Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[KatDaddy]

Joe B posted earlier today that the Upper TX Coast may see a period of tropical storm conditions tomorrow or Saturday. He thinks its to close to the coast to really develop but will bring very heavy rains from Corpus Christi NE up the coast.

[Ptarmigan]

Joe B posted earlier today that the Upper TX Coast may see a period of tropical storm conditions tomorrow or Saturday. He thinks its to close to the coast to really develop but will bring very heavy rains from Corpus Christi NE up the coast.

Should be an interesting weekend.

[cycloneye]

Reposted as is a new page as many may not have seen it.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Air Force Met]

Nice mid-upper level vorticity east of BRO as seen on BRO radar...

[KatDaddy]

Hey AFM its good to see you on the board! Whats your thought on the disturbed WGOM this evening?

[rrm]

does anybody think we will have a flooding event here in beaumont/port arthur area like houston had with allison?

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Air Force Met]

Hey AFM its good to see you on the board! Whats your thought on the disturbed WGOM this evening?

May get a hybrid Grace out of it...or a ST depression. At the end of the day...doesn't really matter what its named or not named. End result is lots of rain and some gusty wind on the coast. Lots of rain...especially if the EURO is right.

[rrm]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

i dont know to much but it looks to me like it is trying to form. can someone tell me if that is true or if that is my inexperienced eyes?

[southerngale]

rrm... nobody knows exactly what will happen. If you read through this thread, you'll likely find the best answers you're going to get, for now.

I don't know if you watch ch.6, but Greg said development of a TD or TS was possible, but that he didn't think it would be anything stronger than a fairly weak TS. As others have been saying, he said MANY inches of rain was possible and that's the main threat. No way to know how many or exactly where that will happen, if it indeed does.

[rrm]

rrm... nobody knows exactly what will happen. If you read through this thread, you'll likely find the best answers you're going to get, for now.

I don't know if you watch ch.6, but Greg said development of a TD or TS was possible, but that he didn't think it would be anything stronger than a fairly weak TS. As others have been saying, he said MANY inches of rain was possible and that's the main threat. No way to know how many or exactly where that will happen, if it indeed does.

thank you for your reply

[srainhoutx]

Thanks AFM. Messy setup IMHO.

[Air Force Met]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

i dont know to much but it looks to me like it is trying to form. can someone tell me if that is true or if that is my inexperienced eyes?

That's in the mid and upper levels. There appears to be a small LLC but very weak and east of the radar mid level center. Buoy 42902's winds have slowly veered around and the rest of the obs show that there may be something there. Have to wait and see...but I doubt that's it...or at least what will be it (the main LLC once it forms).

[lrak]

yes, I just checked all the surface buoys and coastal stations and they all have high pressure and a ESE wind?

[wxman57]

yes, I just checked all the surface buoys and coastal stations and they all have high pressure and a ESE wind?

Right, here's a plot. Not even a weak surface trof there now. Pressures in the 1012-1013mb range. The threat here is from heavy rain. Or, that would be the blessing here if you're on the lower TX coast. Right, Irak?

[cycloneye]

The latest discussion from Brownsville NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
854 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY WANED THIS EVENING AS ONE OF
SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. PLENTY OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED WITH PWATS HOVERING AT 2.5 INCHES IN
BRO...2.1 INCHES AT CRP AND EVEN 1.9 INCHES AT DEL RIO.
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE JET
STRUCTURE SHOWS A 40 TO 60 KNOT 250MB JET TRAVERSING THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A WEAK 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COAST. THE COMBINATION OF ALL
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIFT WITH REGENERATION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ENDS SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY. CURRENT GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[brunota2003]

Too much water too quickly, though, and no matter how bad the drought, you'll wish it never fell...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New 0Z nam not as aggressive. More of a Hybrid.

[HURAKAN]

613
ABNT20 KNHC 111152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE
COAST IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

Nothing much there on the surface chart this morning. Will post one when I get a good visible shot. Just a very weak surface trof from SW LA to off the lower TX coast. This should be a good rainmaker for TX/LA, not much more.