#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:59 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 94.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM WEST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT, CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 170327Z ASCAT PASS IDENTIFIES A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20- TO 25-KNOT WINDS,
THOUGH THE LLCC IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY. A 171130Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND A 171259Z 37H TRMM IMAGE
DEPICT CURVED INFLOW WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION INTO AN APPARENT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LESS HOSTILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). IN ADDITION, AS THE SYSTEM IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, THERE IS DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT OUFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
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