Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[Ptarmigan]

They needed the rain.

[ROCK]

I remember telling Portastorm that these droughts tend to balance out in the long run and usually its all at once. I need to play the lotto....

[LaBreeze]

Is the wave in the eastern GOM expected to move? If so, in what direction?

[lrak]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

this year is crazy, that blob in the EGOM may go staight north or over florida I'd say based on that flow chart.

I'm still wiggin on the spin over central texas.

[southerngale]

Still code yellow... I'm surprised.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[somethingfunny]

For a "tropical" rain event, it sure is cold outside.

This is exactly what we've needed. Nice and steady as she goes.

[xironman]

The little blob in the BOC looks interesting


There was a wind shift when it went by the buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055.

Code: Select all

MM  DD  TIME(CDT)  WDIR  WSPD(kts)
09  13  1:50 am    S     19.4
09  13  12:50 am   S     17.5
09  12  11:50 pm   SW    3.9
09  12  10:50 pm   SW    1.9
09  12  9:50 pm    E     9.7
09  12  8:50 pm    E     7.8
09  12  7:50 pm    ENE   5.8
09  12  6:50 pm    NE    7.8
09  12  5:50 pm    NNE   3.9

[brunota2003]

That buoy hasn't reported since 2:50 am EDT, either...hmm

[jinftl]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[wxman57]

Poof! Gone (vorticity inland). Next!

[lrak]

Wouldn't be the same w/o "Bones" wxman57 but this wasn't really an invest so I'll let you slide, but don't let it happen again.

I still can't believe all the rain that occurred in central Texas....amazing!

El Nino means a good chance of a cold wet winter for Texas right?

[Stephanie]

I'm glad that this area of Texas will be getting rain because I know how desparately dry it is. I just wish it would be more of a soaking than a flooding rain.

[bayoubebe]

We're not done in this area yet. Take a look. This may be the last of it though, I hope.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Wow, Florida mess looks to have cleared up quickly.

[attallaman]

Looks like more rain is headed my way too. Is this rain that's heading my way what remains of that TX system or not? Weather radar is courtesy of WWL TV4.COM, NOLA.


http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

[attallaman]

Rain is knocking on my front door, thunder and lightning is moving in from the SW which wasn't the case yesterday, thunder and lightning wasn't in my weather yesterday, just very heavy rains. I think I'll get off the computer now but I'll check in here later as soon as these storms pass.

[gatorcane]

The Gulf development possibility is over -- time to shift the attention to the Bahamas or just east of the Bahamas. Upper-level winds are favorable there (upper-levelw winds continue to not be favorable for the northern Gulf) and convection/weak low is sagging SE into the Bahamas area.

[HURAKAN]

Not very tropical

[Swimdude]

Here in Waco, TX... 3 days, 5.5 inches of rain. Exhausting and dreary. Ready for some sun and cooler temperatures. At least this massive storm ushered in the beginning of Fall!

[attallaman]

All is quiet here tonight, I did have a few good thunderboomers with lots of lightning this afternoon but they moved through here quick so is the threat of anything developing in the W GOM or the C GOM now gone?

[southerngale]

Here in Waco, TX... 3 days, 5.5 inches of rain. Exhausting and dreary. Ready for some sun and cooler temperatures. At least this massive storm ushered in the beginning of Fall!

Did you move to Waco or are you just visiting? Your profile still says Houston.

All is quiet here tonight, I did have a few good thunderboomers with lots of lightning this afternoon but they moved through here quick so is the threat of anything developing in the W GOM or the C GOM now gone?

Yes, unless some new threat comes along.