WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[RattleMan]

Now tied with Cyclone Hamish in March for most intense storm of 2009.

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 17.6N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 325NM EAST 260NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 19.5N 143.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 170600UTC 21.4N 140.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 180600UTC 24.1N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[StormingB81]

What is the ALL-TIME record? Does anyone know?

[HurricaneBill]

What is the ALL-TIME record? Does anyone know?

Super Typhoon Tip 1979
Category 5
Pressure: 870 mb (25.69 in) (measured by recon)
JTWC: (1-min sustained) 165KT
JMA: (10-min sustained) 140KT

Tip eventually weakened to a Category 1 before making landfall on Japan. Despite this, 113 people lost their lives in Japan due to Tip.

[Dave C]

Look out Iwo Jima in 3 days
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJAW.html

[cycloneye]

Is super-typhoon according to JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.7N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.8N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.4N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 32.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 145.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE RADIAL EXPANSION
OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF STY 15W AND IS STARTING TO
IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, EVIDENT IN ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TUTT CELL APPEARS TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY, SO AS STY 15W TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN THE SEPARATION DISTANCE, DECREASING THE OUTFLOW
BENEFIT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY FACTORS, INCREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE LEADING TO
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago. WOW

[HURAKAN]

LATEST

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 135 kt IMO.

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo up to T7.0 now so we are looking at 100 or maybe even 105kts next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storms

[Macrocane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Amazing storm! I knew that there couldn't be a WPAC season without a supertyphoon. Though in terms of 1-min sustained winds is still weaker than Jimena I guess it will be a cat 5 later today tying Jimena in winds and beating her in pressure. I think it will continue to intensify based on the very good satellite apperance, the symmetric structure, the excellent outflow and the favorable conditions.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 135 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.3N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.3N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.0N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 29.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.8N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 411
WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 17.9N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.7N 141.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 171200UTC 21.9N 139.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 181200UTC 24.9N 139.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

[bombarderoazul]

Which one was stronger Hamish or Jimena?

[HurricaneRobert]

I would say Jimena since pressures are a bit higher in the eastern Pacific. NHC also bumped up the wind speed after it had weakened a bit so they missed it at its peak.

[CrazyC83]

915mb = strongest storm this year so far in the world.

[CrazyC83]

Since it has likely continued to strengthen since the synoptic time of 1200Z, 140-145 kt may not be all that unreasonable.

[HURAKAN]

Cat 5 look

[HURAKAN]

The size Choi-wan compared to the US