchanged this week. A small amount of D0 has moved over the border from Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

Texas & Oklahoma: Dry weather dominated the landscape last week for all but parts of southeastern Texas (3-4 inches in and around the Houston metro and points north and east of the vicinity). In Oklahoma, D0 expands mostly to the north and east into southeastern Kansas and extreme southwestern Missouri. As we move south into Texas, it was more of a mixed bag with heavy rains leading to 1- to 2-category improvements (D1 to no dryness/drought locally) in and around the Houston vicinity where the heaviest rains (3-5 inches or more) fell. In general, conditions eased somewhat as you moved north and east from there toward Louisiana, with a trimming on the south edge of the D1. As for the rest of Texas, expansion is on the plate this week with a push of D0 north toward Dallas and a push south along the Rio Grande toward Brownsville.

The West: After a beneficial early storm system brought improvements to last week’s map, this week holds steady after a much quieter week over our defined dry/drought regions across the West.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: In Hawaii, good trade wind rains on the windward sides of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu lead to improvements on this week’s map in the form of general 1-category improvements. The Big Island saw a good chunk of D3/D4 removed and the windward side is free and clear of drought/dryness at this time. The same goes for windward Maui, Molokai and Oahu where a retreat of D0-D3 was seen, leaving the windward sides clear of D0. Streamflows and reservoirs have been responding favorably in the areas showing improvement. The lee sides remain in D0-D3, thus mitigation measures and mandatory water restrictions remain in place as a precaution.

Alaska and Puerto Rico remain unchanged from last week.

Looking Ahead: The forecast for the next five days (through November 8) is showing a large bubble of above-normal (3-12 degrees) temperatures falling across the entire West, with cooler temperatures (3-9 degrees) expected east of the Mississippi River valley. Most of the West (except for coastal plains and interior Pacific NW) and central U.S. are expected to be high and dry over this period. East of the Mississippi and up the Atlantic Seaboard, moderate rains (spotty in nature) are forecasted.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (November 9-15) calls for a flip-flop of temperatures from the 5-day forecast above, with below-normal readings likely in the West and above-normal temperatures highly likely in the East, particularly the Midwest and Northeast. As for precipitation, below-normal rains are expected across the coastal Pacific NW, the Southwest, the entire Gulf Coast region from Texas to Florida and up the Atlantic coast into southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas.

Alaska looks to be both cooler and drier over the 6-10 day period.

[cycloneye]

National Drought Summary -- November 9, 2010

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Cooler than normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation fell across the region this past week, leading to some changes on the current map. The D0 has been removed in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, but the rains stayed away from New Jersey for the most part, leaving D0 intact there. The Allegheny and Shenandoah Mountains along the West Virginia and Virginia border saw decent rains this past week, leading to some minor reduction of D0-D1 and a removal of the D2 that was in place across the West Virginia Panhandle as short- and long-term deficits begin to ease somewhat. Much cooler weather (5-10 degrees below-normal) and little in the way of rains leaves the Carolinas unchanged this week.

The Southeast and Gulf Coast: Southern Alabama and Georgia remained on the short end of any significant rainfall over the past week, leading to a slight push northward of D1-D2 in southeast Georgia in and around Savannah. The rest of Georgia remains unchanged this week. To the west in Alabama, the southern portion of the state continues to miss out on the rains they are seeing to the north, leading to further deterioration of the D2-D3 in southeastern Alabama. D1 continues to be eroded away in north and east-central Alabama after a more favorable weather pattern the past couple of weeks. Eastern and northern Mississippi reported their best rainfall totals during the past seven days, with beneficial totals ranging from 1 to 4 inches. This has helped reduce the D3, D2 and D1 conditions found in most eastern and northern counties of the state. On the heels of last week’s heavy rains across southern Louisiana, more rains this week bring more reductions of D0-D3 in the southern parishes of the state. On November 3, the state lifted a statewide burn ban that had been in place over the past month.

The Midwest and Great Lakes: A quieter pattern ensued this past week, with generally cooler temperatures and little rainfall leading to status quo across Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee and Illinois. One region that continues to fall behind is in the Bootheel region of Missouri and northeastern Arkansas. An expansion of D1-D3 is noted here as the dryness has been entrenched for at least 6 months now, leading to severely drawn down or empty stock ponds and very little in the way of forage on pastures in this region.

The Plains: The high and dry pattern across the central Plains led to some expansion of D0 across central Nebraska, spreading into more of central Kansas as well. In addition, the severe dryness felt across west-central Kansas over the past 90 days has led to expansion of D1 out of east-central Colorado and into Kansas. The rest of the region remains unchanged this week.

Texas & Oklahoma: Aside from northeast Texas, it was a dry week across most of Oklahoma and the rest of Texas. Areas that received anywhere from 1.5 to 3 inches of rain in northeast Texas were reduced from D0 to all clear this week. Some other areas of Texas saw some expansion this past week as the dryness now stretches back past 90 days to 6 months or so. In southeast Texas, the D1 has begun to push both west and south into the Austin region. Pasture and range conditions along with top soil moisture are also affected in this region. In western Texas, an expansion of D0-D2 is seen as a push from the Big Bend area to the east, north and south into more of central Texas.

The West: It was another relatively warm and dry week for all but the coastal ranges along the Pacific Ocean from California up to Washington State. The only relevant change on the map this week is found in Colorado, where seasonal dryness on the order of 90 days or so is quite impressive, leading to an expansion of D0 and D1 across more of the eastern and southern counties.
Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: After some good trade rains and improvements over the past couple of weeks, Hawaii remains unchanged this week.

Alaska saw some decent rains (3-5 inches) along the eastern half of the Alexander Archipelago chain, leading to some reduction of D0 there (although the D0 remains along the western flank of the Archipelago). Continued dryness over the past three to four months leads to some expansion of D0 along the entire southern Gulf of Alaska coastal region (45-70 % of normal over the past 90 days) as well as some expansion of D0 in central Alaska to the south and west over to the Norton Sound as totals fall behind by 1-2 + inches (55-70% of normal) over the past 90 days.

Puerto Rico remains free and clear of D0-D4 at this time, unchanged from last week.

Looking Ahead: The forecast for the next five days (through November 15) is showing the potential for beneficial precipitation across central and eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and eastern Texas. The rest of the country looks to remain relatively dry over that period. As far as temperatures go, readings are expected to well below normal across the western half of the country, including the western and high Plains. For those of you east of the Mississippi River, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than last week, with the forecast calling for above-normal readings (3-6 degrees).

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (November 16-20) calls for at least better odds of below-normal temperatures for virtually the entire country as a large trough may set up in the country’s mid-section, ushering in cooler Canadian air as far as the Gulf Coast states. The best bet for these cooler readings is in the central and northern Plains along with the front range of the Rockies and the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Most of Alaska looks to be below normal as well. Precipitation is more of a mixed bag, with below-normal amounts predicted for eastern Alaska, the Pacific Coast, parts of the Southwest and the southern high Plains centered on west Texas. Above-normal precipitation is more likely in the northern Plains and across most of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.