Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see much coming from this, too much shear, no center of low pressure, too close to land and not enough time.

[lrak]

yes, I just checked all the surface buoys and coastal stations and they all have high pressure and a ESE wind?

Right, here's a plot. Not even a weak surface trof there now. Pressures in the 1012-1013mb range. The threat here is from heavy rain. Or, that would be the blessing here if you're on the lower TX coast. Right, Irak?

Direct hit Mr. WXman57, all you guys & gals should see the smiles here in Corpus Christi! I just hope its not too much, we have a lot of road constuction going on, thats something you guys in Houston wouldn't know about

I did notice a spin on CC TX radar just south east of the radar location.

[wxman57]

Direct hit Mr. WXman57, all you guys & gals should see the smiles here in Corpus Christi! I just hope its not too much, we have a lot of road constuction going on, thats something you guys in Houston wouldn't know about

I did notice a spin on CC TX radar just south east of the radar location.

Enjoy your rain. I've taken the pins out of my voodoo doll. Still noting in my yard for the past 2-3 weeks.

[lrak]

I appreciate that WxMan57!

Now I know why I got so dang sunburn golfing last weekend.

[southerngale]

NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 11 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-106

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHY ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 12/1645Z
D. 27.5N 93.5W
E. 12/1700Z-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600Z-1200Z
B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 13/0345Z
D. 28.5N 93.5W
E. 13/0500Z-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY
FIXES IS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[southerngale]

NWS Lake Charles says tropical development unlikely. A portion of the AFD is posted below.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SOME ACTIVITY HAVING
MOVED INLAND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
1011MB SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST REASONING OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGES...WITH MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF TODAY THEN MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS NOW COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN KEEPING THIS SURFACE LOW WEAK AND
NON TROPICAL...AND ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF
2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES INTO THE CWA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW...AND MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. HPC QPF CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WAS LEANING TOWARDS ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ULTIMATELY
DECIDED AGAINST IT AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 3 DAY
PERIOD...AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. STILL AM EXPECTING SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
HWO.

[tailgater]

Wow didn't think they would fly into a wave of moisture but maybe they know something we don't. Still I'd bet it gets canceled.

A little rotation just south of Lake Charles should move inland.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[wxman57]

:uarrow:
Wow didn't think they would fly into a wave of moisture but maybe they know something we don't. Still I'd bet it gets canceled.

A little rotation just south of Lake Charles should move inland.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

It's just a POSSIBLE recon mission. They won't fly unless a low center is forming. Now I wonder if the possible recon mission might qualify this area of potential development as an invest? What are the criteria for an invest, anyway? I'm going to ask Bill Read that next time I see him.

Surface obs now indicate a very weak low pressure area possibly forming about 85 miles ESE of Corpus Christi. However, this is only supported by a single buoy report of a NW wind at 5 kts. Otherwise, all other obs indicate a trof from LA to offshore south TX.

[HURAKAN]

Elsewhere in the tropics
A low pressure system is over eastern Texas and the adjoining waters along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast. This low is under high shear, about 25 knots, and is not tropical. Shear is expected to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days. The low should remain non-tropical during this time, but will bring much-needed heavy rains to drought-stricken south Texas. Flooding problems may also occur, and flash flood watches have been posted for six counties in extreme South Texas.

Jeff Masters

[Brent]

Recon flights are probably a just in case thing given this is the Gulf and it's close to land... it's a lot easier to cancel them than to schedule one at the last-minute. I'd be very surprised if they actually flew. I see no evidence of anything developing.

[wxman57]

South Texas buoy back to NE wind 10 kts, so no low evident on surface obs. Just a trof. I'd argue that it certainly is tropical moisture, though. Sure, it's under moderate shear. But interaction with a tropical wave with an upper low is a classic way TCs develop. That's what we have here off the TX coast, it's not a baroclinic (or frontal) low that may form. It would be a tropical low.

[Portastorm]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS. It's now developing the upper low over south-central TX vs. the NW Gulf. That would mean rain all along the Texas coast vs. offshore. This is in agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. So maybe a better chance of rain all along coastal section of Texas this weekend.

As for tropical development, conditions just aren't right this week. But with lingering moisture in the western Gulf early next week (and decreasing shear), we may have to keep a close eye out for a possible spin-up.

Now I like the sound of that wxman 57 ... a nice upper low parked over ... oh, say the Hill Country? The idea of 3-5 days of steady rainfall on top of my catastrophic, Biblical drought would be a beautiful thing.

I hope nobody gets mad at me for this post from Tuesday ... it's not often I get what I want, weatherwise at least!

[Sanibel]

Shear is the deciding factor. However we've all seen sheared broad troughs strengthen and develop. This is the first of the numerous dipping troughs to actually make a run at developing. It took until September.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CENTERED
OVER NEW JERSEY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SURFACES PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[bayoubebe]

Looks like one messy weekend. We've been getting bouts of rain on/off today and yesterday.
At least you Texans will get relief from the drought.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at buoys and sat loops I see a VERY BROAD low pressure area moving NNE along the TX coast. I know there is a lot of moisture in place that just needs a trigger, but I don't see anything right now that will do that. On the WV one can obviously see all of the moisture. Am I missing some shortwaves or something moving into the area from the West or NW that may trigger the heavier rains? We have had some brief downpours in some areas of SE TX, but nothing of a strong sustained nature as yet. I do think this system was more wound up yesterday than it is today. Just wondering what is going on.
I am not one to disagree with NHC very often, but where are they getting the lowering pressures? I saw no evidence of that in the buoys and in fact most of them were rising slowly.

[cycloneye]

SURFACES PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[attallaman]

That SE regional radar on Accuweather is lit up like a G.E. multi-color Christmas tree. Pretty much the entire coastline of LA is covered with rain. It's overcast here but no rain. Mobile, AL TV METs were saying this morning that they would be getting some rain tomorrow and Sunday from this. So is this system eventually going to track my way or track further into TX where it seems to be needed more due to their state's drought?

[bayoubebe]

attallaman: it looks awfully close to your area. I'm tired of it already, I hope it does move along, and quickly.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/inte ... ation=true

[srainhoutx]

Looking at buoys and sat loops I see a VERY BROAD low pressure area moving NNE along the TX coast. I know there is a lot of moisture in place that just needs a trigger, but I don't see anything right now that will do that. On the WV one can obviously see all of the moisture. Am I missing some shortwaves or something moving into the area from the West or NW that may trigger the heavier rains? We have had some brief downpours in some areas of SE TX, but nothing of a strong sustained nature as yet. I do think this system was more wound up yesterday than it is today. Just wondering what is going on.
I am not one to disagree with NHC very often, but where are they getting the lowering pressures? I saw no evidence of that in the buoys and in fact most of them were rising slowly.

The only thing that I see that may be a trigger is the Upper Low moving ESE near N MX / New Mexico...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv