Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[TampaFl]

NWS Tampa AFD:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 121757
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
157 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

...FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE BAY AREA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY....

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER TEXAS...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTH...WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR START TO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE
SAW TODAY...WITH CONVECTION STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
TOWARDS THE COAST AND INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAINS
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS STORM TOTAL PRECIP SHOWS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR MANATEE COUNTY
WHERE 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS.

FOR MONDAY...SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH ENOUGH
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN...AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE SFC IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS...ONE TO THE NW
AROUND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION AND ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD LIFT OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND KEEP WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
TROUGH IN PLACE TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEAK RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA. A BIT DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4000-6000FT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AND TO NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS
FOR MONDAY. BRIEFLY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 87 76 90 / 60 70 30 50
FMY 76 88 76 91 / 50 60 30 50
GIF 75 88 75 91 / 50 70 30 50
SRQ 76 87 76 90 / 60 60 30 50
BKV 73 87 72 90 / 60 70 30 50
SPG 77 87 78 90 / 60 70 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

[lrak]

Corpus Christi, Naval Air Station
Lat: 27.68 Lon: -97.28 Elev: 20
Last Update on Sep 12, 4:56 pm CDT


Partly Cloudy

83 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 74 %
Wind Speed: E 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.67" (1004.7 mb) Dewpoint: 74 °F (23 °C)
Heat Index: 90 °F (32 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

This is strange, I can't remember the last time our pressure was that low.

East wind? Wouldn't that put the low below CCTX or right over us?

Check out SA

San Antonio International Airport
Lat: 29.54 Lon: -98.47 Elev: 809
Last Update on Sep 12, 4:53 pm CDT


Mostly Cloudy

82 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 63 %
Wind Speed: N 15 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 29.73" (1005.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Heat Index: 85 °F (29 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi


strange.

[Nimbus]

This is a broad area of low surface pressure 29.70 at buoy 42002 and 29.73 at the mid gulf buoy 42001. Shear is a lot less over in the mid gulf so if something gets going there..

[CrazyC83]

Might want to reclassify this as 97L?

[cycloneye]

400
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
FRED...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FRED CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[attallaman]

More rain is beginning to enter my state from the SW, weather radar image courtesy of WWLTV4.COM, NOLA.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

The last visible showed some sort of swirl in the bay of Campeche and the pressure is as low as around the yellow area?


Shear is lower.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Pressure low
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[lrak]

More rain is beginning to enter my state from the SW, weather radar image courtesy of WWLTV4.COM, NOLA.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

hey me too mine is from the north http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[attallaman]

More rain is beginning to enter my state from the SW, weather radar image courtesy of WWLTV4.COM, NOLA.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

hey me too mine is from the north http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I spoke to relatives earlier today in Houston, Pasadena, and Cypress and they all said they didn't get a drop as of 5:00 p.m. local time today. Glad that some rain is heading your way.

[LaBreeze]

Seems like this huge rain threat for TX or LA or the Western GOM has been a bit overblown. Not much going on and doesn't look like there will be much to come. I just don't see it happening, sorry.

[srainhoutx]

Seems like this huge rain threat for TX or LA or the Western GOM has been a bit overblown. Not much going on and doesn't look like there will be much to come. I just don't see it happening, sorry.

Really? Bell County in N TX with nearly 20 inches of rain and Williamson as well as Travis County in Central TX with water rescues. While this was never a pure tropical system, it has indeed been an event that will likly be known for ending an Extreme Drought in much of the area. Just my 0.02 cents worth.

[LaBreeze]

Seems like this huge rain threat for TX or LA or the Western GOM has been a bit overblown. Not much going on and doesn't look like there will be much to come. I just don't see it happening, sorry.

Really? Bell County in N TX with nearly 20 inches of rain and Williamson as well as Travis County in Central TX with water rescues. While this was never a pure tropical system, it has indeed been an event that will likly be known for ending an Extreme Drought in much of the area. Just my 0.02 cents worth.

I'm glad that parts of TX did get some much needed rain, unfortunatley with water rescues, but I was referring to east TX and western LA. We were being told that we would get up to 8 inches or more in some spots. It didn't happen yet around here.

[HurricaneJoe22]

anyone notice the yellow shaded area in the 8 p.m. TWO graphic looks a little like pacman?

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... K&loop=yes

wow, central Texas is getting soaked!

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm... SE TX ehhh...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
938 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 934 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
WEIMAR. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR AND
CELLS HAD BEGUN TO TRAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AND MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DRIVING TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WEIMER AND FRELSBURG.

[nashrobertsx]

Irak,The radar you posted is not a current radar. It's a total rainfall from weds till now. It freaked me out when I first looked at it and then I looked at other radars, and it wasnt the same. It took me a while to figure out it is a 5 day total. I know it's bad and there are flash flood wanrings up now for central texas, but when I hit on your link and saw all that deep red, my jaw dropped. I thought it was the real time radar of current storms.

[wxman57]

No chance of development in NW Gulf now. No storms, strong shear. It's done. Do have to keep an eye on eastern Gulf. That's a tropical wave we've been tracking for 10 days causing the flare up there. Probably won't develop, though.

[jinftl]

Current satellite says it all....we are talking about a rain event over land, not a developing tropical system. I can't imagine the code yellow being kept up in the western gulf (or perhaps even the eastern) much longer unless i am missing something.

[Sanibel]

We had some much needed rain from this. It's still rumbling out my window. 2009 continues to defy strong formation in the west basin.

[jasons2k]

Seems like this huge rain threat for TX or LA or the Western GOM has been a bit overblown. Not much going on and doesn't look like there will be much to come. I just don't see it happening, sorry.

I don't think this overblown at all, especially when the ULL is still in the I-35 corridor. Some of the amounts in Central Texas have been incredible with danergous flash flooding.







Shot at 2009-09-12