ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 101435
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT
ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96
HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL
MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS. BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING
STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Not sure if that's Fred and not sure if that synoptic sends it to Florida or recurves it instead.

[Bocadude85]

Hmm thats a interesting track for Fred to take.. do not really know what to make of the models to be honest.

[vegastar]

Down to 85kts, still cat 2.

From NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[jconsor]

The North Carolina State WRF (which did much better than the HWRF on Erika) indicates Fred will track well south of other guidance, only getting as far north as 19N latitude before turning due west and even WSW by the very end of the run (Sun night).

If Fred took such a track, he would still be under significant shear, but it would probably be more like 20-25 kt instead of 40kt+ that it would face further north. Such shear levels would make it more likely for Fred to survive as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm instead of dying altogether.

The innermost domain, which has the most realistic representation of Fred's current intensity, weakens Fred very rapidly from a cat 2 hurricane Fri morning to a weak tropical storm by Sat morning, but then levels off the weakening by Sat afternoon and Sun and even shows slight restrengthening by Sun evening. The inner domain shows a "center jump" to the west and even slight restrengthening by late Sun, which does not seem reasonable to me. The model clearly shows Fred still suffering from significant shear by Sun evening since nearly all the convection is on the north side of the storm.

Check it out at http://tempest.meas.ncsu.edu/briana/rea ... e_wrf.html

[HURAKAN]

Holding pretty well. Lets see when the shear really starts kicking its rear

[somethingfunny]

If that were to verify, and Fred were to make it all the way across the Atlantic...it would hands down win the award for strangest track ever.

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: Not sure if that's Fred and not sure if that synoptic sends it to Florida or recurves it instead.

Looking through the run it is indeed Fred, and it actually recurves while touching the FL coast.

[Blown Away]

Is Fred really a good name for a hurricane? I'm stuck on that.

[artist]

anyone glanced at the models thread lately?

[AdamFirst]

Is Fred really a good name for a hurricane? I'm stuck on that.

Fred is not really a good name at all. No offense to any Freds.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC takes Fred as a Tropical Storm westward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[somethingfunny]

Is Fred really a good name for a hurricane? I'm stuck on that.

Sure. It's already been used before!



Since Fred's looking unlikely to be retired, it'll be pretty awful to see Fred affect the Mobile area in a major way in 2015, 2021, etc....even 2027, it's only 48 years after Frederic and I'm sure plenty of long-time residents of the area would still remember it.

[cycloneye]

Dang! 12z GFDL turns west

WHXX04 KWBC 101714
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE FRED 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 34.9 320./ 9.9
6 17.1 35.1 342./ 6.3
12 17.6 35.2 339./ 5.0
18 17.9 35.4 335./ 3.5
24 18.1 35.5 338./ 2.4
30 18.4 35.6 332./ 3.1
36 18.0 36.1 231./ 5.6
42 17.6 36.3 212./ 4.6
48 17.4 36.2 157./ 2.5
54 17.4 36.2 117./ .7
60 17.8 36.1 9./ 4.5
66 18.0 36.2 325./ 1.6
72 18.4 36.9 301./ 7.4
78 18.5 37.2 290./ 3.9
84 18.8 37.8 299./ 5.8
90 19.4 38.5 308./ 9.4
96 19.9 39.6 296./11.5
102 20.4 40.6 298./10.5
108 21.3 42.1 301./16.7
114 21.4 43.5 274./12.7
120 21.5 44.8 272./11.9
126 21.3 46.1 262./13.0

[JtSmarts]

:uarrow: If that were to verify, and Fred were to make it all the way across the Atlantic...it would hands down win the award for strangest track ever.

It would be kind of similar to another strange storm, Kyle of 2002.

[Blown Away]

12Z GFDL losing latitude after 126 hours. Maybe Fred will become more interesting than a far E Atlantic recurve.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL turns west but not much left after 126 hours

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z GFDL is west indeed. Looking at those points, it looks like it shows Fred doing a loop about 36 hours out before heading west.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has Fred hanging around as a Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[somethingfunny]

I have a hard time buying a WSW dip. Ike was a one-of-a-kind fluke and I doubt we'll see ridging that strong given that it's 2009.

Here's a similar storm that intensified rapidly east of 35W, then turned NNW, then bent back west before recurving: