Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130636
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY U/L OVERHEAD AND VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HEATING HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INDUCE DAILY TS
ACTIVITY OVER DIURNALLY FORCED LOCATIONS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS AND LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN THE LOW TO MID LAYERS. BY
MONDAY SITUATION BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS U/L PROGGED TO SINK
SOUTH OVER THE LEEWARDS...INDUCING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION TO
TRAVERSE SE CARIBBEAN AND BEING A DECENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. MOVING
AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED AS TUTT DRIFTS WEST...PUTTING FA IN FAVORABLE EASTERN
SECTION. DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH QPF. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-22Z TSRA WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TJMZ AND TJBQ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 76 / 40 10 20 20
STT 87 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
10/93
FXCA62 TJSJ 130636
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY U/L OVERHEAD AND VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HEATING HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INDUCE DAILY TS
ACTIVITY OVER DIURNALLY FORCED LOCATIONS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS AND LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN THE LOW TO MID LAYERS. BY
MONDAY SITUATION BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS U/L PROGGED TO SINK
SOUTH OVER THE LEEWARDS...INDUCING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION TO
TRAVERSE SE CARIBBEAN AND BEING A DECENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. MOVING
AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED AS TUTT DRIFTS WEST...PUTTING FA IN FAVORABLE EASTERN
SECTION. DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH QPF. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-22Z TSRA WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TJMZ AND TJBQ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 76 / 40 10 20 20
STT 87 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
10/93
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131039
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/S MEXICO AND
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N
E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 12N22W THEN ALONG 8N39W 12N53W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N26W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 13N22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 37W-44W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ FROM 57W-61W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA THROUGH APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA THEN OVER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ALONG THE NE COAST OF
TEXAS TO 29N95W THEN S TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N95W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS S TEXAS TO 26N100W. A STRONG
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
S TO 20N COVERING THE GULF W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 26N84W EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N93W TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W
INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 74W-84W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 75W-82W. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 68W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N
FROM 41W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 30N56W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 53W-56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N54W TO
11N54W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO 30N ANCHORED NEAR 19N21W AND
PROVIDING THE SLY SHEAR OVER A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...CENTERED NEAR 17N34W AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
HUC wrote:THE GREAT HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 1928
81 years, in 1928 september the 12th,a tremendous and devastating hurricane destroyed Guadeloupe,living more than 1.200 people dead terrific winds,deluge orf rain and a 4meters storm surge...at today despite the violence of Hugo "cyclone 28 "is the most intense over Guadeloupe. Then,Monserrat,ST Kitss...then ,Luis,the day after,Puerto Rico was leveled by this hurricane at this time,a category 5 and very long lasting. Then,after that "cyclone 28" caused a lot of devastations in Florida.
So prayers for all the victims,remembering....Does somebodygot photos of this hurricane???
Hey HUC go on this new thread that Cycloneye has opened about THE GREAT HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 1928

