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vbhoutex wrote:I have had a slow steady rain for at least the last two hours here at the house. But I don't think we are even up to 0.25" yet.
Wow, guess we are going to get something later..Has not looked to impressive all day today though. Radar images out of KBRO suggest a surface circulation is/has developed ESE of KBRO. This could just be a convectively induced vort center…that is what it kind of looks like on radar…such things can spin into larger system given time.
Additionally, numerous strong convection has developed near and to the N/E of the broad circulation. Latest 12Z (600am) models nearly all show development of a closed surface low along the lower TX coast lifting it NNE to NE with landfalls from Port Lavaca to Lake Charles. GFS shows the system moving NNE toward Matagorda Bay with tremendous moisture advection and excessive/flooding rains across SE TX. CMC shows the system moving more toward SW LA with the heaviest rains aimed at that region.
It is still very possible that the system will remain just an open trough…but very close watch is needed for the next 24-36 hours and residents should be ready for rapidly changing conditions.
Flyinman wrote:I am patiently waiting. Over that last 2 days I have barely received over .25" at the house. Again today everything is to the South and East. Man, if I cannot even get any tropical moisture I will be a little miffed. Everything looks so promising it just seems to go all around.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SOME ACTIVITY HAVING
MOVED INLAND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
1011MB SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST REASONING OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGES...WITH MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF TODAY THEN MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS NOW COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN KEEPING THIS SURFACE LOW WEAK AND
NON TROPICAL...AND ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF
2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES INTO THE CWA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW...AND MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. HPC QPF CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WAS LEANING TOWARDS ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ULTIMATELY
DECIDED AGAINST IT AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 3 DAY
PERIOD...AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. STILL AM EXPECTING SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
HWO.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...MODELS DEPICT AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR PROFILES OVER OUR CWA BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LLJ INCREASES TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES WITH MODEST 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AND VERY LOW LCL AND
LFC HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS SOME LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND IN FACT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
HIGHEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
ZONES WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WILL EXIST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING UPPER LOW EAST OF
THE AREA AND DRYING US OUT...BUT ECMWF LINGERING IT IN OR NEAR
THE CWA AND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND TAPER POPS DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 AND HAVE TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
THANKS TO WFOS HGX AND LIX FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE REMAINED WEAK ACROSS THE GULF...PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS RESULTED IN TIDES RUNNING
ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING AT ALL AREA TIDE
GAUGES. WITH PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS AND WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBLITY. THIS THREAT MAY BE
ENHANCED IN AREAS WHERE HURRICANE IKE CAUSED SEVERE COASTAL
EROSION LAST YEAR...SUCH AS LOWER JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
CAMERON PARISH COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO
TEXAS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
southerngale wrote:I don't know about the rest of you guys in SE TX, but I'm starting to wonder if this huge rain event is only a dream. Sure there's scattered rain out there and thank goodness some of the people to our west and southwest are getting rain, but for SE TX specifically, I have my doubts. And yes, I'm fully aware that later today or this time tomorrow, I could be trying to build an ark, but I'm thinking not. JMUO. (just my unofficial opinion)
High rain chances yesterday and today... got very light rain a couple of times yesterday... if measurable, wasn't worth it. After this morning's rain, dumped whatever I got plus anything that made it in there yesterday and I had .25
oooh... I better get my boots on.
From a different perspective, I'm just glad to get ANY rain as we'll take what we can get!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SUN HAS BRIEFLY EMERGED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ALLOWING READINGS TO
MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...SO MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAJORITY
OF PRECIP DIMINISHES IN AREAL COVERAGE BY MID EVENING. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AS LFQ OF JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW AND UPPER LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.
MODELS REALLY WANTING TO PEG NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE E TRAVELS OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE H85 CIRCULATION.
DON`T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH POPS BECAUSE THERE`S PLENTY OF
OTHER FACTORS THAT ALSO SUPPORT GOOD DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S TOO.
PERIODS OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE ON SAT AS NRN PERIPHERY OF
COASTAL TROF (OR POSSIBLY LOW) MOVES INLAND OVER SE TX WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLOODING TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF
WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONGOING HWO HAS THINGS WELL COVERED.
AFTER SAT...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUALLY LESS AREAL
PRECIP COVERAGE THRU MID WEEK AS BEST LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTS E AND
N. BUT WITH UPPER LOW STILL PARKED IN THE VICINITY WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SCT...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHRA/TSTMS. MODELS STILL NOT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT REGARDING WHEN THE TROF AXIS MOVES E OF THE
REGION AND WE GET INTO A DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT THURS LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT COMPROMISE FOR NOW. 47
&&
.MARINE....
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND THEN MOVE. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST.
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BAY SIDE OF GALVESTON ISLAND. AM EXPECTING ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. ANY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS WILL THEN HELP ELEVATE THE TIDES A BIT HIGHER. 40
southerngale wrote:Another round later tonight? I'm still waiting on the first round.
I know, I know. Some people are getting rain. But this much anticipated rain event is quickly becoming a snooze fest.
All of the forecasts made it sound like days of rain, and lots of it.
Diva wrote:southerngale wrote:Another round later tonight? I'm still waiting on the first round.
I know, I know. Some people are getting rain. But this much anticipated rain event is quickly becoming a snooze fest.
All of the forecasts made it sound like days of rain, and lots of it.
I totally agree! It's been dark, grey and gloomy all day but only spits of rain. Not complaining...just surprised is all. I DO hope that the rain holds off until after tonight's football games are done though! The game may be fun to watch being played in the mud but the band uniforms just don't look good with mud all over them!
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