Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[attallaman]

attallaman...same here. All the reds appear to be staying south and moving east...now under yellow. Nice steady light shower with a slight breeze. Perfect!

Same here now but it's been breezy most of the day. Earlier today the NWS issued a coastal wind advisory for winds coming out of the GOM towards the coast in the 30-40kt catagory. That advisory expired at 12:30 p.m. today.

[attallaman]

That, my friend, is a Texas mosquito!

You'll have to forgive me, I'm from coastal Mississippi. Thanks for clarifying that.

[Diva]

Orange County Texas getting some healthy showers now. Been drizzling all day but shower activity has finally picked over the last several hours. I was beginning to wonder if the showers were all gonna go to our east to our friends in LA.

[CrazyC83]

That shear seems to be quite favorable in the west-central Gulf...

[attallaman]

Orange County Texas getting some healthy showers now. Been drizzling all day but shower activity has finally picked over the last several hours. I was beginning to wonder if the showers were all gonna go to our east to our friends in LA.

Your friends in coastal Mississippi have also been getting hit pretty hard today by these showers. The rain is beginning to pick up again, falling much harder than it was about an hour ago. What is it they say about L pressure systems? The wettest or the dirtiest side is the east side? That would seem to make sense to me if the center of the L pressure system is located to my W. I believe that's right, if it's not I'm sure someone here will correct me on that.

[lebron23]

what a bust this is for HGX...

[weatherguy425]

What is interesting is that the sun is now peaking out in HGX's southweatern counties along convective temps to be met...lets see what happens

[lrak]

Corpus Christi International Airport
Lat: 27.77 Lon: -97.5 Elev: 44
Last Update on Sep 12, 1:51 pm CDT


Mostly Cloudy

82 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 79 %
Wind Speed: NW 15 MPH
Barometer: 29.74" (1007.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 89 °F (32 °C)

Thunderstorms popping again around here.

[mpic]

That cell down east of Freeport heading to MB looks none too friendly. Hugging the coast and doesn't seem to be weakening any. Looks like GAL is going to get the most benefit today.

[bayoubebe]

EDIT: never mind, just saw jasons post above. "Let's get back on topic please"
As far as the current conditions, we are getting bouts of rain on/off. When it does rain at times, it is very heavy, enough to cause flooding in certain areas. Messy road conditions now. Use caution.

[jasons2k]

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
AUSTIN/TRAVIS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
AUSTIN/TRAVIS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CITY FLOOD ENGINEERS ADVISE THAT THE PEDESTRIAN TRAILS ALONG
SHOAL, JOHNSON, AND WALLER CREEKS IN THE DOWNTOWN WILL SOON BE
FLOODED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. PEDESTRIANS SHOULD AVOID USING
TRAILS ALONG THESE CREEKS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON

[srainhoutx]

HGX echos why many of us are concerned that we are not out of the woods yet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN
WHILE 1006 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
A SFC COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY CONVECTION TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF A SFC FOCUS HAVE WORKED AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SFC LOW/COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE SFC
FOCUS THAT HAS BEEN LACKING RECENTLY. IN ADDITION UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SE TX AS WELL. PWS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
SE TX TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY KIND OF A WATCH FOR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AS HINTED AT IN
SPC`S DAY 2 OUTLOOK THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO SUNDAY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWOHGX.

SFC LOW WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS SHIFTING TO A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS (PWS 1.8-2.0 INCHES)
REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING AIDING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS FILTERS LOWER
PW AIR INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT STILL APPEARS A
LITTLE FAST MOVING IT OUT WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE MEAN WHICH SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF OF MOISTURE/PRECIP AT THAT
POINT. THE ECMWF REMAINS A DAY OR TWO SLOWER THAN THIS. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES TUESDAY TO AROUND
1.4 INCHES BY THURSDAY. WILL TAPER DOWN POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE
LEVEL TUESDAY TO 20S AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

[wxman57]

Almost enough rain to wet the ground in southwest Houston, almost. I guess I'll go set out my sprinkler.

[weatherguy425]

wxman- what do you think botu the afternoon discussion?

[gboudx]

I guess us folks in DFW are hogging up all the rain. Since yesterday, I've had 2.5" of rain, but haven't checked the gauge since this morning. It's been raining non-stop all-day.

[gatorcane]

Looks like all of the action is shifting to the Eastern GOM and Florida. The ULL and surface feature over Texas continues to pull northward, and with it all of that rain. So looks like its over for those in Houston and coastal Texas. The West Coast of FL is under alot of flood warnings and watches as that part of the trough axis over the Northern GOM really gets going. Additionally radar imagery out of Tampa shows some possible training of cells just south of Tampa Bay into Sarasota and Bradenton.

It's likely code yellow over the NW GOM is gone by the next advisory. It may be worth putting a code yellow over EGOM and FL....but development chances there look very low also, but higher than the NW GOM. Overall development in the GOM continues to be very low at this time.

[weatherguy425]

Actually the ULL is still moving very slowly over NCNTRL Texas so the heavy rain threat is not over. As for the coastal low if it just east of Corpus Chritsi and while I dont think it will develop that could be another heavy rain producer...

[BigA]

Is it possible that we are looking at the wrong side of the Gulf? There is next to no shear in the eastern gulf, and pressures are falling, not to mention the large amount of thunderstorm activity.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is going to cause a lot of flooding over FL today and tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[JonathanBelles]

Already is EJ. Manatee county has had 6" in a few spots, and the normal rivers are well above flood stage, and a few of the not-so-normal rivers are expected to be well above normal.