ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Emmett_Brown]

Fred remnant back to code yellow:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
HAS FORMED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. not surprised.. to see low chance..

[deltadog03]

To be honest, the upper air enviroment dosn't look too bad right now. I think its only going to have to fight dry air. Not saying its going to be anything worth noting, but low level conv. is increasing. 850mb looking better as well. We shall see...

[Aric Dunn]

To be honest, the upper air enviroment dosn't look too bad right now. I think its only going to have to fight dry air. Not saying its going to be anything worth noting, but low level conv. is increasing. 850mb looking better as well. We shall see...

speaking of low level convergence.. it has come up a significant amount..
and yeah for the next 24 hours or there is some sinking air over but that should lessen in about 24hrs. so we can only watch and wait to see if Mr. Fred can do the seemingly impossible..lol

[Dean4Storms]

I learned long ago to never say never on an EX-TC when it is still a low and convection occasionally pops unless it is under great shear and/or cold SST's.

[gatorcane]

convection popping tonight, very near or over the center of the surface low.

[deltadog03]

Looks pretty close to the center of that vortex. However, I think the tops are being blown off a bit. Shear dosn't look bad, but its certainly not ideal

[vacanechaser]

How many times will it be said "this should open up and die out" before Fred does not exist anymore in this Universe? There is no doubt there is a nice little low level spin there, we can all see it. Maybe it will come all the way over and reach land in a few days or maybe it really will finally open up and die. So far, it has not done that despite almost a week of people saying it would. It is what it is.

amen.. it seems to never quit...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ozonepete]

hehe. Yellow again! And the NHC is still using "Fred" in its analysis.

"It is what is." I like that, hurricanetrack.

[Blown Away]

The circulation is very clear. I just love the tropics, always full of surprises.

[AdamFirst]

This thing is moving alot faster than I anticipated. Maybe some naked swirl warnings should go up.

[breeze]

It just keeps on going...and going...and going...

[ozonepete]

This thing is moving alot faster than I anticipated. Maybe some naked swirl warnings should go up.

lol would be very funny, category NS

[Blown Away]

This thing is moving alot faster than I anticipated. Maybe some naked swirl warnings should go up.

Even at the current speed it's still 2.5 days if it were to come to Florida. Lots can happen in 48+ hours if the conditions are decent.

[Evil Jeremy]

..... Fred's still there lol?????? Fred is a fighter lol. At this point though, if this system was to reform, would it still be called Fred? It has spouted a new circulation, the old one died.

[Blown Away]

more NAM anyone ..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well if you look at the tight little circulation it is moving rate along the NAM track. It seems a west track is likely w/ the ridge building in. It would be crazy for the NAM to nail a track.

[frederic79]

Ocean temperatures ahead of ex-Fred should gradually increase, assuming the remnants continue westward. Also, shear conditions should improve in the next 48 hours, according to shear tendency maps I've seen. With a ridge building to the north, things could get interesting.

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[Hurricaneman]

new storms seem to be firing near or around the center as of the last 30 min

[Dean4Storms]

Going to need to be watched over the next couple of days for sure and if nothing else should bring some more rain into Florida early next week!