SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Glad I took a long nap this afternoon, David. May be time to put on a fresh pot of coffee.

[vbhoutex]

Glad I took a long nap this afternoon, David. May be time to put on a fresh pot of coffee.

I'm thinking about it. What also is worrisome to me is the WV showing to Shortwave behind this blow up helping trigger this. Sometimes I wish I wasn't so weather savvy. (Wait did I just give myself a compliment? )

[Yankeegirl]

I love sleeping hearing the rain... and i am making chicken soup tomorrow... the yucky, rainy weather would be perfect!!

[jasons2k]

Glad I took a long nap this afternoon, David. May be time to put on a fresh pot of coffee.

I'm thinking about it. What also is worrisome to me is the WV showing to Shortwave behind this blow up helping trigger this. Sometimes I wish I wasn't so weather savvy. (Wait did I just give myself a compliment? )

LOL

Seriously though, looking at that shortwave you know which way the blob is going to pivot

[srainhoutx]

Lavaca County is getting hit now. Yikes...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT.

* AT 1128 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING
FROM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HALLETTSVILLE...SUBLIME...AND SPEAKS

RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR
SUBLIME AND OVER ANOTHER AREA 10 MILES SOUTH OF HALLETSVILLE. A
LARGER AREA OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCH RAINS HAS BEEN ESTIMATED OVER
PORTIONS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LAVACA COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

TXC089-481-130645-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0048.090913T0455Z-090913T0645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-
1155 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1149 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISE. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AN HOUR. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 145 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER HIGHWAYS FM 1160 AND FM 441 WILL CAUSE PONDING AND WATER OVER
THE ROADS IN LOW LYING AREAS IN WHARTON COUNTY.

[jasons2k]

I just went outside and the moisture is just streaming in from the SE now - it almost looks like a LLJ is in place.

[vbhoutex]

Instead of dwindling it appears to me that our storms to the west are spreading and unfortunately for those currently under them moving slowly. The posts from HGX above tell the story. Still not positive this will make it into the metro area proper, but as these storms continue to build further south it will be harder and harder for them to miss Houston. Some of the earlier heavy rains that were North of I-10 have now made it into far Western Harris County as what appears to be light rain. Still not comfortable enough with this to hit the sack yet.

[Yankeegirl]

No rain here yet, just went outside and it sure is moist out there!! not to mention, my knee is starting to ache... the rain isnt too far off....

[srainhoutx]

One concerning aspect is the storms in Gulf starting to bend back to the NW. Could create an impressive inflow for the convection to our W. Also noticing development near and E of Victoria as well. No rain yet at my location though.

EDIT to add that HGX is buying the 00Z NAM solution in the Aviation Update.

[srainhoutx]

Latest from NESDIS...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/13/09 0446Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST THRU 0345Z GOES-WEST THRU 0430Z GG
.
LOCATION...C TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DEEPENING YET STATIONARY CONVECTION.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LAST GOES-EAST BEFORE ECLIPSE AND
GOES-WEST IMAGERY SINCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A REDUCTION OF CIRRUS AROUND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEPENING/COOLING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE STATIONARY UPPER LOW. COLDEST TOPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BURST OF
VERY COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO -60C ACROSS LAVACA AND COLORADO COUNTIES
MVG EXTREMELY SLOWLY INTO WHARTON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OF 2.15" PW PER
GOES SOUNDER AND GPS NETWORK ALONG WITH INCREASED SFC MST FLUX/CONVERGENCE
INTO THE COMPLEX...RATES OF 2.5"/HR CAN BE EXPECTED AND MANUALLY ESTIMATED
TOTALS OF 4-6" HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ALONG THE COUNTY LINE.

WV/IR LOOP HAS SHOWN FOR HOURS THAT THE CENTER OF THIS WELL STACKED
CYCLONE HAS BEEN NEAR OR OVER MILAM COUNTY... AS THE SUBTLE VORT LOBES OR
EMBEDDED S/W ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER...THERE IS SOME ELONGATION
OF A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW (EASTLAND/BROWN COUNTIES)THROUGH TO SE
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX OF CELLS IN LAVACA/COLORADO. THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE CONVERGENCE FOCUS AND HAS LEAD TO A FEW OTHER ISOLATED BUT
WARMER TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF RATES OF 1.5-1.75"/HR OVER N MILAM,
ALONG THE BOSQUE/HILL COUNTY LINE AND N HAMILTON COUNTY...SLOW MOTIONS
AND HIGH TOTALS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROVE TO ECLIPSE FFG
VALUES WITH THESE KINDS OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED RATES FROM THE BACKGROUND
.5-.75" MORE STRATIFORM RATES.

[southerngale]

Glad I took a long nap this afternoon, David. May be time to put on a fresh pot of coffee.

I'm thinking about it. What also is worrisome to me is the WV showing to Shortwave behind this blow up helping trigger this. Sometimes I wish I wasn't so weather savvy. (Wait did I just give myself a compliment? )

LOL

Seriously though, looking at that shortwave you know which way the blob is going to pivot

How about some details for the less weather savvy folks? Should the storms reach the Houston area? What about the Beaumont area?

[Ptarmigan]

This should be an interesting night. I guess the rain could happen during the overnight hours. One year ago tonight at this very moment, we were all watching Ike crashing into Texas.

[srainhoutx]

How about some details for the less weather savvy folks? Should the storms reach the Houston area? What about the Beaumont area?

SG, these storms should work into Houston on into Beaumont in the morning, IMHO. SE TX/SW LA isn't out of the woods by any strech of the imagination. Slow movement is worrisome as well as redevelopment in the Gulf moving in and feeding this event. The Shortwave is certainly acting as a trigger.

EDIT to add I just heard some thunder for the first time at my location with light rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

Milam County (NW of Bryan/College Station) as well as a new FFW for Lee County continues to get hammered...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
114 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

TXC331-130730-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-090913T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MILAM TX-
114 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR MILAM
COUNTY...

AT 112 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAINLY OVER WESTERN MILAM COUNTY. THE
STORMS PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. RADAR
INDICATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST
2 HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 230 AM CDT.
THE MILAM COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT STILL REPORTS NUMEROUS ROAD
CLOSURES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC287-130915-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0043.090913T0612Z-090913T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT.

* AT 109 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LAST HOUR BY RADAR.
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR FROM SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LEE COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TANGLEWOOD...LEXINGTON...FEDOR AND DIME BOX.

[Diva]

Woke up to thunder in the distance. Wonder what today will hold over here in Orange County for our "rain event"?

Edit to add - I see where the thunder is coming from. There's a line of thunderstorms approaching Orange from the south. Pretty healthy line too.

[Flyinman]

Had a nice 30 minute shower this morning around 8:00 but now the sun is trying to break through. Perhaps it will get warm enough to day to fire up some storms.

[vbhoutex]

Radar indicates that SE TX appears to be between the two systems that were/are feeding the rains in TX. The weak low over the GOM moved NE overnight and it now impacting areas to our East some. The ULL seems to have retrograded NNW to me or are my eyes messed up? If that ULL moves E we might get some rain in SE TX, but it does appear we are out of the woods for any further heavy rain threats. JMHO.

[Ptarmigan]

Got nothing last night. I did see the Sun, which could heat things up.

[Flyinman]

Just had another 30 minute shower followed by full sun..Wow, got to love days like this.