ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Ivanhater]

The big question is what will be left of Fred as the consensus of the models is after going north,then turns west.

Remnant swirl of clouds like the wave ahead of it? It's NOT heading for the Caribbean or the U.S.

These certainty posts always find a way to come back to burn

[cycloneye]

Best Track again keeps tracking it in the 00 UTC update.

AL, 07, 2009091400, , BEST, 0, 187N, 362W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

Looks like shear is winning

[Gustywind]

I worry about storms with 4 letters in their name...Erin, Opal, Ivan...

I'm not very fund of 3 letter storms neither.(Ike).

in 4 letters do not forget EDNA in 1953, GERT in 1981, JOSE in 1999, DEAN more recently in 2007 and last year OMAR! I'm not very fund of 3 letter storms neither: DOG in 1950.

[IvanSurvivor]

Hugo, Luis, Cleo, Inez, Erin, Opal, Ivan, Edna, Gert, Jose, Dean, Omar...Coincidence, I think not Fred...J/K

[Derek Ortt]

this is still unlikely to come near the USA or Caribbean. Low likely will dissipate within the next 48 hours.

[BigA]

this is still unlikely to come near the USA or Caribbean. Low likely will dissipate within the next 48 hours.

I don't understand why. All the shear maps that I've looked at show shear collapsing in the next 48 hours, and even if that did not happen, why would shear affect a remnant swirl that doesn't reach high enough into the atmosphere to be sheared? Is it because with a lack of convection, the low level circulation will dissipate?

[brunota2003]

this is still unlikely to come near the USA or Caribbean. Low likely will dissipate within the next 48 hours.

I don't understand why. All the shear maps that I've looked at show shear collapsing in the next 48 hours, and even if that did not happen, why would shear affect a remnant swirl that doesn't reach high enough into the atmosphere to be sheared? Is it because with a lack of convection, the low level circulation will dissipate?

Yes...without convection to keep the wheel turning, it slowly spins down until it eventually opens up.

[AdamFirst]

It's starting to trek across the shear gauntlet...lets see if it survives over the next day

[gatorcane]

Looking at the NHC outlook from 8pm EST, I don't think I have ever seen where it indicates that upper-level winds are unfavorable but yet a tropical storm could still form.

At any rate, convection continues to wane tonight as shear continues to pound the remnant low. One thing I do notice is that the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, even looking at IR. Upper-level winds are dropping off out ahead of the low, but it won't hit them for a couple of more days.

In all likelyhood, it likely it will not regenerate again, but it is something to just keep an eye on every so often in case it decides to regenerate. Even if it does regenerate the models seem to drop heights off coast Eastern North America by day 7, which would force a recurve anyway.

[blazess556]

00z Gfs has Fred hitting GA/SC
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Typhoon_Willie]

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...WHICH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


I guess we will have to wait and see if regeneration of Fred will occur.

[Derek Ortt]

it hits as a weak wave

[blp]

00z NOGAPS regenerates Fred and strengthens it under a ridge toward the end.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009091400

[Hurricaneman]

that gfs image is in 174, it could be stronger than what is shown because of the resolution that far out, and thats still too far out to tell where this is going

right now we dont even know if this will survive, but if it stays south of 19n this will not regenerate, but if this is north of 19n this has a fighting chance to possibily regenerate into a tropical storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

00z CMC still has Fred coming back.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[RattleMan]

Back to yellow:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
...THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[alan1961]

Convection trying to work its way into the circulation.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track.

AL, 07, 2009091412, , BEST, 0, 190N, 390W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest