Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110757
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DUE TO LIGHT STEERING
WINDS...MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE INCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WEAK FLOW TODAY EXPECTED TO INDUCE NUMEROUS TSRA
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR PR. STORM MOTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT DUE TO WEAK STEERING...BUT MOST LIKELY CONVECTION TO BE OVER
TJMZ AND TJPS 18Z-22Z WITH MVFR TO IFR TEMPO CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
WITH SEAS BELOW THE 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW THE 17 KNOTS. ON
SUNDAY...TWO SMALL SWELLS WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE FIRST
SET OF SWELLS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE HURRICANE FRED AND THE OTHER
SETS OF SWELLS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF VIRGINIA. AT THIS MOMENT THE MODELS ARE ONLY INCREASING
THE SEAS TO AROUND 6 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 10 40 40 40
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1010
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. FIRST VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W
AFRICA COAST AS THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSES INDICATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE TO 600 MB ANOMALOUS
WIND SIGNATURE. A 11/0650 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

[msbee]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Another one to watch?

[Gustywind]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Another one to watch?

Absolutely Barbara, things are heating up near Africa....
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 35.0W AT 11/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 640 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DRIFTING TO THE N AT
1 KT. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF FRED IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 31W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN FARTHER N FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 26W-35W.SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1010
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 20W-22W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa...and the twave with low pressure associated

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TUTT LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER AS IT MEANDERS ABOVE
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. MAY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK SURGE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT OVERALL...FAIRLY
NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DID INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN LATEST FORECAST...AS GFS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BRINGING A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ALL EASTERN
ISLANDS THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CU LINES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE. THE YUNQUE STREAMER WILL SPREAD WNW
GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCEMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...THE STEERING WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE ESE COMPONENT
THEREFOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A MORE
MID TO UPPER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS SHEARED APART THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION
AT LEAST 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. A 0358Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWED BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN
OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT. THERE IS NO REASON TO FORECAST ANYTHING BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FRED WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
REGENERATION IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SHEAR
AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF FRED AT THAT TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THEREAFTER FRED...OR THE REMNANTS
THEREOF...IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. BESIDES THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH HAS DISPLAYED A
SOUTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.8N 33.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 33.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 33.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0600Z 20.5N 37.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0600Z 24.0N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 17/0600Z 25.5N 53.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends . Here is a sat pic of the Lesser Antilles...all seems quiet

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Always looking to our east...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 33.6W AT 12/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 560 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRED IS NOW
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. FRED HAS BEEN
SHEARED TONIGHT WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 1920N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONVECTION IS NOW MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N20W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N81W TO
17N84W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 11N27W 11N35W 9N53W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
9N17W TO 6N21W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-46W AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
55W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE
GULF ALONG 27N85W ALONG 29N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW OVER TEXAS/MEXICO ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE TO NEAR THE 1008 SURFACE LOW WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NE FLORIDA. THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE W GULF S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 94W INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E GULF E OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N90W LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA
TO W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE SURFACE HAS BEGUN TO DRY
OUT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N N OF
20N TO ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED THE ITCZ CROSSING THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA IS S OF S OF 11N E OF 78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 10N TO INLAND
OVER PANAMA FROM 78W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W IS REMARKABLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N74W EXTENDING SW
TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 76W-78W.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC TO 23N BETWEEN 70W-77W
WITH WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N69W TO 25N74W.
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO
32N66W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75
NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 23N65W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-70W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-56W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING
SW ALONG 28N45W THEN W 28N52W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS S
OF THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONT CENTERED NEAR 21N41W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N49W TO 15N51W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC FROM
THE TROPICS TO 30N ANCHORED NEAR 19N21W AND PROVIDING THE SLY
SHEAR OVER TROPICAL STORM FRED.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 120843
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR
DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. THE
WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS..A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND BRUSH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER ONE OR TWO OF THE
ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATING THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ALL EASTERN
ISLANDS THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CU LINES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE. THE YUNQUE STREAMER WILL SPREAD WNW
GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCEMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...THE STEERING WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE ESE COMPONENT
THEREFOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A MORE
MID TO UPPER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-22Z TSRA
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TJMZ...TJBQ AND VC TJPS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL TODAY WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4
FEET AND WINDS AT BELOW 16 KNOTS. ON SUNDAY...TWO SMALL SWELLS
WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE AS SWELLS
FROM FRED AND SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO A LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A
FETCH NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. WILL BE REACHING OUR
LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 76 / 30 40 40 0
STT 88 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Gustywind]

[HUC]

THE GREAT HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 1928
81 years, in 1928 september the 12th,a tremendous and devastating hurricane destroyed Guadeloupe,living more than 1.200 people dead terrific winds,deluge orf rain and a 4meters storm surge...at today despite the violence of Hugo "cyclone 28 "is the most intense over Guadeloupe. Then,Monserrat,ST Kitss...then ,Luis,the day after,Puerto Rico was leveled by this hurricane at this time,a category 5 and very long lasting. Then,after that "cyclone 28" caused a lot of devastations in Florida.
So prayers for all the victims,remembering....Does somebodygot photos of this hurricane???

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 131154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

THE GREAT HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 1928
81 years, in 1928 september the 12th,a tremendous and devastating hurricane destroyed Guadeloupe,living more than 1.200 people dead terrific winds,deluge orf rain and a 4meters storm surge...at today despite the violence of Hugo "cyclone 28 "is the most intense over Guadeloupe. Then,Monserrat,ST Kitss...then ,Luis,the day after,Puerto Rico was leveled by this hurricane at this time,a category 5 and very long lasting. Then,after that "cyclone 28" caused a lot of devastations in Florida.
So prayers for all the victims,remembering....Does somebodygot photos of this hurricane???

Excellent post HUC as usual always a pleasure to read you! Yeah that was the big one, extremely powerfull cane!!! I'm glad to read the reports of Alain Gillot-Pétré during this event in " Le 12 Septembre 1928, roman d'un Cyclone" and in my personnal book " Les cyclones en Guadeloupe, 4 siècles de cataclysmiques, 2003". This guy have well described this feature in many aspects! I have a special thought for this member of the ADO, and its family, we really have lost a passionnate personn, pretty interresting a rainbow of hapiness, joy given its personnality. Sure you have known him better than me HUC and it's an euphemisma... because i've never meet this special man! When i discover its presence on a few books, that's was its ultimate year of life December 1999...Hopefully the membres of the ADO have kept all his works intact and it's a very good news for the future.
Nice regards Gustywind for the ADO's family

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 130857
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AT
10 MPH OR LESS.

LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$