WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 0914 (Choi-wan)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 14 September 2009
<Analyses at 14/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°35'(15.6°)
E148°20'(148.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E440km(240NM)
W330km(180NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 190
WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 15.6N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 17.4N 146.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 160000UTC 19.5N 142.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.9N 139.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2009

...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR SAIPAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
165 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
270 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST AT 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES EAST...DRIFTING WEST AT 5 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON/EDSON

[CrazyC83]

It looks more like a Category 2 to me now...85 kt, pressure 969mb is my guess...

[StormingB81]

Wonder if this thing will take a turn or not. Crazy how it went Southwest yesterday and noone said that. Wonder how that will effect the track.

[cycloneye]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:03 N Lon : 147:59:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 961.4mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 5.7 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt15W.html

[cycloneye]

Intensity going up fast.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2009 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:36:45 N Lon : 147:56:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 956.6mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 5.4 5.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -12.1C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[StormingB81]

The below is on JTWC are the ysaying it may curve back to the northwest maybe comming into Japan?

WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH JAPAN (WHICH IS DIGGING
SOUTH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED) WEAKENS THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES

[cycloneye]

0300z Advisory from JTWC=75kts

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.2N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.3N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.3N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.2N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 147.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

LATEST

[StormingB81]

Looking very well orginized. The eye is starting to get defined. It may hit as a Cat 2 or higher.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a high end Cat. 2 to me. Could be a 3 soon.

[brunota2003]

Did the eye disappear or?

[StormingB81]

Its looks like it. See if it wants to keep the same track or change that also

[cycloneye]

PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.3N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.8N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.2N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 147.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TY 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A CORRIDOR OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AVERAGING T4.5.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS DERIVED FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND FROM
A 140530Z HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE WITH A THIN
CIRRUS CANOPY. TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF TWO MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A VERY STRONG TYPHOON (IN
EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS) AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND ADJACENT
TO ECMF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Raw power

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 275
WTPQ50 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 15.7N 147.8E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 17.0N 145.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 160600UTC 19.1N 142.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 170600UTC 20.8N 138.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 180600UTC 23.0N 137.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
120HF 190600UTC 26.8N 139.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140922
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 PM CHST MON SEP 14 2009

...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN INTENSIFYING EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 7 PM CHST...0900Z...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
135 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
145 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
205 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
255 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
ALAMAGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.9 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST...DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM
TUESDAY.

$$

BAQUI

[HURAKAN]

The eye is visible in this radar loop

[Macrocane]

It looks very good, I say it's 95-100 kt at this time, let's see what JTWC and the JMA say on the next warnings.