Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
30N92W 28N92W 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
19N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
84W-86W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY 5-10 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS W OF
THE FRONT...AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 23N88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TEXAS.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE REACHING THE NE CUBAN COAST FROM 21N-22N
BETWEEN 76W-78W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 17N66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W. EXPECT...
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE SYSTEM. A 1013 MB LOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
46W-48W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THIS LOW
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 29W-32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N49W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N29W.
EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE TWO
SURFACE LOWS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151559 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1159 AM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED THIS MORNING
SO FAR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. MINOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOME SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREA.

ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATE ACCORDINGLY TO SHORT TERM
WEATHER EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEFLY MVFR FOR TJBQ FROM
18Z TO 22Z...AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 88 77 / 30 30 50 20
STT 88 79 89 78 / 40 40 50 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/09

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 151520
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
ST. CROIX WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN INDUCED
TROUGH AT LOW LEVELS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

PRC003-005-011-013-017-027-039-054-065-071-081-099-115-117-131-141-
152115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0264.090915T1825Z-090915T2115Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LARES PR-
BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
225 PM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...FLORIDA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN
SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LARES...BARCELONETA...
CAMUY...HATILLO...RINCON...ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 217 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE ARECIBO
AREA WESTWARD TO THE MUNICIPALITY OF AGUADILLA. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY HIGHWAY 22 FROM ARECIBO TO AGUADILLA.
ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING
OVER ARECIBO...SAN SEBASTIAN AND MOCA AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW NOW SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW. EARLIER 12Z TJSJ U/A SOUNDING 50-60 KNOT JET MAX
MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH GENERAL NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW. 700-500 MB TUTT REFLECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO TAPER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAND DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY STILL PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY PUERTO RICO WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL AID IN ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FILL. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AROUND...TO AID IN DIURNAL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND AGAIN INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER...AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

[Gustywind]

Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 15, 2009 9:38 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

In the Atlantic Ocean the remnants of Hurricane Fred continue to produce periodic thunderstorm activity in the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. It appears that the low level circulation is getting weaker as it moves westward at 15 mph. At this time regeneration into a tropical depression or tropical storm is unlikely.

An area of low pressure is producing moderate thunderstorm activity just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development as the low moves westward away from the islands.

A tropical wave just to the east of the Lesser Antilles is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in Barbados, the Grenadines and Grenada. This wave moves west spreading the rain north and westward through the remainder of the Lesser Antilles over the next two days.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 152100
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.
WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF ST. CROIX
WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN INDUCED TROUGH AT LOW
LEVELS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

[Gustywind]

Large system, but hopefully convection has diminished a bit since this morning. We should experience some possible strong showers locally and isolated tstorms. Yellow alert have been maintained for the night, but should be dispruted tommorow morning...meaning a return in green alert. I have some infos about this twave
Latest measurements of Meteo-France during this episode:

Pretty modest amounts have been reported in Guadeloupe: 10 to 20 millimeters in numerous areas of Grande-Terre and also in vicinity of les Saintes, Marie-Galante, and la Désirade. Whereas, 30 to 50 millimeters have been estimated in the north tip of the island, near Ste-Rose, Deshaies.

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa...


SAL has really diminished...on Africa and thus on the entire Atlantic Ocean




Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 15:25 GMT le 15 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 23:01 GMT le 15 septembre 2009
A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1320

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:21 GMT le 15 septembre 2009

The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED MAINLY S OF
JAMAICA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N13W 10N27W 9N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST
AND WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM 8N-14N E OF A LINE FROM 8N14W TO
14N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
19W-26W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND SUPPORTS
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NE LOUISIANA NEAR 33N92W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR CAILLOU
BAY AND INTO THE NW GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N91W
24N97W. VERY DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING MOST CONVECTION
ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N28N
BETWEEN 90W-92W AND ARE MOVING ENE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OVER THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN GUATEMALA. THIS SURFACE
FEATURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS SRN
MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF
A LINE FROM 19N92W TO 22N96W OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 86W. THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTROL THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WRN
CUBA NEAR 22N82W AND EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE WEST AND EAST TO 71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W.
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH N-NE FLOW ALOFT AND THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W
AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N72W WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 22N77W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALOFT OVER THE LOW AND IS AIDING IN
SUSTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STRETCHED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W
ATLC FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER TO THE SE...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W IS PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW ARE FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANT OF FRED...IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N47W. NEW SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED
N OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW IS W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 17N30W. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 28W-33W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED AND SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA OVER
THE TROPICAL ERN ATLC TO 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST TUE SEP 15 2009

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WX GRIDS FOR DAY 1...TO
INCREASE POPS...CLOUD COVERAGE AND QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH...SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DUE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER SCENARIO. UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE FA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU 16Z. VCTS AT JBQ/JMZ WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN A HISTORICAL NOTE...ON SEPTEMBER 15-16,
1995...HURRICANE MARILYN AFFECTED PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MARILYN PRODUCED EXTENSIVE TO SEVERE DAMAGE ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT THOMAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 100-115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHEN THE
EYE OF MARILYN MADE LANDFALL IN SAINT THOMAS. ALSO...IN SEPTEMBER
15, 2004...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE AFFECTED
BY TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT THAT MOMENT OF 70
MPH. JEANNE ENDED UP MAKING LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
OVER SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR MAUNABO AROUND NOON TIME ON THE
15TH.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends This twave is always there and consequently Guadeloupe is always under an yellow alert. Seems that PR could get some rain of this feature given the latest weather forecast...Be vigilant Luis and keep us informed as usual and as possible
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160703
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 AM AST WED SEP 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN LEVEL TUTT IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...GENERATING FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT LOW...MOVING WNW ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AT AROUND
SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ENOUGH HEATING WILL OCCUR TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN AFFECTING
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING
SATURATED SOILS...TODAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SAME AREAS THEREFORE RIVERS COULD REACT FASTER THAN NORMAL AND
LANDSLIDES COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS.

A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT THE TUTT
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION BY
FRIDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO ONCE AGAIN GENERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...A VCSH OR SHRA WILL AFFECT TJPS AND TIST THROUGH AT LEAST
16/13Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. AFT 16/16Z...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN
16/17-23Z. A VCSH AND BKN CLD DECK OF 8-10KFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARINERS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOOKOUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 50 20 40 20
STT 87 78 89 78 / 50 30 40 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 160907
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST WED SEP 16 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATING ACROSS SAINT CROIX. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
EASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH...AND THE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...SO FAR THIS MORNING.

A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH OF
SAINT CROIX...WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY...WITH MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SAINT CROIX. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160537
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC FOR GOES-12 IR3 IMAGERY...AND THROUGH
0530 UTC FOR METEOSAT8 IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 11N14W TO 9N27W 9N40W 10N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 8N26W 6N40W 10N47W 11N60W. STRONG SHOWERS
IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS COVER THE AREA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 110 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL
PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND
65W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MADE UP OF A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...WITH A WARM FRONT GOING FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W...AND A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N74W AND TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N76W
27N72W BEYOND 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OF CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 31N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N45W TO
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 19N51W TO 12N55W. THIS FEATURE ENGULFS
THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED. THE 1013 MB
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED IS NEAR 20N48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 15N30W ABOUT 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Latest sat pics about the twave crossing the islands of the Lesser Antilles:

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Yes,a rather wet day is instored here.Lets see how it goes in terms of amounts of precipitation.

[Gustywind]

Good news for us in Guadeloupe, Meteo-France has just discontinued the yellow alert . Back to green alert (no threat).
Whereas we could experience showers locally strong but the weather conditions are improving steadily given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France Guadeloupe .