Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends, are you ok? Nothing to report in Guadeloupe, the sky is a bit cloudy but the is trying to shine...
Looking at the Lesser Antilles, seems that the activity associated with the area of showers/Tstorms has fairly diminished.
Hope my friends from PR especially Luis are safe and dry, but the the others too from the Northern Leewards, Barbados too (Caribsue, Abajan).

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170809
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST THU SEP 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A
SECOND TUTT CENTERED NEAR 20 NORTH AND 52 WEST ALSO MOVES SLOWLY
WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAVE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF FIRST
TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...WITH
BRIEF AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF SECOND TUTT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS FROM DEPARTING TUTT HAVE ALLOWED SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR ST CROIX AND VIEQUES WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS WEATHER TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE AND GFS DATA WOULD INDICATE DRYING THROUGH TODAY...FEEL
THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THEREFORE...LEFTOVER DEEP
MOISTURE...AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT UPPER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL AREA DESTINED TO BE NEAR/ALONG A WATER
VAPOR DISCONTINUITY. THAT SAID...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER
STOPPER FOR TODAY...WOULD BE IF TOO MUCH EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS
LINGERS AND DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD HEATING. ANYWAY...
GIVEN EXPECTED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEATHER...DECIDED TO
INCREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND POPS FOR TODAY...BUT EXPECT BULK
OF WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT
OVERALL "DRIER" AIR MASS...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WORK ON SEA
BREEZE "POOLED" LOW TO MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...TO PRODUCE AT
SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...A VCSH OR SHRA WILL AFFECT TJPS...TISX AND TIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 17/13Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. AFT 17/16Z...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 17/17Z AND 23Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJPS...THE VI...TKPK AND TNCM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 40 20 20 20
STT 88 78 89 78 / 40 30 30 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 170907
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST THU SEP 17 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE VERY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY THREE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATING ON SAINT
CROIX. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY EASTERLY NEAR 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND THE MOST
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE TO
THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY FAIR AND NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED....ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 13N23W 9N30W 8N40W 8N50W INTO GUYANA NEAR 6N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 8N26W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N34W 8N42W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N101W.
A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE UPPER COAST TO
THE MIDDLE COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN MEXICO FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
FROM 22N97W BEYOND 30N87W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF THE 30N87W FLORIDA PANHANDLE LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N72W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND
80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM COASTAL
VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN THE WATERS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO COASTAL
SOUTHERN CUBA BETWEEN WESTERN HAITI AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL EL SALVADOR NEAR
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N73W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO
21N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN
46W AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N52W 23N55W 26N57W.
THIS TROUGH IS THE LAST REMNANT OF FRED. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W TO 28N26W 26N29W TO 21N32W TO TO
18N36W TO 10N41W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W
AND 30W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...
AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF IT AND MORE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 17, 2009 5:16 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the Atlantic, the remnant circulation of Fred was located about 450 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, while continuing to move west.

Although some shower and thunderstorm activity continues to flair up, upper-level winds are rather hostile and are not conducive for any tropical development.

[Gustywind]

What's up in Africa...as we're in the peak of the season right now

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 23W/24W
AT 17/0000 UTC WAS NOT ALL THAT EASY TO DISCERN IN MY OPINION
AT 16/1800 UTC IN THE THEN-CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT CONTINUES TO BE AS NON-EVIDENT NOW AS IT WAS TWELVE HOURS
AGO. I REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHAT PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT FOR THIS
ONE. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT STILL
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.
THESE CLOUDS AND WHATEVER AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DO NOT
VERIFY OR AUTHENTICATE THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

15N16W 12N30W 10N40W 7N50W INTO GUYANA NEAR 6N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N100W.
A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SOME SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN A LINE FROM 23N91W NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N73W...
AT LEAST 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA
TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM COASTAL VENEZUELA TO JAMAICA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PANAMA COAST
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 19N TO COASTAL SOUTHERN CUBA
BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N72W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 29N72W 26N73W 22N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 62W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS THE LAST REMNANT OF FRED IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 20N TO
28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 49W AND 61W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND
53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N27W...TO 26N29W TO 21N32W TO 18N36W
AND 10N41W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS THERE FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 25W AND 30W IS DWINDLING NOW EVEN MORE AND MORE.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W...AND FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
48W AND 53W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF IT AND MORE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[msbee]

