Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

I think our meteorologist, David Best, said last night that the system presently in our area is a combination of the tail end of a TW, a low level trough and the ITCZ. I heard just a bit of thunder earlier but we in the south of the island have hardly any rain so far while many parts in the northwest have been experiencing pretty bad flooding.

However, having just peeked outside, it looks like we in the south are about to get lots of rain too!

Thought we might have escaped this one in the south but looks as though it is coming in from the direction of South Point just looking at it coming off the sea now

Yep. And the thunder is starting up again. Judging from this water vapor loop, moisture is definitely increasing all around us. I’m afraid I’m going to have to shut down the computer and unplug it to protect it from power surges due to lightning (the thunder is starting to get louder).

Bye for now.

~ abajan

Be prudent Abajan and Caribsue, tkanks for all these infos!
Be safe and dry...Whereas, Meteo-France in their latest weather forecast said that Guadeloupe could be under an yellow alert this afternoon for a risk of showers and tstorms...due to an active twave. They emphasize on the fact that a few tstorms could bomb during the night . I will keep your informed as possible.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON SEP 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW TO MID LEVEL TUTT REFLECTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TUTT LOW
NOW LOCATED BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRAILING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW HELPED TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PART OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL OVER PUERTO
RICO WAS LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...AS THE STORMS SLOWLY STEERED
WEST NORTHWEST BY THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER EXPECT SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATIONS OF THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE UPPER TUTT/LOW PROPAGATING
SLOWLY WESTWARD WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY
REMNANTS OF FRED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE LOCAL AREA FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

[abajan]

Be prudent Abajan and Caribsue, tkanks for all these infos!
Be safe and dry...Whereas, Meteo-France in their latest weather forecast said that Guadeloupe could be under an yellow alert this afternoon for a risk of showers and tstorms...due to an active twave. They emphasize on the fact that a few tstorms could bomb during the night . I will keep your informed as possible.
Gustywind

It turns out that shutting down and unplugging my computer was unnecessary because the lightning never got very close. Better safe than sorry, though. Since my last post, we had steady light rain but it has now abated. One notable feature was how quickly night closed in because of the overcast conditions.

[Gustywind]

Martinica and Guadeloupe are under an yellow alert since 5PM. Meteo-France expect amounts of water near 60 to 100 millimeters in Guadeloupe. The max of the activity shoud be near Martinica and Guadeloupe. Abundant showers and numerous tstorms should be present on the islands of Guadeloupe tonight but tommorow too...Conditions should improve tommorow night of really Wednesday.
Stay tuned.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Be prudent Abajan and Caribsue, tkanks for all these infos!
Be safe and dry...Whereas, Meteo-France in their latest weather forecast said that Guadeloupe could be under an yellow alert this afternoon for a risk of showers and tstorms...due to an active twave. They emphasize on the fact that a few tstorms could bomb during the night . I will keep your informed as possible.
Gustywind

It turns out that shutting down and unplugging my computer was unnecessary because the lightning never got very close. Better safe than sorry, though. Since my last post, we had steady light rain but it has now abated. One notable feature was how quickly night closed in because of the overcast conditions.

waouw! I just experienced a small line of showers in my location but very gorgeous...nothing serious given what you are describing in Barbados Abajan . All is calm here, but pretty cloudy. Let's be vigilant in all the islands.

[Gustywind]

Be safe in Barbados my friends...


Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 14, 2009 - 10:00 PM EDTSep 14, 2009 - Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 150200Z 12011KT 9999 FEW010CB SCT014 BKN035 26/24 Q1015

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 PM (2) Sep 14 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 13
9 PM (1) Sep 14 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 13
8 PM (0) Sep 14 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 14
7 PM (23) Sep 14 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 10 rain
6 PM (22) Sep 14 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) E 9 rain
5 PM (21) Sep 14 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 6 rain
4 PM (20) Sep 14 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) E 8 light rain
3 PM (19) Sep 14 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.97 (1015) E 16 light rain with thunder
2 PM (18) Sep 14 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) E 12
1 PM (17) Sep 14 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) SSE 7
Noon (16) Sep 14 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) SE 7

[Gustywind]

Quiet tropics
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 14, 2009 8:33 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

The remnants of Hurricane Fred, continue to move westward over the open waters. Occasionally showers and thunderstorms flare on the north and northwest side of the system. This system is not a threat to land, but will be monitored as it continues on a westerly track for any sustained redevelopment.

An area of low pressure has developed along an old frontal boundary northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions are not favorable for development at this time. This low is not expected to develop as a tropical cyclone.

A tropical wave brings an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity to the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday. Strong westerly winds in the upper atmosphere will prevent this system from developing as it moves through the Caribbean the next few days.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 150154
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST MON SEP 14 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRED MAINLY OVER
WATERS WITH A FEW SPOTTY ONES MOVING ONSHORE.

