Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hey, we don't have much infos about Barbados since Tuesday, hope you're ok after these numerous episodes of strong showers and tstorms? (Abajan, Caribsue, Cosme). Don't forget to keep us informed and give us some news...
We're fine in the Leewards, we're enjoying our little paradise as many others carib islanders .
Regards
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Keeping an eye on the twave near 20W...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE FAR
ERN TROPICAL ATLC AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ALSO...CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF 850 MB
VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-15N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-17N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
NOTED ON TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
ERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-86W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N21W 11N32W 8N38W 7N44W 9N56W
10N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 24W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH ERN LOUISIANA AND
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ALONG 29N90W SW TO 24N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 93W-98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N85W TO 24N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING N OF 26N OVER THE NE
GULF AND INLAND OVER THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN LOUISIANA WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DIPPING ACROSS THE NW GULF TO 23N W OF 88W. WITH MOIST SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL
GULF...THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE NE
GULF IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SRN FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT EXTENDS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 80W-87W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
15N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE BETWEEN 75W-80W
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. MOIST TROPICAL AIR...
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...AND LIFT GENERATED FROM THE UPPER LOW
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 62W-75W. ONE AREA OF MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-72W...INCLUDING ERN PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC NEAR 30N72W
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N71W SW
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 75W-78W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS RIDGING TO ANOTHER UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N71W. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW
...REMNANT OF FRED...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N62W AND EXTENDS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N62W THROUGH THE LOW TO 27N61W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 59W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N52W AND
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 50W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N45W. NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DISPLACED NORTH FROM THE ITCZ AXIS REGION
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 34W-38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA
ALONG 15N17W TO 8N40W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN

[abajan]

Hey, we don't have much infos about Barbados since Tuesday, hope you're ok after these numerous episodes of strong showers and tstorms? (Abajan, Caribsue, Cosme). Don't forget to keep us informed and give us some news...
We're fine in the Leewards, we're enjoying our little paradise as many others carib islanders .
Regards
Gustywind

We’re fine, Gustywind. After about 3 days of overcast conditions, the sun came out in all its glory yesterday (Unfortunately, that meant the heat was back too!)
Thanks for asking.

[Gustywind]

Hey, we don't have much infos about Barbados since Tuesday, hope you're ok after these numerous episodes of strong showers and tstorms? (Abajan, Caribsue, Cosme). Don't forget to keep us informed and give us some news...
We're fine in the Leewards, we're enjoying our little paradise as many others carib islanders .
Regards
Gustywind

We’re fine, Gustywind. After about 3 days of overcast conditions, the sun came out in all its glory yesterday (Unfortunately, that meant the heat was back too!)
Thanks for asking.

Yes, glad to see that Abajan . Tkanks for answering

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...AND
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 17N.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE IS CONTRIBUTING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR TO
WESTERN HONDURAS. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 15N76W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER REACHES
EASTERN NICARAGUA. A FEW OTHER SMALLER-SIZED AREAS OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

12N24W 12N35W 11N41W 9N50W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 24N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N76W...
AT LEAST 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W.
THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND
74W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 68W
AND 72W. OTHER DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA DIRECTLY UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 15N76W
CENTER. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THAT HAVE SPUN AWAY FROM
THE 15N76W CENTER HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST
OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ERODED AWAY. IT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND SLOWLY-ENCROACHING UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 31N72W TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N57W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
14N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N64W IS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE FRED. A TROUGH
GOES FROM 29N63W TO THE REMNANT LOW CENTER...AND THEN TO 19N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AROUND THE REMNANT LOW CENTER COVER
THE AREA FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. THE CHANCE OF THE
REMNANT OF FRED DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE REMNANT OF FRED...
COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. OTHER
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO 26N26W TO 16N40W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
13N38W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. THE CHANCE OF THE 13N38W MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 180917
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WIND WAS VARIABLE AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SOLAR HEATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY STEERING WINDS EXPECTED...THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PROBLEMATIC
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. WHILE
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED AGAINST
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY AND THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS REGION
TODAY...AS NEAR SATURATED SOILS REMAIN.

WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING...TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI
AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
DEVELOPING MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ...BETWEEN 17Z
AND 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 88 76 / 30 20 30 30
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

$$

06/04

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends, when i was saying that things can turn quickly (yesterday night)...here we are INVEST 98L is up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/0600 UTC 13.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 INVEST
17/2345 UTC 12.6N 37.4W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

[Gustywind]

The Lesser continues to be quiet this morning...let's enjoy this day

Further east...looking at 98L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 17N.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO EITHER HAS DIMINISHED
AND/OR IT HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ...

14N24W 13N36W 11N41W 9N50W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND
32W...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MULTIPLE
TROUGHS ARE BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N93W 29N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 21N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N77W...
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
WHOLE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND 82W IN
THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THAT
HAVE SPUN AWAY FROM THE 15N77W CENTER HAVE MOVED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ERODED AWAY. IT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND SLOWLY-ENCROACHING UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 31N72W TO 28N76W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N68W 29N74W...ACROSS SOUTHERN ANDROS
ISLAND TO 23N78W AT THE CUBA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N58W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. THE
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N64W IS THE REMNANT
OF HURRICANE FRED. A TROUGH GOES FROM 28N63W TO THE REMNANT LOW
CENTER...AND THEN TO 22N64W. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION COVERS
THE AREA FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. OTHER POSSIBLE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE CHANCE OF THE REMNANT OF FRED DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ARE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE REMNANT OF FRED...COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
18N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 26N26W TO 16N40W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N38W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND
38W. THE CHANCE OF THE 13N38W MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Track history of 98L...
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html
Invest #98
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 13.3N Lon: 38.5W Moving: W 7 mph (6 kts) Pressure: 29.8 in (1009 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
0600 FRI SEP 18 13.3N 38.5W W 7 (6) 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
0000 FRI SEP 18 13.4N 37.9W W 8 (7) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1800 THU SEP 17 13.5N 37.2W W 8 (7) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1200 THU SEP 17 13.6N 36.5W W 9 (8) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
0600 THU SEP 17 13.6N 35.7W - - 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)

[Gustywind]

98L has it own floater... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
Here are some pics of 98L, looking good...

[Gustywind]

Code orange

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 181359
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAINLY BETWEEN ST CROIX AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 13N39W CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 35W-38W. UPPER LEVEL WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF 85O
MB VORTICITY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS DEPICTED BY THE CIMSS WAVETRAK
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED ONLY TO THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE
E PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO THE E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 16N23W 13N30W 9N43W
11N56W 9N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 28W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W ALONG 27N92W 26N98W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT LINES THE NERN GULF EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N83W ALONG 30N86W 31N91W TO A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LINING THE NW COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 83W-85W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. THE
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N102W COVERS THE FAR SW
GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SW GULF. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC NEAR 29N73W EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SE
GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT IN
THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
20N W OF 82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 15N78W AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 70W-82W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-67W. THESE SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED BY
MOIST SLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS W-SW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N65W TO 24N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N46W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES TO THE SE
CENTERED NEAR 21N58W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
25N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE ATLC WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N22W TO 22N37W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN