WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KOPPU (16W)

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 4:47 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.1N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.7N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.6N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP,
CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS STARTING TO WRAP INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING THE SYSTEM
TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. TS 16W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD-
DRIFTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA BY TAU 36
AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE 131730Z PGTW FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 131752Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING
UNFLAGGED 40-KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
SAME AMSRE IMAGE WHICH UNCOVERS A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 5:03 pm

This system could be stronger than shown by the JMA and the JTWC

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 6:55 pm

ZCZC 599
WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0915 KOPPU (0915)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 20.0N 116.1E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 20.9N 112.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 22.2N 109.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 161800UTC 23.1N 106.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:31 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 19.9N 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.9N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 115.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JTE50 · #25 Postby **JTE50** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:52 pm

Koppu has an eye on latest vis sat picture and JTWC is saying 45 knots. I don't think so!

#26 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:53 pm

Based on the appearance of this storm in visible and microwave images, I would place the intensity closer to 50-55 knots.

#27 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 10:14 pm

Maybe even 60...if that were a system in the Atlantic, it'd be a cane

Macrocane · #28 Postby **Macrocane** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 10:29 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Maybe even 60...if that were a system in the Atlantic, it'd be a cane

I think that it will be a "phoon" before making landfall. It has really improved its appearence since earlier today.

#29 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 11:15 pm

14/0230 UTC 19.9N 115.7E T4.0/4.0 KOPPU -- West Pacific

Rapid intensification underway.

#30 Postby **beaufort12** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:29 am

Maybe it's me but this thing seems to have been moving to the NW the past few hours. Here in Shenzhen, we've had some squalls this afternoon, it's breezy but hightest wind gust so far was 29 mph. Barometer 29.53". HK saw gust to 60mph recently. Based upon the radar there's some heavy rain headed this way.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:30 am

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 115.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 115.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.7N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.5N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 114.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (KOPPU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 16W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, REACHING THE CUSP OF TYPHOON STRENGTH, WITH DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (PGTW) TO 65 (KNES) KNOTS. TS
16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 24 AND DISSIPATING OVER LAND NEAR TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-
WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:49 am

Closer to landfall

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:53 am

ZCZC 147
WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0915 KOPPU (0915)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 20.6N 114.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 230NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 22.3N 111.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 23.0N 108.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

wc is my initials · #34 Postby **wc is my initials** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:17 am

10-minute winds are actually approaching hurricane force in the southermost islands in Hong Kong.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/index_wind_e.htm

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:45 am

WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.9N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 113.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (KOPPU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 12 BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 11:06 am

Looks like a typhoon

Macrocane · #37 Postby **Macrocane** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 11:09 am

JMA and JTWC have underestimated the intensity of this system, either 10 min or 1 min sustained winds it looks like a typhoon.

#38 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 11:20 am

14/1430 UTC 21.1N 113.7E T4.5/4.5 KOPPU -- West Pacific

77 knots says Dvorak

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:06 pm

ZCZC 397
WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0915 KOPPU (0915)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 21.1N 113.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 22.4N 109.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161200UTC 22.6N 107.9E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

#40 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:19 pm

Looks to be making landfall now. Also seems to have weakened a bit - probably peaked around 75 kt around 1500Z.

WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KOPPU (16W)

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (16W)

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

Re:

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (16W)

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