ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

Here is the GFS 06Z at 288 hours, with Fred impacting South FL, albeit the model run has low resolution.

It would truly be the story of the season considering everybody has written Fred off as a fish system, only for it to beeline west and make landfall.

Hehe. Wxman57's gonna love this. He'll be turning purple.

[HURAKAN]

Going down fast

[gatorcane]

12Z hits South FL yet again, OK its peaking my interest:

[UpTheCreek]

Wow, haven't looked in a couple days, thought it was heading for Spain! I've got some readin' to do............

[Derek Ortt]

yes, the GFS has landfall in South Florida

as a wave

[AdamFirst]

What's the forecasted shear over the next week?

[gatorcane]

yes, the GFS has landfall in South Florida

as a wave

Derek that looks like a nice H5 ridge over the Western Atlantic in 7 days, I don't think it matter if it is a wave or not it would head west in this case.

Interesting that Fred even has a chance of making it this far west now....and that the Western Atlantic ridge seems to finally be happening after all of these months

Of course this is the long-range GFS we are talking about so I really don't want to say that I trust it one bit

[gatorcane]

75 kts at 5am, that's a little generous IMO. I see significant weakening happening rate now. Fred is quickly becoming a shallower system and I would not be surprised to see Fred not make it above 20N before turning W or WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

I'm curious how far west it ends up and if it can regenerate down the road when it hits better conditions. Right now the GFS keeps moving it all the way west towards the Bahamas and through FL (as a wave), run after run.

This has suddenly become something to watch just when you think things are going to be quiet in September.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmm.. awful quiet in here. Everyone's convinced the TUTT will do Fred in I guess. Not even wild speculation heh

[gatorcane]

Hmm.. awful quiet in here. Everyone's convinced the TUTT will do Fred in I guess. Not even wild speculation heh

Yeah I wouldn't be so sure Fred is done unfortunately -- the more i look at things, the more I don't like this westrunner possibility the GFS is showing with a large and strong building Atlantic ridge.

[Sanibel]

The Atlantic has eaten every single one of these remnant systems alive this year.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah this season has been goofy. Too many times I have called for dissipation only to see something hang on under terrible conditions. Still a lot of water to cross under hostile conditions, but the pattern seems to be changing with Atl ridge building. You may end up with a tropical storm in the end. I hope not because a tropical storm in your neck of the woods usually means trouble for the carolinas. I want to get some offshore fishing in. Then again you may a have Cat 3 "naked swirl" bearing down on you heh..

[hurricanetrack]

You guys better hope it is a wave- otherwise I am mailing out some plastic crows to quite a few people who were as sure as the sun would come up that Fred would never affect the U.S.

It will be coming west, according to the GFS anyway, at a time when the same model also foresees a more favorable MJO pattern. Something to think about. Of course, the ECMWF will have none of it and keeps Fred well off the East Coast and stronger too- that's probably why. So while I doubt that Fred's ghost would be much of an issue, it is not completely impossible either. Water temps won't be the issue- only upper level support I guess. So we'll see.

[cycloneye]

What Mark is talking aboot the MJO being favorable in the second half of September.Is comming !

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 112039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY SHEAR AND
CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS STILL
NEAR A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT MICROWAVE IMAGES...
ALTHOUGH SPARSE...CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...AND THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. SINCE THE SHEAR OVER FRED
IS NOT GOING TO RELAX...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRED WILL
GRADUALLY FADE.

FRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...AND HAS BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. BRAVO TO MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH
REALLY ANTICIPATED THIS RARE MOTION FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE CYCLONE
LOCATED IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND BELT. LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH...A PATTERN MORE COMMON FOR SEPTEMBER...PROVIDING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FRED. THE
WESTWARD BEND AFTER THREE DAYS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.1N 34.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.4N 34.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.8N 34.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 36.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 21.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z 24.0N 50.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[somethingfunny]

Hmm.. awful quiet in here. Everyone's convinced the TUTT will do Fred in I guess. Not even wild speculation heh

Yeah I wouldn't be so sure Fred is done unfortunately -- the more i look at things, the more I don't like this westrunner possibility the GFS is showing with a large and strong building Atlantic ridge.

It would be more unprecedented than Ike's crossing of the Atlantic last year. I don't think the ridging will be strong enough to make it happen.

[somethingfunny]

Aren't the models developing the wave currently exiting Africa? What interaction scenarios are being considered right now? The way I see it, either the new wave finds a weakness behind Fred and scoots northward like old 95L, or we get a good old-fashioned Fujiwhara that could drastically affect Fred's path....or a 3rd option: there's so little remaining of Fred that it just gets absorbed into the newer wave.

[HURAKAN]

Bursting back

[jaxfladude]

Please say Fred is not up to something nasty

[hurricanetrack]

It is not up to something nasty. Not yet. Euro says "buh bye" way out in 10 days or so while GFS is slowly coming around to that idea. At least the 18z GFS was not as far west this time. Did have it making a heck of a come back considering the dire forecast for its demise. We shall see. If it hits Bermuda or comes to FL or where ever as Fred anything, wave, what ever, crows are being mailed out. I say this in jest of course, but it was so funny reading some of the thoughts early on from the famed experts on here about how Fred will never make it past 40W and such. People can be wrong, that's fine, but to dismiss something so confidently is kind of amusing. I think that Fred will really help to boost the ACE since it appears it will be around for another week plus!