ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Derek Ortt]

I think the convection is more due to the interaction with the upper low immediately to its west

[HURAKAN]

Still fighting

[gatorcane]

A small but intense area of convection has blown up on the north side of Fred in the past 3 hours. This is a sign of life, even if shear values are prohibitively high now and will be for the 2 days. Also, Fred is still moving WNW and is 50-100 miles south of the NHC forecast and other model guidance.

Well certainly that is why I have been a bit more interested in Fred the past couple of days despite a general lack of interest from members. A ridge is building in across most of the Central Atlantic over the next week or so and Fred still has a good tight structure albeit being sheared at the moment.

This area does have a chance to regenerate next week, when upper-level winds become more favorable farther west. Question is how much of Fred's remnant low will be left by then?

[breeze]

Not a complete lack of interest, gatorcane - I'm still checking in on the posts and watching Fred,
or what remains of him at the moment!

[brunota2003]

Regardless of how the convection formed, won't it give the circulation a little more lifetime? And the convection does have some red's in it

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Canadian model gives plenty of life to Fred.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Best track keeps ploting.

AL, 07, 2009091318, , BEST, 0, 185N, 354W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Aric Dunn]

well honestly i cant find a model that actually dissipates it anytime soon and actually all maintain a presence till the Bahamas. so by no means can we write it off yet.

[brunota2003]

I think we need a Code Orange...that convection has been there for most of the day, and it is creeping closer to the center and getting deeper...granted, it is still clearly sheared, but this is by no means a remnant low.

1915 UTC VIS:



1915 UTC IR:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

The thing is...they aren't disorganized, they've been concentrated in the same spot, slowly trying to work towards the center against the shear. Secondly, the storms on IR are anything but intermittent...they've been there for over 6 hours at least, maybe even 8 or 12 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Def looks like it has depression status back but Im sure they will wait for persistence before they talk about reincarnation..

[Derek Ortt]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

with this trough basically OVER the storm, the chances of development are slim and none, and I think I saw slim leave the hotel already

[ozonepete]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/C_Atl/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

with this trough basically OVER the storm, the chances of development are slim and none, and I think I saw slim leave the hotel already

I'd have to pretty much agree, but ... Though I think most of us agree the GFS has been really bad with shear, here's its shear forecast for tomorrow morning, for what it's worth. Note the break in the shear developing near and in front of Fred.

[Derek Ortt]

the lower shear may be due to the system being under the UL. Tropical waves usually don't develop there. This type of development is usually at higher latitudes later in the season

[Emmett_Brown]

the lower shear may be due to the system being under the UL. Tropical waves usually don't develop there. This type of development is usually at higher latitudes later in the season

True, but this isn't a wave, it is a closed low pressure area.

[AdamFirst]

Upgraded to Code Orange


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[emeraldislencguy]

It has been updated to ORANGE
Love to read all the why it will not regenerate and then they change it to a code orange
Sometimes the so called experts on here have to eat crow

[jinftl]

Wow....just a couple of hours ago the NHC was saying:

WHILE REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Upgraded to Code Orange


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

That saying comes to the front burner again= (Never say never in the tropics)

[ozonepete]

I think we need a Code Orange...that convection has been there for most of the day, and it is creeping closer to the center and getting deeper...granted, it is still clearly sheared, but this is by no means a remnant low.

Nice call!