ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... _at_0.html

At 1200Z, this had a clear 30 kt barb. Since it has likely strengthened since, I would say this is a 35 kt system. But persistance is necessary before reviving Fred.

[Derek Ortt]

It has been updated to ORANGE
Love to read all the why it will not regenerate and then they change it to a code orange
Sometimes the so called experts on here have to eat crow

a code orange means NOTHING in terms of whether or not this regenerates.

It only means the NHC forecaster on duty believes it has a slightly better chance to regenerate than previously. The dynamics have not changed one bit

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Sitting under 50 kt of shear. It is in the most hostile location shear-wise in the entire North Atlantic right now. How it is managing to even produce convection in such extreme shear is beyond me. Mid-level shear is also extremely hostile. But if it can survive and move west, look out.

[ozonepete]

This is related to what I just posted before - the shear is easing up because the upper trough/ TUTT is easing and lifting a little more to the north. That's allowing thunderstorms to blow up closer to the center. There is legitimate concern at the NHC that this could regenerate now. Seems wholly justifed to me.

[emeraldislencguy]

how can you say it means nothing about regeneration but the NHc pust out a spceial statement about the remnants of Fred--it must muean something to them

[ozonepete]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Sitting under 50 kt of shear. It is in the most hostile location shear-wise in the entire North Atlantic right now. How it is managing to even produce convection in such extreme shear is beyond me. Mid-level shear is also extremely hostile. But if it can survive and move west, look out.

Remember that those CIMSS charts, while quite good, are CURRENT shear and the trend chart is what's happened in the last 24 hours, not what's going to happen. Also, CIMSS charts like these can be off by a 100 or more miles at times because shear and other mid to upper level winds are hard to measure way out there with pinpoint accuracy. And it is possible for shear to drop by 20 knots or more in a few hours. The thunderstorm blowups near the center tell us that there has to be less shear than the charts are saying.

[Derek Ortt]

the CIMSS charts are also dependent upon the NOGAPS analysis for the shear

[cycloneye]

This convection has been all day long as Brunota2003 said.

[jinftl]

If this map is indicative of the shear, there is a alot less shear over the remnants given the approx location....the last advisory had fred downgraded to a remnant low at 17.7N 33.7W. If drifting west, the remnants are under 20kts or so of shear and heading west would bring lower shear.

[Aric Dunn]

It has been updated to ORANGE
Love to read all the why it will not regenerate and then they change it to a code orange
Sometimes the so called experts on here have to eat crow

a code orange means NOTHING in terms of whether or not this regenerates.

It only means the NHC forecaster on duty believes it has a slightly better chance to regenerate than previously. The dynamics have not changed one bit

its ok derrek just say it..
Slim and his friends have come back to the hotel we have seen crazier development than this...

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/C_Atl/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

with this trough basically OVER the storm, the chances of development are slim and none, and I think I saw slim leave the hotel already

[brunota2003]

The center is at roughly 19.0N 35.0W...or you can check the BT too

BT has it at this:
18.5N 35.4W

[Aric Dunn]

72 hours 200mb map.. that trough that Fred is under is forecast to weaken and bring with it more favorable conditions..



and actually both the nogaps and gfs have more of a divergent upper environment more of a split flow which may lessen the shear some.. only time will tell of course..

[brunota2003]

If you look at the water vapor loop, the moisture envelope is gradually getting larger. Where all that moisture is coming from I dunno though, look at all the dry air it is pushing against to the west! There is also more moisture working it's way towards Fred, thanks to our friend the tropical wave off to the east.

[gatorcane]

As for shear, I have been pointing out for the past couple of days now how the shear does drop off dramatically farther west. IFF (if and only if) it can make it that more favorable area, will it regenerate.

Looks like it is something to watch at least.

[jlauderdal]

[brunota2003]

OT: That bear really needs to go see a dentist...like, NOW

[breeze]

I just popped back in and - code orange! Very good call, brunota!

Looks like Fred ain't dead...for now.

[jlauderdal]

OT: That bear really needs to go see a dentist...like, NOW

probably needs a bottle of mouthwash too

[emeraldislencguy]

does anyone think Fred might become a depression or storn again
what are the odds
would love to hear some thoughts on this

[jinftl]

Going with the NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook odds:

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

does anyone think Fred might become a depression or storn again
what are the odds
would love to hear some thoughts on this