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
ST. CROIX WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN INDUCED
TROUGH AT LOW LEVELS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TOMORROW.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150212
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST MON SEP 14 2009

.UPDATE...THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL MUNICIPALITIES AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DISSIPATED RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED
BY THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PREVAILED LATE IN THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES CONTINUE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
(TUTT) ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
TUTT LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...POSITIONING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WILL DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE AN INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRAS AND TSRAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15/1600Z...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR TO BRING LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS A VCTY OR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 15/1800-15/2300Z. TJSJ
15/0000Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO AROUND 20K FEET....BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 142352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS S OF
14N. THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH A VERY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE N OF 11N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN
62W-68W...REMAINING MOSTLY OVER INLAND VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N22W AND DISCONTINUOUS
TO 11N30W THEN CONTINUOUS ALONG 9N42W 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST
FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 6N22W TO 8N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS NEAR 32N94W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WESTERLY NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT. A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO 25N94W
THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WRN GULF. FARTHER TO THE E OVER THE N/CENTRAL
GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
25N90W. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 90W...ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE WRN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM POMPANO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CARIBBEAN
W OF 68W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED
S OF WRN CUBA NEAR 21N81W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COVERS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 63W...INCLUDING MOST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N67W TO A
1011 MB LOW IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N74W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR
POMPANO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC
N OF 30N. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 66W NARROWING ALONG 27N64W TO 29N59W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN
300 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 55W-61W. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...A 1012 MB LOW...IS CENTERED NEAR 19N40W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED NW OF THE LOW FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 41W-43W. FARTHER TO THE SE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...A DISCONTINUOUS AREA OF THE ITCZ CONTAINS A 1012 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N25W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 25W-30W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 20N17W THAT COVERS THE
ERN ATLC FROM 10N-32N E OF 38W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC
BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 25N E OF 50W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

Have a good night all and be especially vigilant. Msbee i know that you're here so have a good night and keep us informed if anything happens in the Norther, Leewards.
Regards Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 AM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CENTER OF U/L LOW JUST SOUTH
OF ST CROIX...WITH 00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMING 60KT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER. SOME VORT ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING ISO TS ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
MAIN AREA OF PW ASSOCIATED WITH U/L IS MOVING OVER THE WINDWARDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER AREA WED-THU. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTING NUMEROUS TS ACTIVITY OVER NW
PR...AS U/L MOVES SW BRINING PR INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK OF TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED WED-THU AS
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION HELPS PULL ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE
LEEWARDS...USVI AND FINALLY PUERTO RICO.

BY FRIDAY U/L MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND BEGINS TO
FILL...YET DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL ABOUND AND LEAD TO
NUMEROUS TS ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PR. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND
ANOTHER U/L LOW DEEPENS JUST NE OF THE LEEWARDS AND SETS THE STAGE
FOR A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DEEPENING U/L MOVING OVER FORECAST AREA AND DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE
OVERHEAD.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 150855
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED MAINLY OVER WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
ST. CROIX WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN INDUCED
TROUGH AT LOW LEVELS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TOMORROW.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends. The night was very calm, this active twave has been pretty stationnary and the activity has slightly diminished. Whereas this morning given the radar of Meteo-France numerous strong showers and tstorms are heading near the Guadeloupe.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
8N13W 8N30W 8N43W 10N53W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W...TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
ALONG 87W/88W TO THE NORTH OF 27N. A COLD FRONT HAS MADE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF CLOUDS IN
THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY MARKS THIS FRONT QUITE
WELL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 70 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM OF PUERTO RICO IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND
15N93W IN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N72W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
26N74W AND ANDROS ISLAND. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N72W AND 23N74W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W TO 22N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N40W TO A SMALL 23N49W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
11N48W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. THE 1013 MB
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED IS NEAR 20N45W. A SECOND
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N28W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N30W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND
29W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Seems thats this twave does not want to give and even crossing the islands So we're waiting just a bit more, but since 15 minutes light showers are coming here. Thunder is rumbling kindly. Guadeloupe and Martinica always under an yellow alert. Stay tuned






Latest in Guadeloupe:
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 15, 2009 - 10:40 AM EDTSep 15, 2009
2009.09.15 1440 UTC
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 151440Z 11013KT 080V140 9999 TS FEW015CB SCT025 29/25 Q1016 TEMPO 3000 TSRA RMK M8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 AM (14) Sep 15 84 (29) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) ESE 15 thunder
9 AM (13) Sep 15 80 (27) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) E 5 showers in the vicinity
8 AM (12) Sep 15 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 10
7 AM (11) Sep 15 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) Variable 1
6 AM (10) Sep 15 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Variable 1
5 AM (9) Sep 15 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ESE 2
4 AM (8) Sep 15 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) E 2
3 AM (7) Sep 15 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ENE 2
2 AM (6) Sep 15 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ENE 1
1 AM (5) Sep 15 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ESE 2
Midnight (4) Sep 15 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 3

[cycloneye]

KNHC 151745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE