Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.Yes,a rather wet day is instored here.Lets see how it goes in terms of amounts of precipitation.

Hi "Superman" , glad to read you hope you're in shape. Be dry, but let's see what happens from this feature...

[Gustywind]

Webcam of Le Moule in Guadeloupe cliclk here http://www.antilles-info-tourisme.com/webcam/

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N14W 8N26W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N34W 8N42W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL
PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE VENEZUELA
COASTAL WATERS TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. OTHER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W
INCLUDING ON TOP OF BARBADOS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AND THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI
AND 84W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MADE UP OF A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...WITH A WARM FRONT GOING FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W...AND A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N74W AND TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W 27N72W BEYOND 31N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N45W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
19N51W TO 12N55W. THIS FEATURE ENGULFS THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED. THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF FRED IS NEAR 19N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
55W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N31W ABOUT 330 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W.

$$
MT

[msbee]

good morning

sunny quiet day here. looks like all that rain is passing south of us unfortunately. we still need rain.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
124 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

PRC001-013-027-059-065-071-073-081-111-113-115-131-141-153-162015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0266.090916T1724Z-090916T2015Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
UTUADO PR-YAUCO PR-LARES PR-GUAYANILLA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-
PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-ARECIBO PR-
124 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
UTUADO...YAUCO...LARES...GUAYANILLA...CAMUY...HATILLO...PONCE...
PENUELAS AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 118 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER UTUADO NORTHWEST TO
CAMUY AND ISABELA. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING IN THE HEADWATERS OF
RIO PORTUGUES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC075-113-133-162200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0043.090916T1904Z-090916T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ
PONCE
SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 257 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NEAR SHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARD SANTA ISABEL...PONCE AND VICINITY. THIS
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC031-087-127-162115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND LOIZA

AT 406 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER CAROLINA NEARLY STATIONARY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO SLOW DOWN AND
USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND ROADWAYS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS A REFLECTION
OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW...IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTED THE MID TO UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW JUST SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG
THE NORTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE DEEP LAYERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. THE PREVAILING
EAST TO SOUTH EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER LAND BY LATE EVENING...BUT
UNTIL THEN EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO LEAD TO QUICK RIVER RISES...AND FLOODING OF URBAN AND
SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EXPECT MOSTLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AS WELL AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO INDUCE AND ENHANCE DAYTIME
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AS THE TUTT LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS ANOTHER TUTT LOW ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N77W TO 9N78W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
75W-80W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N26W 7N37W 10N50W
10N63W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N91W TO 26N94W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 86W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR SW GULF FROM
22N92W TO 17N93W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN
92W-95W. BOTH AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW GULF
AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE SW COAST
OF FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
81W-82W. EXPECT THE DYING FRONT TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS A
NEW FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W/78W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
75W-80W...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
15N68W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N
BETWEEN 64W-71W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND ERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 15N E OF 14W AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N71W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
21N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF FRED...NEAR
20N51W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N52W. A SECOND 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS
NEAR 14N32W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 26W-31W IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 29N28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 21N ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

Looks like PR is under heavy downpours What's the weather like in your location Luis?
Stay safe and dry.

[msbee]

lots of rain for PR it seems. hope the people in PR will be careful and safe

[cycloneye]

Looks like PR is under heavy downpours What's the weather like in your location Luis?
Stay safe and dry.

Where I am it hasnt rained as the heavy downpours are falling just south of San Juan and in the SE part of PR.Today some flood advisorys were issued as I posted here today but no damage reported so far.

[Gustywind]

Looks like PR is under heavy downpours What's the weather like in your location Luis?
Stay safe and dry.

Where I am it hasnt rained as the heavy downpours are falling just south of San Juan and in the SE part of PR.Today some flood advisorys were issued as I posted here today but no damage reported so far.

tkanks for these infos Luis. Yes i saw the advisorys glas to see that there's not damage to report. As usual i know that you continue to follow closely the situation...
Be safe

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162329
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER
AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE THAT A
SHALLOW LAYERED WAVE PASSED AROUND 15/0000 UTC. ALSO...HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAM ANALYSIS OF METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
SHOWS THE WAVE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST. THE WAVE ALIGNS
ITSELF ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N21W 10N24W 7N35W
12N60W 11N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 24W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N91W TO 25N94W. THE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NW LOUISIANA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT DIPS
SWD OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF. WHILE THE
SURFACE TROUGH DENOTES A WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE...MOIST SWLY
WINDS ALOFT SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF FROM E/CENTRAL MEXICO
NE TO NRN FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NEWD
FROM SRN MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW GULF
S OF 24N BETWEEN 90W-95W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
WITH A LARGE AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 24N E OF 90W OVER
THE NE GULF. A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N84W AND IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 22N84W. DRY
AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 24N E OF 90W AND IT
KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAINS FAIRLY CALM UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 22N84W. HOWEVER...A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CUBA AND THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FARTHER S...A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN 8N-13N BETWEEN 74W-81W...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 9N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N70W IS SUPPORTING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MOIST
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA TO THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM OVER PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 33N71W
TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM WRN CUBA TO BERMUDA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W IS SPREADING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SW NORTH ATLC AND PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S
OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N53W TO 25N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N52W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N32W AND CONTINUES TO SURROUND ITSELF WITH
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 30W-36W. FARTHER TO
THE N...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE NE ATLC
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 25N29W TO 30N28W WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
26W-30W. ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES S OF 20N E OF 43W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170135 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REA. BROAD
LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW...IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WX GRIDS FOR DAY 1...TO
DECREASED POPS...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING REVEALED MOISTURE STILL HIGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH
PW VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT
MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR TOMORROW...ENOUGH HEATING WILL OCCUR
TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.THEREFORE...NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU 16Z. VCTS AT JBQ/JMZ WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 170131
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

MOSTLY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED BUT MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
SOUTH AND WEST OF ST. CROIX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

Convection associated with this feature seems to diminish tonight...you could have a small rest in PR Luis in spite of the advisorys always there.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 PM AST WED SEP 16 2009

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REA. BROAD
LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW...IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WX GRIDS FOR DAY 1...TO
DECREASED POPS...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING REVEALED MOISTURE STILL HIGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH
PW VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT
MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR TOMORROW...ENOUGH HEATING WILL OCCUR
TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.THEREFORE...NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.