Regards Gustywind

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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 131458
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHED ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS EARLIER
THIS MORNING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED
BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 131458
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHED ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS EARLIER
THIS MORNING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED
BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131537
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST TJSJ 12Z U/A SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF TFFR...AND THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCT SHOWED DECREASING OVERALL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT...AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH AREA NOW BEING IN RIGHT THE
REAR QUADRANT OF 45 KNOT JET MAX...WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH
REFLECTED THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA
AND MODERATE BUILDUPS STREAMING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S.V.I AND EASTERN PR. SOME OF THE ISOLD SHRA
WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER TJNR...TJSJ AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
DURG THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCAL TAFS SITES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST INTERIOR...TJBQ...AND TJMZ BTWN 13/18-13/22Z
WHERE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
FXCA62 TJSJ 131537
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST TJSJ 12Z U/A SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF TFFR...AND THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCT SHOWED DECREASING OVERALL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT...AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH AREA NOW BEING IN RIGHT THE
REAR QUADRANT OF 45 KNOT JET MAX...WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH
REFLECTED THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA
AND MODERATE BUILDUPS STREAMING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S.V.I AND EASTERN PR. SOME OF THE ISOLD SHRA
WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER TJNR...TJSJ AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
DURG THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCAL TAFS SITES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST INTERIOR...TJBQ...AND TJMZ BTWN 13/18-13/22Z
WHERE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131903
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF EXPLOSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. EXPECT VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE TUTT LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS TO DRIFT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...IN TANDEM WITH A SURGE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR THE VERY GOOD DIURNAL COVERAGE
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL DIMINISH OVER PR BY 14/00Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. AFT 14/16Z...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ACTIVITY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PR TO BRING LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
A VCTY OR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMA...TJBQ AND TJSJ
BETWEEN 14/18-14/23Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...AS OF 3PM AST...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.85 INCHES HAD
ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
THIS RAINFALL SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.05 INCHES WHICH
FELL ON SEPTEMBER 13TH 2008. IN ADDITION...THIS WAS THE MOST
RAINFALL RECORDED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE
OCTOBER 10TH 2005...WHEN 4.02 INCHES FELL...AND SO FAR THIS HAS
BEEN THE 19TH WETTEST DAY ON RECORD IN SAN JUAN. RECORDS AT THE
AIRPORT DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1ST 1956.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 76 90 / 20 20 20 30
STT 78 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
09/04
FXCA62 TJSJ 131903
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF EXPLOSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. EXPECT VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE TUTT LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS TO DRIFT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...IN TANDEM WITH A SURGE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR THE VERY GOOD DIURNAL COVERAGE
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL DIMINISH OVER PR BY 14/00Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. AFT 14/16Z...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ACTIVITY OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PR TO BRING LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
A VCTY OR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMA...TJBQ AND TJSJ
BETWEEN 14/18-14/23Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...AS OF 3PM AST...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.85 INCHES HAD
ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
THIS RAINFALL SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.05 INCHES WHICH
FELL ON SEPTEMBER 13TH 2008. IN ADDITION...THIS WAS THE MOST
RAINFALL RECORDED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE
OCTOBER 10TH 2005...WHEN 4.02 INCHES FELL...AND SO FAR THIS HAS
BEEN THE 19TH WETTEST DAY ON RECORD IN SAN JUAN. RECORDS AT THE
AIRPORT DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1ST 1956.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 76 90 / 20 20 20 30
STT 78 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
09/04
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145336
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.
UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.
UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 131950
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF SAINT CROIX.
THE WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER LAND. ON MONDAY...SIMILAR
DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER ONE OR TWO OF THE
ISLANDS. EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AND
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT OVERALL
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 131950
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST SUN SEP 13 2009
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF SAINT CROIX.
THE WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER LAND. ON MONDAY...SIMILAR
DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER ONE OR TWO OF THE
ISLANDS. EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AND
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT OVERALL
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
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- cycloneye
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
ABNT20 KNHC 132332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...WHICH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...WHICH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132340
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N OF A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 18N35W...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 34W-36W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ORIGINALLY
FORMED AS A FRACTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE
TROUGH STALLED DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF FRED AND THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE REGAINING WWD MOVEMENT AND IS
NOW RE-ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL WAVE. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 24 HR
TROUGH POSITION THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. REFER TO THE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N17W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 14N22W CONTINUING ALONG 9N30W 7N40W 10N50W 12N57W 10N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 23W-25W
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-34W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT LINES THE N GULF FROM N
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W ALONG 31N87W 30N90W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR
HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND S FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 26N93W 21N94W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W. RECENT LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 87W-90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM 22N-28N
E OF 87W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE ERN GULF CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA
NEAR 23N83W. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 93W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN
69W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA N 19N BETWEEN 75W-84W.
BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W CUBA
NEAR 23N83W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N63W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-84W DUE
TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W MOVES WWD INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR
30N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW FROM 31N75W
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING ALONG THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 79N W OF 75W AFFECTING THE
WRN BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-75W. THESE AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE ALSO
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
33N OVER THE NW ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N60W. TO THE NE OF THE HIGH A WARM FRONT DIPS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING ALONG 29N54W 32N55W TO A SURFACE LOW
WELL N OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W-54W. THE ACTIVITY IS
ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NEAR 26N53W AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW ATLC. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE AREA EXTENDING
ALONG 32N35W 39N40W 31N44W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A 1009 MB
LOW...REMNANTS OF FRED...REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N47W TO 28N30W. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SHEER
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N17W ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALTON
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Good monring my carib friends. All is relatively quiet in the Lesser Antilles. Whereas we're waiting for a deterioration of the weather this afternoon and especially tonight. Numerous showers and locally strong tstorms are expected in Guadeloupe tonight, Tuesday shoud be wet too with high chances to deal with showers and isolated tstorms.





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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 140901
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON SEP 14 2009
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE WIND WAS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140617
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 AM AST MON SEP 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NORTHEASTERN FA WITH LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL INDUCED TROUGHING TO
BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARDS REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AS TUTT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES WEST TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DEEP CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER ASSISTANCE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT LEAST NUMEROUS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN PUERTO AND
AREAS OF STREAMER ACTIVITY LAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECTING THIS PATTERN
TO PERSIST NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WED
AND THU. LITTLE CHANCE INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THAT TUTT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH END OF
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-22Z
TEMPO TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TJMZ...TJBQ AND VC TJSJ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 76 / 20 20 30 30
STT 88 79 88 77 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
10/93
FXCA62 TJSJ 140617
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 AM AST MON SEP 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NORTHEASTERN FA WITH LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL INDUCED TROUGHING TO
BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARDS REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AS TUTT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES WEST TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DEEP CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER ASSISTANCE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT LEAST NUMEROUS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN PUERTO AND
AREAS OF STREAMER ACTIVITY LAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECTING THIS PATTERN
TO PERSIST NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WED
AND THU. LITTLE CHANCE INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THAT TUTT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH END OF
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-22Z
TEMPO TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TJMZ...TJBQ AND VC TJSJ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 76 / 20 20 30 30
STT 88 79 88 77 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
10/93
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 140547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
...THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

ABNT20 KNHC 140547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
...THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140525
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS NOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N15W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N23W CONTINUING ALONG 8N31W 8N43W 12N57W 10N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N23W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
15N26W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY THROUGH PENSACOLA FLORIDA
THEN OVER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR HOUSTON
TEXAS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
27N94W TO 24N97W. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N COVERING THE GULF W OF
90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED NEAR 23N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF
91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI AND CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO A
1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W NARROWING
ALONG 26N70W TO BEYOND 32N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W
TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 30N40W THEN NW 32N46W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 20N21W
AND PROVIDING THE SLY SHEAR OVER A 1010 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...CENTERED NEAR 19N36W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 140525
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS NOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N15W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N23W CONTINUING ALONG 8N31W 8N43W 12N57W 10N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N23W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
15N26W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY THROUGH PENSACOLA FLORIDA
THEN OVER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR HOUSTON
TEXAS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
27N94W TO 24N97W. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N COVERING THE GULF W OF
90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED NEAR 23N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF
91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI AND CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO A
1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W NARROWING
ALONG 26N70W TO BEYOND 32N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W
TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 30N40W THEN NW 32N46W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 20N21W
AND PROVIDING THE SLY SHEAR OVER A 1010 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...CENTERED NEAR 19N36W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG

ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG


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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141044
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 12N.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N24W CONTINUING ALONG 9N35W 8N43W 9N53W 9N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 40W-50W AND FROM THE ITCZ N TO
15N FROM 50W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA THEN OVER NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1006 MB LOW N OF HOUSTON TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N94W TO 23N96W. A STRONG
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO 25N W OF 89W WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
25N84W EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SCENARIO
COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING ALL
BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W
ALONG 25N88W TO N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA
BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
76W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N67W TO A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 66W NARROWING ALONG 27N66W TO
BEYOND 32N58W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W
NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W-47W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N38W TO 30N46W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND
32N49W. THE REMNANTS OF FRED...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
20N32W 22N36W TO 20N40W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 19N19W AND
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE

This small area of moderate convection should bring showers and isolated tstorms throught the Windwards Leewards today within the next couple of hours...

AXNT20 KNHC 141044
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 12N.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N24W CONTINUING ALONG 9N35W 8N43W 9N53W 9N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 40W-50W AND FROM THE ITCZ N TO
15N FROM 50W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA THEN OVER NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1006 MB LOW N OF HOUSTON TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N94W TO 23N96W. A STRONG
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO 25N W OF 89W WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
25N84W EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SCENARIO
COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING ALL
BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W
ALONG 25N88W TO N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA
BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
76W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N67W TO A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 66W NARROWING ALONG 27N66W TO
BEYOND 32N58W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W
NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W-47W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N38W TO 30N46W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND
32N49W. THE REMNANTS OF FRED...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
20N32W 22N36W TO 20N40W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 19N19W AND
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
This small area of moderate convection should bring showers and isolated tstorms throught the Windwards Leewards today within the next couple of hours...

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