Good morning
I thought you might like to see my sunrise pictures I posted on stormcarib this morning.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

[Gustywind]

Good morning
I thought you might like to see my sunrise pictures I posted on stormcarib this morning.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

perfect pics my Msbee, i appreciate sincerely

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 171456
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 AM AST THU SEP 17 2009

A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ITS
TERRITORIAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AS DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY EAST...SOUTHEAST AT 10MPH OR LESS.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE MOST FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171533 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 AM AST THU SEP 17 2009

.UPDATE...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED
PASSING SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO FROM CEIBA SOUTHWARD TO MAUNABO AND
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE
SHOWED WITHIN THE LAST 10 MINUTES OVER PARTS OF CAYEY...COAMO...
VEGA BAJA...MANATI AND UTUADO.

OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 23W/24W HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG
19W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WHILE A BURST OF CONVECTION WITH
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW DID EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL WAVE AXIS FOLLOWED BEHIND
IT. A 17/0000 UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES A
STRONGER AND MORE CONCLUSIVE SURFACE WIND SHIFT INDICATING THE
WAVE PASSAGE...JUSTIFYING THE RELOCATION. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 18W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N20W 9N25W 11N32W 7N42W 9N52W
10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LOUISIANA TO NEAR
29N92W INTO THE NW GULF EXTENDING TO SRN TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 23N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO LINE THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
82W-83W. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN
AND CENTRAL GULF. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SE GULF AND INTO THE WRN ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CALM DUE TO MODERATE DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W...SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N
BETWEEN 76W-81W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 67W-78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 63W-66W. BOTH
AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
15N74W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W TO CONTINUE W AND OUT OF THE
BASIN BY TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 35N69W ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N.
SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 33N62W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANT OF FRED...IS ANALYZED FROM 21N59W TO 27N61W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS 21N-26N BETWEEN 59W-63W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N53W
IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
50W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N46W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 28N26W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU SEP 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY HAS QUICKLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM CWA WHILE IT TRACKS WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 20N 54W IS PROJECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE IN FROM OF THIS LOW WILL
DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...NOT PERMITTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS
SUGGESTED BY 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING...WHICH CAME OUT WITH 1.85 PW VALUE
VS 2.09 FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT. ALSO...THE SAN JUAN ASOS GPS-MET
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR ESTIMATED VALUES HAVE CAME
DOWN FROM OVER 2 INCHES TO 1.78 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT THROUGH
NOW. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND PARTS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...INDUCING MUDSLIDES AND MINOR ROADWAYS FLOODING
MAINLY OVER UTUADO AND VICINITY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING.

THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH OR MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AREAS.
IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...PASSING SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA OF PONCE...MAYAGUEZ AND
AGUADILLA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET (BRIEFLY MVFR FROM
20Z TO 22Z FOR TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 89 / 20 20 20 30
STT 78 89 78 88 / 30 30 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/17

[Gustywind]

Things continue to be curiously quiet in the tropics...whereas we should continue to look to our east as we're especially in the peak of the season! The Weather Channel and the Weatherwunderground are calling for that...

James Wilson, and M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Sep. 17, 2009 5:03 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

In the Atlantic, the remnant tropical wave of Fred was located several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, while continuing to move west.

Although some shower and thunderstorm activity continues to flair up, upper-level winds are rather hostile and are not conducive for any tropical development.



Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 19:55 GMT le 17 septembre 2009 —
Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:04 GMT le 17 septembre 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1322

Quiet in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Fred are generating a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near 23N, 61W. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains do not have a surface circulation, and the organization of ex-Fred has degraded to point where NHC is no longer mentioning the system on their Tropical Weather Outlook. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred continues to suffer from dry air thanks to an upper-level low pressure system, and it is unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. None of the computer models call for any tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

[Gustywind]

We should continue to look to our east in spite of the relative apparent calm over the entire Atlantic. Remeber...things can turn quickly in the tropics and heat up at anytime in September, please don't forget it islanders! Tkanks, i appreciate

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
HAS FORMED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

Increasing winds shear continue to prevent any quick developpement between the CV islands the Lesser Antilles, good news for us, let's hope that this trend will continue


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Gustywind]